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Stock performance.

Arkady

President
One of the few bright spots since Trump took office was that the great Obama-era stock market had grown even more strongly under Trump. With recent setbacks, I was curious if that was still the case.

Based on its last close (2342.87) and its close on Obama's last day (2271.31) the S&P 500 has risen at an annualized pace of 13.42% on Trump's watch, which is excellent in historical terms. However, it's also a slight let-down relative to Obama-era trends. The annualized growth rate during his eight years was 13.84%.

Now, to be fair, it's unrealistic to expect Trump to live up to Obama's high standard. The Obama years were epic for stock investors, and that was bound to moderate. If we can hold to something in the double digits while Trump is president, I'll be content with that. Similarly, if we can average an additional 158,000 jobs per month during his presidency (the average of his first two months), that'll be fine, even though that would be a letdown relative to each of Obama's last six years. I just hope these slowdowns don't signal the start of greater future weakness.
 
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the notion that Janet Yellen's post election Fed interest rate hikes were going to push the market higher was always hilariously wrong headed.

I'm surprised it went higher at all.

we have 8 years of pent up interest rate manipulation by the government - holding rates "near zero" no matter what was happening in the real world.

that is going to be corrected, one way or another.
 

Bugsy McGurk

President
One of the few bright spots since Trump took office was that the great Obama-era stock market had grown even more strongly under Trump. With recent setbacks, I was curious if that was still the case.

Based on its last close (2342.87) and its close on Obama's last day (2271.31) the S&P 500 has risen at an annualized pace of 13.42% on Trump's watch, which is excellent in historical terms. However, it's also a slight let-down relative to Obama-era trends. The annualized growth rate during his eight years was 13.84%.

Now, to be fair, it's unrealistic to expect Trump to live up to Obama's high standard. The Obama years were epic for stock investors, and that was bound to moderate. If we can hold to something in the double digits while Trump is president, I'll be content with that. Similarly, if we can average an additional 158,000 jobs per month during his presidency (the average of his first two months), that'll be fine, even though that would be a letdown relative to each of Obama's last six years. I just hope these slowdowns don't signal the start of greater future weakness.
Hey, at least wingers are now noticing rising markets - they never mentioned the soaring markets under Obama.

Last month's jobs numbers were weak at best - we'll see what happens next month. This is an experiment - is the US economy so strong that it can thrive even with relentless lunacy coming from the White House?
 

Arkady

President
the notion that Janet Yellen's post election Fed interest rate hikes were going to push the market higher was always hilariously wrong headed.

I'm surprised it went higher at all.

we have 8 years of pent up interest rate manipulation by the government - holding rates "near zero" no matter what was happening in the real world.

that is going to be corrected, one way or another.
It's odd you'd call it manipulation. Inflation was below target, and the market was anticipating it remaining below target for years. The five year forward inflation expectation rate was below 2% at every point between mid 2015 and early November 2015. Textbook monetary policy says you don't raise rates when inflation is already too low and expected to stay that way. My criticism of Yellen is the opposite: that she has hiked rates prematurely. There was no justification for hiking rates starting in December 2015. Until actual rates stay above target for a year, or exceed target by a couple points, or 5-year expectations exceed target by over a point, the Fed has no business putting on the brakes. Their target is already so absurdly conservative that we don't need them adding further caution on top of that by slowing the economy before we even get to the target. There's a lot more downside risk from hiking rates too early than hiking them too late.

Still, although I fault the Fed for being too stingy, I'd be surprised if that was having a big impact on stock performance since rates remain low enough that the cost of money is an almost negligible consideration for stock investors. It's not like they're being tempted into CDs or savings accounts by the higher rates.
 

Arkady

President
Hey, at least wingers are now noticing rising markets - they never mentioned the soaring markets under Obama.

Last month's jobs numbers were weak at best - we'll see what happens next month. This is an experiment - is the US economy so strong that it can thrive even with relentless lunacy coming from the White House?
Job creation, historically, has a lot of momentum, so I wouldn't expect a big change there for a while. For better or worse, what we see in the first six months or so of the Trump presidency is attributable to Obama. I wouldn't fault Trump for last month's weakness. Stocks are different, though. They can turn on a dime. So, it was fair to credit Trump with the strong performance we initially saw. Investors were pricing in the value of expected tax cuts -- if dividends and capital gains come with a smaller expected tax cost, the underlying security is worth more. It was effectively a reaction to an expected wealth transfer to the investor class. But sustaining growth in stock values takes improvements of fundamentals, not just that kind of short term gain from an expected alteration of the rules of the tax game. We'll see if growth can continue at a decent pace now that tax expectations are priced in.
 

Bugsy McGurk

President
Job creation, historically, has a lot of momentum, so I wouldn't expect a big change there for a while. For better or worse, what we see in the first six months or so of the Trump presidency is attributable to Obama. I wouldn't fault Trump for last month's weakness. Stocks are different, though. They can turn on a dime. So, it was fair to credit Trump with the strong performance we initially saw. Investors were pricing in the value of expected tax cuts -- if dividends and capital gains come with a smaller expected tax cost, the underlying security is worth more. It was effectively a reaction to an expected wealth transfer to the investor class. But sustaining growth in stock values takes improvements of fundamentals, not just that kind of short term gain from an expected alteration of the rules of the tax game. We'll see if growth can continue at a decent pace now that tax expectations are priced in.
Yup. Trump inherited soaring markets and a record streak of monthly jobs growth and economic growth.

Or, as Trump puts it in his typical Orwellian fashion, "a mess."

;-)
 

Arkady

President
Yup. Trump inherited soaring markets and a record streak of monthly jobs growth and economic growth.

Or, as Trump puts it in his typical Orwellian fashion, "a mess."

;-)
Labeling a situation like he inherited a mess shows what contempt Trump holds his base in. Even GW Bush never thought that little of his people. In 2000,he campaigned on the idea he could make a good situation even better, rather than trying to construct an alternate reality where the situation was disastrous. But to a greater degree than any Republican before him, Trump truly appreciates just how stupid the conservative masses are. He gets that you can feed them any nonsense, and through sheer repetition convince them it's true.
 

Bugsy McGurk

President
Labeling a situation like he inherited a mess shows what contempt Trump holds his base in. Even GW Bush never thought that little of his people. In 2000,he campaigned on the idea he could make a good situation even better, rather than trying to construct an alternate reality where the situation was disastrous. But to a greater degree than any Republican before him, Trump truly appreciates just how stupid the conservative masses are. He gets that you can feed them any nonsense, and through sheer repetition convince them it's true.
Trump is a true practitioner of The Big Lie. Absurd lying served him well in business, and he brings the same approach to the presidency.
 
One of the few bright spots since Trump took office was that the great Obama-era stock market had grown even more strongly under Trump. With recent setbacks, I was curious if that was still the case.

Based on its last close (2342.87) and its close on Obama's last day (2271.31) the S&P 500 has risen at an annualized pace of 13.42% on Trump's watch, which is excellent in historical terms. However, it's also a slight let-down relative to Obama-era trends. The annualized growth rate during his eight years was 13.84%.

Now, to be fair, it's unrealistic to expect Trump to live up to Obama's high standard. The Obama years were epic for stock investors, and that was bound to moderate. If we can hold to something in the double digits while Trump is president, I'll be content with that. Similarly, if we can average an additional 158,000 jobs per month during his presidency (the average of his first two months), that'll be fine, even though that would be a letdown relative to each of Obama's last six years. I just hope these slowdowns don't signal the start of greater future weakness.
When you publicly predicted "massive devaluation" of the stock market after the election, but privately didn't change your own positions, I knew you understood what a Trump presidency meant for the markets. Well done.
 
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