Yes, indeed, degs. FACTS do matter. Please show me any "fact" where I have ever referred to Obama as being a socialist. You are quite right that the majority of people only "think" they know the definition of all these labels tossed around - socialist, nazi, fascist, yada, yada. Discussions on who is or isn't is an exercise in futility as far as I'm concerned. I don't use labels because I DO comprehend just how slippery a slope they can be - unlike the individual you are attempting to defend.
Ok fair enough. Your agreement with Cicero's claim of "socialism" makes your distancing a dubious claim but ok
And what FACT supports your statement that the Senate will not end up a Pub majority? Or do you just gaze at your navel and spit out these opinions?
Demographics. (wrote a longer treatise onthis but the browser ate it, so if what I say doesn't make sense ask and I will elaborate)
18-29yo in 08 went for Obama 67:31 outReaganing Reagan's 84 victory that has lead to 30 years of GOP over-representation
86 - like 2010 was an offyear and Reagan lost seats. But unlike Obama in 2010, the "vulnerable GOP" did not survive. Whereas the GOP spent 10s of millions trying to unseat the Dems in MD, CA, OR, WA and NV. and failed.
Its true that 7 Dems are retiring vs. 2 GOP but of those 7 only 2 seats are really open (NDak and VA) Meanwhile the GOP has 2 vulnerable seats (Snowe and Brown) both running negatives higher than their positives in states that are pro-obama.
in 08 the 18-29yos were 18% of the electorate, and where they showed up at 15%+in 2010 the GOP went down in flames. Meanwhile the economy has improved and GOP Congressional Negatives HAVE GONE UP.
And now its 18-33yos. and they make up roughly 22% of the electorate. that's a locked in 14% edge (assuming only REAGAN level approval vs. Obama's 6 point higher win) that you have to net beat in the rest of the demographics. But if you look at even the 2010 numbers - you don't have that 14% edge.
So there is almost zero chance the GOP will pick up 4 seats. In fact there is a decent chance it will lose 1-2 seats.