Nope no pipe dreams. Regardless of who wins the Whitehouse - unless the Dems also win the House, we will have a recession in 2013. And that recession will be triggered EITHER BY
Sequestration spending cuts
or
House GOP Budget cuts.
Eitherway the GOP in Congress get the blame. And that will be expressed in the next elective opportunity - namely 2014
And then you woke up. Your view is predicated on ongoing recession -- and if Obama is reelected and there is ongoing recession, no way does anyone but Obama take the blame. He's got a fight on his hands before November, Degs (he's speaking in my neighborhood today -- you should see the set-up. It looks like the circus came to town). He'll get the blame, especially if the presidential election is at all close.
If he's not reelected, the GOP might get the blame, but only if the economy stays the same or worsens. If there's any identifiable uptick, all that goes out the window.
Again, the rate at which they vote is steady. in 2008 it was 18% of the electorate. Weighted average means that now its 24% (18-33yo) OR HIGHER as the older ones start voting more regularly.
In 2008, they turned out in much higher numbers than they have in years past. And incase you missed it, you're still lumping an inactive group of voters (18-24 year olds) in with an active group of voters (25-34 year olds). And your still making the invalid assumption that they'll continue to vote the way they did the first time (I know, I know, you can cite a study -- I can cite a study, too).
You have real data? I doubt it. I think you're making an assumption that the political pressures that caused the FICA cap to be put in place no longer exist. In what way?
Um no. They are dying younger because of poverty. Sorry. Years Worked will do fine. Because for those dropping out of HS and starting work (more lilely to be minority) or working Full time while in HS - they WILL see their eligibility age come down.F
It doesn't matter WHY they're dying younger, Degs, the perception is that they don't receive enough benefits because they die younger, and at best your solution to the problem does nothing to change that.
Which is precisely why the House goes Dem in 2014
Oh, the Ryan budget will do a number of good and popular things -- it simply won't solve the Social Security problem.
2014 is far too far away to make predictions.
BTW, there's nothing "white elephant" about SS or Medicare. Its just a governance issue.
Degs -- a "white elephant" is a profitless investment that one can't dispose of -- about as apt a description of Social Security as can be made. It isn't "just a governance" issue its the "third rail" of American politics, which is why the changes you think can fix it, via governance, won't work. The public will rebel and throw out the fixers.
The gotcha is that the GOP has opted to "not do" governance for the last 30 years. And THAT's the "elephant" we are paying for.
And the Democrats have done anything better? Get real. The Democrats have tried to do nothing to solve the Social Security issue.