Good article on climate

Bernard_Fokke said:

and some new data...

This winter's wild weather got its start 4,000 years ago, a new study finds.


The roaring jet stream, whose swooping winds drove frigid cold in the East and record warmth in the West this winter, first started twisting and turning about 4,000 years ago, according to a new analysis of ancient rainfall records from North America. Jet stream winds race from west to east, and kinks in the narrow atmospheric current can suck Arctic cold south or hold warm air in place.




http://news.yahoo.com/frigid-winter-blame-4-000-years-wild-jet-174247112.html

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fairsheet said:

Temperatures don't necessarily grow incrementally cooler, from the equator to the poles. The northern and southern jetstreams serve as a divider or "fence" of sorts, between the warmer air closer to the equator and the cooler air closer to the polls.

As you'd expect, the earth seeks to equalize itself. But because of this "fence", it's not quite so simple as the equator "giving" a few degrees to the poles. Although...this "fence" is not inviolate, so an increase at the equator will eventually lead to an increase at the poles.

In the meantime, at least in terms of observable "weather" (that which we see on the news every night!) it's more useful to think of the earth "moving" that fence toward or away from the equator/poles.

So....if it gets warmer at the equator, the earth will move the jetstream south in an attempt at equalization - which of course, draws observable winter weather towards the equator, even as the average temperature of our entire atmosphere may be rising.

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Bernard_Fokke said:

I've wondered about the effect of the warming ocean on hurricane development in our future.

Being that a hurricane or tropical cyclone south of the equator develop in a belt around the globe of roughly 40 degrees.

It's roughly 20 degrees North and 20 degrees South latitudes this 40 degree band is where the hot water is that the hurricanes feed off of. So what happens when the ocean warms enough and now the hurricanes/cyclones can develop as far as say 35-40 degrees N/S?

Bigger, stronger, longer lasting and more destructive? Methinks that the scenario is somewhat set and in motion as we speak and only a matter of time.

Glad I don't live on the coast anymore ans life could get interesting in a hurry when the Mother of all storms comes to visit.

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fairsheet said:

Our bigger concern - at least in terms of "total disaster"! is the "ocean conveyor belt" or thermohaline circulation. We don't know what sort of temperature change might disrupt what human civilization has been built around.

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Bernard_Fokke said:

There are some schools of thought that the period known as "The Little Ice age" that froze Europe from around 1250 to 1650 was caused by a change in the conveyor in the Atlantic.

More recent studies indicate it's again at risk due to infusions/intrusions of fresh water potentially from massive ice melt due to warming, if this happens again it will be quite disruptive to the entire world.

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fairsheet said:

Chances are pretty good that you and I won't be living it - for whatever that's worth. Personally...at least from my personal PNW perspective, I continue to be amazed at the fact that the general "state of nature" is actually considerably better not only than when I was a kid, but per the cataclysms we were expecting and this was BEFORE global warming was indentified. When it's said and done, I'll have lived in a pretty godamned special era. I hope my grandchildren do as well.

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Bernard_Fokke said:

Amen to that!

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EatTheRich said:

Does PNW mean "Pacific Northwest"? From what I've seen, that's one of the areas where the local climate is expected to change the least as a result of global warming (unless it gets really out of control). Maybe some landslides ... where I live we might be looking at flooding ... but on the whole not the worst place to be.

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Constitutional Sheepdog said:

Wamers need to change their tactic. You start talking pollution, clean air, fertile soil, and clean water, I'm on board with you. It's when you begin saying that man cause's an act that is normal and has been done since the creation of the earth global temperature fluctuations, that's when you lose me and lose the battle.

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Bernard_Fokke said:

Just like the fleas on a dog being convinced that they steer the dog. (Grin)

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