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Democrats’ push-polling strategy revealed by WikiLeaks

MrMike

MrMike

Bless you all
Ahem...

Sound familiar?

October 24, 2016
Democrats’ push-polling strategy revealed by WikiLeaks

By James Lewis
Donald Trump is publicly accusing Hillary of "rigging the system."
Push-polling is one way to do that. It amounts to artificially blowing up the Democratic poll numbers to "push" a psy-ops mission – to encourage one set of voters to think they are winning and to demoralize the opposition voters, who think they are losing. One Alinsky rule is to do what your supporters enjoy:winning feels betterthan losing. Saul Alinsky’s lessons have gone mainstream.

You win a war by putting the enemy in a situation where he will not fight and where you triumph. ... He fought it because he said, "I don't want to give the enemy the impression that I ... So just to throw them off balance, we are going to have a battle. ... Saul Alinsky was a wonderful community action organizer, and he wrote ...

The Hillary Clinton campaign, in concert with allied media, has created a sense of doom for Trump supporters. Here is the five-month average according to theNew York Times.

A 2008 memo revealed by WikiLeaks openly plans for oversampling. The known pattern for news polls is actual oversampling of Democrats. The memo goes to prove that it's intentional. It openly plans for oversampling. The known pattern for news polls is actual oversampling of Democrats.​

Andy Meyer Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008 Subject: Meet and polling design Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom​

The term "oversampling" presumably means oversampling of Democrats vs. Republicans, because that is in fact what we see in many polling articles. The headline says, "Hillary up by 5 points," and the body of the text tells us that Dems were oversampled by some percentage. As you know, the math basis of statistics uses random variables, and whenever possible, statistical design uses equal size sample. The polling company can say it did not lie, because it reported the oversampling. The headline writers do the most important lying, because some big percentage of readers never get past the headline.

Since predictive polling is inherently imprecise, it's a guess.

I googled "Hillary ahead in polls" for 15,200,000 hits.

Blog: Democrats’ push-polling strategy revealed by WikiLeaks
 
Jets

Jets

Conservative Pragmatist
Not surprised by this. Politics is dirty and if winning means diving head first into the mud, it doesn't always matter what party you are from.

imho
 
Arkady

Arkady

President
MrMike said:
Ahem...

Sound familiar?

October 24, 2016
Democrats’ push-polling strategy revealed by WikiLeaks

By James Lewis
Donald Trump is publicly accusing Hillary of "rigging the system."
Push-polling is one way to do that. It amounts to artificially blowing up the Democratic poll numbers to "push" a psy-ops mission – to encourage one set of voters to think they are winning and to demoralize the opposition voters, who think they are losing. One Alinsky rule is to do what your supporters enjoy:winning feels betterthan losing. Saul Alinsky’s lessons have gone mainstream.

You win a war by putting the enemy in a situation where he will not fight and where you triumph. ... He fought it because he said, "I don't want to give the enemy the impression that I ... So just to throw them off balance, we are going to have a battle. ... Saul Alinsky was a wonderful community action organizer, and he wrote ...

The Hillary Clinton campaign, in concert with allied media, has created a sense of doom for Trump supporters. Here is the five-month average according to theNew York Times.

A 2008 memo revealed by WikiLeaks openly plans for oversampling. The known pattern for news polls is actual oversampling of Democrats. The memo goes to prove that it's intentional. It openly plans for oversampling. The known pattern for news polls is actual oversampling of Democrats.​

Andy Meyer Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008 Subject: Meet and polling design Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom​

The term "oversampling" presumably means oversampling of Democrats vs. Republicans, because that is in fact what we see in many polling articles. The headline says, "Hillary up by 5 points," and the body of the text tells us that Dems were oversampled by some percentage. As you know, the math basis of statistics uses random variables, and whenever possible, statistical design uses equal size sample. The polling company can say it did not lie, because it reported the oversampling. The headline writers do the most important lying, because some big percentage of readers never get past the headline.

Since predictive polling is inherently imprecise, it's a guess.

I googled "Hillary ahead in polls" for 15,200,000 hits.

Blog: Democrats’ push-polling strategy revealed by WikiLeaks
Click to expand...
Did you actually read the memo?
 
MrMike

MrMike

Bless you all
Arkady said:
Did you actually read the memo?
Click to expand...
"The term "oversampling" presumably means oversampling of Democrats vs. Republicans, because that is in fact what we see in many polling articles. The headline says, "Hillary up by 5 points," and the body of the text tells us that Dems were oversampled by some percentage. As you know, the math basis of statistics uses random variables, and whenever possible, statistical design uses equal size sample. The polling company can say it did not lie, because it reported the oversampling. The headline writers do the most important lying, because some big percentage of readers never get past the headline."
 
Arkady

Arkady

President
MrMike said:
"The term "oversampling" presumably means oversampling of Democrats vs. Republicans
Click to expand...
I'm not asking whether you read the right-wing propaganda by James Lewis of the American Thinker. I'm asking whether you read the memo. The actual memo spells out what over-sampling they're talking about, specifically. For example, in Arizona, they call for over-sampling Native Americans because historically the voters-to-phone numbers ratio tends to be higher in areas with high Native American population (such that if you didn't oversample them, your results would under-count them relative to likely actual votes).

Keep in mind, this was a roadmap for 2008. So, we can see whether the polls actually diverged significantly from the results, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

As you can see, the polling average and the actual results were only three-tenths of a point different, so it appears the polls did an excellent job.

In 2012, here's what we saw:

http://www2.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

That time the polls and results diverged more -- by 3.2 points. But, significantly, it was in the opposite direction as the right-wingers had imagined, with all their talk of skewed polls. In reality, the polls had UNDERESTIMATED Obama's dominance. Perhaps they should have over-sampled minorities more.
 
as seen on tv

as seen on tv

Senator
this has been known to backfire too. if manipulated polls give one part a false sense of security, then voting participation by their members can be suppressed, leading to "unexpected outcomes"
 
Constitutional Sheepdog

Constitutional Sheepdog

][][][%er!!!!!!!
MrMike said:
Ahem...

Sound familiar?

October 24, 2016
Democrats’ push-polling strategy revealed by WikiLeaks

By James Lewis
Donald Trump is publicly accusing Hillary of "rigging the system."
Push-polling is one way to do that. It amounts to artificially blowing up the Democratic poll numbers to "push" a psy-ops mission – to encourage one set of voters to think they are winning and to demoralize the opposition voters, who think they are losing. One Alinsky rule is to do what your supporters enjoy:winning feels betterthan losing. Saul Alinsky’s lessons have gone mainstream.

You win a war by putting the enemy in a situation where he will not fight and where you triumph. ... He fought it because he said, "I don't want to give the enemy the impression that I ... So just to throw them off balance, we are going to have a battle. ... Saul Alinsky was a wonderful community action organizer, and he wrote ...

The Hillary Clinton campaign, in concert with allied media, has created a sense of doom for Trump supporters. Here is the five-month average according to theNew York Times.

A 2008 memo revealed by WikiLeaks openly plans for oversampling. The known pattern for news polls is actual oversampling of Democrats. The memo goes to prove that it's intentional. It openly plans for oversampling. The known pattern for news polls is actual oversampling of Democrats.​

Andy Meyer Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008 Subject: Meet and polling design Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom​

The term "oversampling" presumably means oversampling of Democrats vs. Republicans, because that is in fact what we see in many polling articles. The headline says, "Hillary up by 5 points," and the body of the text tells us that Dems were oversampled by some percentage. As you know, the math basis of statistics uses random variables, and whenever possible, statistical design uses equal size sample. The polling company can say it did not lie, because it reported the oversampling. The headline writers do the most important lying, because some big percentage of readers never get past the headline.

Since predictive polling is inherently imprecise, it's a guess.

I googled "Hillary ahead in polls" for 15,200,000 hits.

Blog: Democrats’ push-polling strategy revealed by WikiLeaks
Click to expand...
PHYOP ONLY WORKS ONLY WEAK MINDED PEOPLE MOSTLY DEMOCRATS\
 
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