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Assume massive Kenyesian Spending

Yes and that is fundamentally one of the biggest problems with all modeling. If it is accurate, it changes the future so you have to build in a factor in the model that kicks in once it is predicted. Its a vicious cycle, kind of like going back in time to change history...I am still astounded at what Keynes was able to do with so little real data so long ago. I think Bertrand Russel said of him that Keynes was the smartest man he had ever met...The problem with today's economists is that they became highly politicized and the nation forgot that schism. It started with monetarism and supply side economics and then became mainstream as the conservatives took power. All of a sudden, what was up was down and here we have an entire nation trying to treat macro as if it was micro. Here is good blog if you have not read it...

http://macroadvisers.blogspot.com/2011/04/economic-effects-of-ryan-plan-assuming.html
 

degsme

Council Member
Yes and that is fundamentally one of the biggest problems with all modeling. If it is accurate, it changes the future so you have to build in a factor in the model that kicks in once it is predicted. Its a vicious cycle, kind of like going back in time to change history...I am still astounded at what Keynes was able to do with so little real data so long ago.
Well Keynes had more data than folks realize. He had some 40 years of Stimulus spending results to look at in the USA, and the whole of the WWI and Reparations economies to look at. That's quite a bit of data.
 
But only 40 years for a subject that is almost impossible to define in that short a span...Econ was really just entering the modern era at the time. My bet is that sooner or later, Keynes will be eclipsed by someone who looks at the entire world as the subject, maybe a new branch will be created called globalnomics..
 

degsme

Council Member
But only 40 years for a subject that is almost impossible to define in that short a span...Econ was really just entering the modern era at the time. My bet is that sooner or later, Keynes will be eclipsed by someone who looks at the entire world as the subject, maybe a new branch will be created called globalnomics..
Well the brilliance of Keynes is underscored by how even at the global level, his theories still hold up.
 

degsme

Council Member
Nonsense, Degs. NCP applies to the Congress's powers -- it says so within itself.
NCP Speaks of The Powers Vested in The Government.... Am 14 Section 1 Grants The Government no powers. It just prohitibits states from adversely exercising certain such powers. Arguably Section 5 grants The Fed the power to enforce such limits, but such powers - as per the NCP - include blending Am 14 with Commerce Clause if The government so desires.

For many federal regulations, especially those residing in the alphabet soup agencies such as HUD, OSHA, EPA, there is no means of appeal outside the agency, short of going to Congress.
Simply not true. Again, your 7th Amendment rights are still in force. It is just that suing the Government requires deep pockets. And in the vast number of cases, it makes no economic sense precisely because the folks are invariably IN THE WRONG.

As for McDonald and Heller - you've cited ANALYSTS of the rulings that are supporters of gun fetishism.

and yes you ascribe factually unsupportable qualities to guns.

  • you claim that ownership/possession increases your safety - it does not
  • you claim it provides "protection" - they do not (they allow for pre-emptive offense, but that's not "protection")


As for "safer in an assault environment" is a meaningless claim. There is no such thing as an assault environment. Nor are the statistics "wrong". They are quite well documented. There really is very very very little actual cases of "defensive use of gun" by civillians. The vast majority of them are actually crimes themselves - crimes of assault. The best example are the FBI stats comparing "DUG" "prevention" of rapes. That people are smart and run away from a fetishist who is scared and brandishing a gun, does not mean it was a "defensive use of gun".... yet it invariably gets reported as such.

And the injury and domestic violence and domestic injury rates associated with handgun ownership are incontrovertible. Because you cannot pretend that someone who was shot, was not shot.
 

trapdoor

Governor
That doesn't change that The Army was seeking a demonstration of such. And absent the Army Contract, the Wright Bros airplane would have remained a curiousity. Just like absent the US Mail engaging in "airmail" routes commercial aviation would not have taken off.
No -- the Army WAS NOT seeking a demonstration of flight before it set aircraft requirements in 1907. Langley was the head of the Smithsonian, and he talked the Army out of money, and essentially wrote himself a check from the Smithsonian, to fund his own failed research. Absent the Army contract, the Wright's were a financial success in Europe, both in military and sales to "rich playboys" (for lack of a better term). They were already a financial success when the Army came calling. As for the airlines and mail routes -- the mail routes came first. The routes were "auctioned" to the airlines that would provide the lowest bid. When Eddie Rickenbacker made a commercial success of Eastern Airlines, he submitted the lowest bid for the air mail service (his bid was zero dollars -- he made it up in passenger travel). It wasn't air mail that made commercial air travel a success, it was the development of the Douglas DC-3 (which ALSO involved no government funding -- although a version of it was able to meet a government specification for transport aircraft that the Army desired at the time).

Tesla's Patent - as you point out, was not the final implementation. NOR was it "basic research" that drove or created the radio that Marconi made practicable. It was applied research seeking a patent that could then be licensed. Very different.
Oh, please. When Tesla was operating a toy boat via radio control in the 1890s, he was mostly doing it to entertain audiences. There was no commercial application at the time. Essentially all of Tesla's wireless experiments, including his failed Wardencliffe tower, were pure research -- albeit that Tesla himself envisioned commercial applications. When he was wirelessly illuminating light bulbs in Boulder, Colorado, from a distance of six miles, exactly what was the commercial activity?

Inventing the alternator is different than inventing an AC Generator. Furthermore Tesla's long distance transmission is simply incremental engineering.
When no one else can achieve the next increment, that's called inspired inventing -- Tesla changed the world. He did it without government support.
 

trapdoor

Governor
NCP Speaks of The Powers Vested in The Government.... Am 14 Section 1 Grants The Government no powers. It just prohitibits states from adversely exercising certain such powers. Arguably Section 5 grants The Fed the power to enforce such limits, but such powers - as per the NCP - include blending Am 14 with Commerce Clause if The government so desires.
You've just contradicted yourself. If Amendment 14 contains no special powers for the government, then it also does not contain the unlimited spending authority you find there. Amendment 14 would allow the enforcement of civil right slaws, as that enforcement is necessary and proper to the guarantee of equal protection before the law that is contained in the amendment.

Simply not true. Again, your 7th Amendment rights are still in force. It is just that suing the Government requires deep pockets. And in the vast number of cases, it makes no economic sense precisely because the folks are invariably IN THE WRONG
.

So you think that the rich should be able to buy exceptions from the regulations. Interesting.

As for McDonald and Heller - you've cited ANALYSTS of the rulings that are supporters of gun fetishism.
Name one such analyst I've cited. Just provide me a name. I think you'll find I've done no such thing.

and yes you ascribe factually unsupportable qualities to guns.

[*]you claim that ownership/possession increases your safety - it does not
I claim this depends on the circumstances.

[*]you claim it provides "protection" - they do not (they allow for pre-emptive offense, but that's not "protection")
[/list]
They allow more than than pre-emptive offense, although in providing that they also provide protection. If they were ineffective self defense tools, cops wouldn't carry them.

As for "safer in an assault environment" is a meaningless claim. There is no such thing as an assault environment.
Odd -- you've described yourself having been in such an environment. It is an environment in which you are either being assaulted or have the immediate threat thereof.

Nor are the statistics "wrong". They are quite well documented. There really is very very very little actual cases of "defensive use of gun" by civillians. The vast majority of them are actually crimes themselves - crimes of assault.
Simply untrue. There are hundreds of documented defense use of firearms every year. The things you descrive as crimes of assault are not documented -- how would you know if they even happened?

The best example are the FBI stats comparing "DUG" "prevention" of rapes. That people are smart and run away from a fetishist who is scared and brandishing a gun, does not mean it was a "defensive use of gun".... yet it invariably gets reported as such.
And that is no documentation at all of the phenomena -- it's a misapplication of a statistic. It also makes the presumption that most people are unaware of a threat when they are faced with one. That you make this assumption is unsurprising as you have very little faith in Americans as individuals -- it's one reason you don't want them to make their own decisions on a host of things from firearms to tobacco to trans fats (but legalized drugs are OK).

[QUOTE}And the injury and domestic violence and domestic injury rates associated with handgun ownership are incontrovertible. Because you cannot pretend that someone who was shot, was not shot.

No -- you cannot find a valid link between domestic violence and handgun ownership. You can document a higher injury rate among gun owners. Interestingly, you find a lower rate of vehicular injuries among people who don't own cars, too. To the extent this latter statistic is true, it is simply among the risks we assume as part of living in a free society. Want a more controlled society where risks are lower? I hear Singapore is nice - but you don't have a lot freedom.
 

degsme

Council Member
You've just contradicted yourself. If Amendment 14 contains no special powers for the government, then it also does not contain the unlimited spending authority you find there.
Am 14 empowers The Federal Government to homogenize the "Priviledges and immunities" across citizens. It also clarifies that what Congress defines as Debt - by Constitutional law... is Debt and Congress can then authorize spending on it. That's clarification of plenary spending authority. No it is not UNLIMITED nor have I ever claimed it is. But it is plenary.

Now as for "buying exceptions" to the goverment - nope. In fact its the opposite. Regulatory Due Process - precisely because it costs LESS than a full lawsuit - expands the appeals process more broadly. And if you feel you have a strong enough and valuable enough case, you can go beyond that process IF YOU SO CHOOSE TO. No difference.

Name one such analyst I've cited. Just provide me a name. I think you'll find I've done no such thing.


Now as to guns - no they require pre-emptive offence, because shooting after you have beein harmed doesn't prevent the harm. Its not like a ballistic kevlar vest that deflects an absorbs harmful energy delivery. It requires usage to pro-actively harm someone else (and even simple assault is a form of harm otherwise it would not be a crime AND a civil offense). Now in certain circumstances there is a risk/harm tradeoff. But for the average gun owner that circumstance is essentially non-existant. And when compared to the circumstances where it INCREASES the likelihood of harm to the owner, there is a NET NEGATIVE risk outcome.

BTW, now that you have clarified what an "assualt environment" is- yes having a gun in EACH of those circumstances would have either done nothing to my risk OR INCREASED IT. And that is true in most cases. Just as the "crimes of assault" are not documented as such - neither are "defensive use of guns". And given the research on how the willingness to use violence increases ones propensity to it - as well as all the anecdotal evidence (not the least of which our own Lapcat here) and the FBI data on "rape defense"... the preponderance of statistical evidence is that these are primarily assaults. That's not enough to invoke Alito's Dangerous and Unusual exception to McDonald... but better research can do this

Now there are "hundreds" of documented defensive uses of firearms annually. There are also "hundreds of thousands" of firearms injuries annually http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5002a1.htm That's a risk/reward ratio well in favor of the "dangerous" side.

[QUOTE}And the injury and domestic violence and domestic injury rates associated with handgun ownership are incontrovertible. Because you cannot pretend that someone who was shot, was not shot.

No -- you cannot find a valid link between domestic violence and handgun ownership. You can document a higher injury rate among gun owners.[/quote]
Yes you can. the data on this is clear. and as you do have a higher injury rate. and that means that the harm exceeds the benefit. And that meets the McDonald and Heller exceptions. Yes people who own cars are also more likely to be injured by them. Hence ownership, usage and even production of them is LICENSED AND REGULATED AND RESTRICTED

Now again the issue here is that the "dangerous and unusual" exception to the 2nd Amendment is what YOUR CONSERVATIVES put in place in Heller and McDonald. BTW, Singapore, France, Germany, UK are all nice. And folks like me don't lose anything by moving there. Your Singapore comment is clearly an attempt to parallel the taxation and regulatory comment I make about Somalia. But unlike Somalia - these other places are actually very nice and attractive.
 

trapdoor

Governor
Am 14 empowers The Federal Government to homogenize the "Priviledges and immunities" across citizens.
I agree. Necessary and proper to the homogenization process is the ability to enforce anti-racist, anti-sexist laws. No need to drag in the commerce clause, and distort it, to provide a means for enforcing such laws.

It also clarifies that what Congress defines as Debt - by Constitutional law... is Debt and Congress can then authorize spending on it. That's clarification of plenary spending authority. No it is not UNLIMITED nor have I ever claimed it is. But it is plenary.
Ah-- but now you've provided a caveat. With the caveat I accept your reasoning. You write, "...what Congress defines as Debt -- by Constititutional law -- is debt..." but if something Congress defines as debt comes as the result of an UNCONSTITUTIONAL law, then there is no valid expenditure. What it does not say is that Congress has an unlimited authority to define as "debt" anything it wants to spend taxpayer dollars to buy. There is still a separation between the ability to allocate funds and the ability to spend them. Congress may appropriate for almost anything, but it is constrained to pass Constitutional laws when it comes to expenditure.


Now as for "buying exceptions" to the goverment - nope. In fact its the opposite. Regulatory
Due Process - precisely because it costs LESS than a full lawsuit - expands the appeals process more broadly. And if you feel you have a strong enough and valuable enough case, you can go beyond that process IF YOU SO CHOOSE TO. No difference.
No -- it costs more than a typical lawsuit to drag a government agency into a real federal court where you have access to your full set of constitutional rights. Poorer people, obviously, can't afford to do this -- so only rich people have access to their rights. This effectively redefines rights as privileges and creates a proteced class, the wealthy, who have better treatment before the law. Now you're starting to see one of the many problems with regulation via bureaucracy -- not only is it arbitrary, it is unfairly arbitrary. For an example, witness how BP could simply put the regulators in its pocket before the Gulf oil spill last year.



Now as to guns - no they require pre-emptive offence, because shooting after you have beein harmed doesn't prevent the harm.
Shooting after a threat has been identified, but before one has received actual harm, is not "pre-emptive offense." It is self defense. Ditto for merely showing the weapon to the threatening agent so that it decides to pack up its threat and go away.

And when compared to the circumstances where it INCREASES the likelihood of harm to the owner, there is a NET NEGATIVE risk outcome.
What utter dreck, Degs. An armed person will win in over the unarmed in a fight, plain and simple. Whether he was right or wrong to do so, Zimmerman proved this. In that street fight, with its outcome, would you rather have been the person with the gun or without it? (He also blows a major hole in your "21-foot" rule, but we can debate that in some other thread).

Just as the "crimes of assault" are not documented as such - neither are "defensive use of guns".
Some defensive uses of guns are not documented -- many are. I can give you lists of at least one hundred such incidents, documented in reputable news sources and verified by police, that happen each year.

And given the research on how the willingness to use violence increases ones propensity to it - as well as all the anecdotal evidence (not the least of which our own Lapcat here) and the FBI data on "rape defense"... the preponderance of statistical evidence is that these are primarily assaults.
Simply untrue.

That's not enough to invoke Alito's Dangerous and Unusual exception to McDonald... but better research can do this
No, it cannot. No matter how much you try to warp the decision in this way, that phrase can never be used to ban guns in common use -- that's what the rulings themselves say. Not even a good effort on your part.

Now there are "hundreds" of documented defensive uses of firearms annually. There are also "hundreds of thousands" of firearms injuries annually http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5002a1.htm That's a risk/reward ratio well in favor of the "dangerous" side.
Firearms injuries? Really? You're going to have to do better than that, because compared to other consumer products, firearms have an essentially spotless safety record.

And the injury and domestic violence and domestic injury rates associated with handgun ownership are incontrovertible. Because you cannot pretend that someone who was shot, was not shot.
But that doesn't lead to your seeming conclusion. Domestic violence rates, themselves, don't go up as a result of gun ownership. Shootings during domestic violence rates may -- but that isn't the same thing. The mere possession of a gun does not lead to one spouse abusing another.

Yes you can. the data on this is clear. and as you do have a higher injury rate. and that means that the harm exceeds the benefit. And that meets the McDonald and Heller exceptions.
Not in real life, only in Degsland. And you can document that people who don't own cars have fewer car wrecks than people who do, but that doesn't mean owning cars is illegitimate. Whether you like it or not, our society has chosen, and put into its laws, to accept a higher level of risk that is concomitant with a higher level of freedom. Further, your reasoning was just applied in the case in Maryland -- and the federal court struck down the portion of Maryland's law requiring those desiring a concealed carry permit to show a reason for doing so.

Yes people who own cars are also more likely to be injured by them. Hence ownership, usage and even production of them is LICENSED AND REGULATED AND RESTRICTED
Ownership of cars is not, however, a right. Ownership of guns is.

\BTW, Singapore, France, Germany, UK are all nice.
Singapore is nice, but don't spit on the sidewalk or you'll be caned. Draconian laws can make anyplace "nice." If I were to live overseas, I'd pic Switzerland, where I can buy a machine-gun over the counter (and where there is almost no violent crime).
 

trapdoor

Governor
I'd like to suggest we separate the gun control debate into a different thread, and retain the regulatory/keynesian discussion here.
 
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