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Black crime rates.

Discussion in 'Latest Political News and Current Events' started by Arkady, Dec 1, 2014.

  1. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    Crime rates for blacks are much higher than whites in this country. Why?

    One theory is just that they're more likely to be blamed for crimes, and more likely to be found guilty, due to the racism of the system. Although I wouldn't be surprised if those things factored in to some extent, the gulf in the stats is too much for me to think that they explain the majority of the gulf. I think that even if we had a magical ability to know with perfect reliability who committed which crime, we'd find much higher rates among blacks.

    Obviously, a big part is just socioeconomic. Pretty much everywhere and always, there's more crime --at least violent crime-- among the lower economic castes. And since blacks are disproportionately in our lower economic castes, they're going to commit a large portion of crimes. But there's more going on than just that. Every society has relatively disadvantaged people, and not every society produces the same kind of criminality we have in the US. Why is it OUR underclass, rather than that of Germany, Japan, France, the UK, or Canada, that is driving up serious violent crime rates to the highest levels, by far, of any major wealthy nation?

    I examined a couple theories in a post a couple days ago:

    (1) the theory that we neglect our underclass more than most countries do, because of the racial differences between it and our ruling class (resulting in less sympathy), and that this makes the underclass more permanent and despairing, fueling violence.

    (2) the theory that we counter-productively baby our underclass more than most countries do, because of the racial differences between it and our ruling class (resulting in "white guilt" and overcompensation), and that this is what makes the underclass more permanent and despairing, fueling violence. ​

    Of those two, the first theory is more consistent with the stats (which show the US does, in fact, have a stingier approach to its underclass than most developed countries, and that such stinginess is correlated with higher murder rates). But those are obviously not the only theories available. I'm curious what other ideas people may have. The US is an outlier, and identifying, accurately, why that is, has to be the first step to putting in place policies that will start to remedy it.
     
  2. resident_evil

    resident_evil Senator

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    The nature of violence is an expression of the culture, character, and to some degree or other the genetics of the person(s) being violent. Culture and character can be molded and changed (often by the right religion). But it is not a matter of throwing money at the problem. So close OUR check book Arkady and yet feel free to open yours..
     
  3. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    Did you have any answer to the question? What do YOU think is driving the phenomenon?
     
  4. resident_evil

    resident_evil Senator

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    Read Jason Riley's book. Start there.
     
  5. resident_evil

    resident_evil Senator

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    Here is an example of what I mean about content of character lacking:

    http://www.politicaljack.com/threads/apologies-all-around.76961/

    What I meant to say earlier is ask the black scholarly critics of black culture and character to opine on your question.
     
  6. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    Why because he tells you what you want to hear ?
     
  7. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    Or it could be that other much more easily observed circumstances. Marginal ownership of the communities they live in. The fact that interaction with the govt largely in three types. School systems that are comparably under funded. A social welfare system that seems to be in place in exchange for a real effort in providing an equal opportunity. Police forces that or more aggressive and is therefore seen and behaves as a occupational force rather than an arm of public safety. Which creates and adversarial relationship.

    Also if you really look at them these communities are economic deserts. One of the leading causes of their continuation as such is the idea that making it means leaving those communities behind. So they continuously face the brain and talent drainage need to build maintain connections to the larger economy and maintenance of connections once made.

    I've posted so many times on the reasons for crime other than those above in sometimes seems like I'm a broke record in that regard.
     
  8. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    I've read some interviews of his and read parts of the book accessible online. I didn't see where he'd answered my question. If he has, could you paraphrase here?
     
  9. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    If we get a black scholarly critic of black culture in this forum, I'd love to hear that person's thoughts on this. For now, I'm looking for the thoughts of those who are in this forum.

    Your focus on character doesn't address the question, it just rephrases it. If the US has an unusually violent underclass because Americans have unusually poor character, then the question just becomes why our character is so uniquely horrible, among all the leading wealthy nations? Every nation has an underclass, but no other major wealthy nation has anything close to our murder rate. What is it that you think is driving that "low character," if character is the cause?
     
  10. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    That's certainly a good way to sell books: come up with a message that gives the majority a feeling that the minority is responsible for its own suffering, and that the best thing the majority can do is to stop making any sacrifices for the minority. It's similar to one of those diet gurus who insists he's got a way you can lose all sorts of weight without the hard work of exercise or the self discipline of eating less. Tell people what they want to hear and they'll beat a path to your door.
     
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  11. UPNYA2

    UPNYA2 Mayor

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    "Marginal ownership of the communities they live in."
    Why is that? Are some "not allowed" to own? How should ownership be "corrected"? Ease loaning requirements? Nooooo.........been tried. Ok, so what, just take from some and give it to others, to make things more, "fair"?

    "School systems that are comparably under funded."
    I see. Like in DC, right? But never mind that, where does funding from most school systems originate? So what, again we need to take more from some and give it to others, to make things more, "fair"?

    "A social welfare system that seems to be in place in exchange for a real effort in providing an equal opportunity."
    OR might it be a social welfare system that seems to be in place in exchange for a real effort in providing for oneself? Might it be an equal outcome is what is desired, not an equal opportunity?

    "Police forces that or more aggressive and is therefore seen and behaves as a occupational force rather than an arm of public safety. Which creates and adversarial relationship. "
    What IF police forces have to be more aggressive, and is therefore seen and as an "occupational force" rather than an arm of public safety because of a much more pronounced disrespect of authority, an indoctrinated hatred of others not like themselves and a perverted feeling of entitlement to any and everything any other may have.........

    That too could create an adversarial relationship which you are speaking of, correct?


    "Also if you really look at them these communities are economic deserts."
    So what would change that? Forcing others with more to have to go there to live or work? Why do they not now?

    "One of the leading causes of their continuation as such is the idea that making it means leaving those communities behind."
    Indeed. And you do you think THAT might be? Is the solution to force those who can move to stay there? Take more from them so they can't leave and give it to others, to make things more "fair"? What?

    "So they continuously face the brain and talent drainage need to build maintain connections to the larger economy and maintenance of connections once made. "
    WHY is that?

    Perhaps the "brains" being "drained" from these areas do so BECAUSE it is the "brainy" thing to do...............


    Face it, sport, there are no "bad neighborhoods", no, "depressed areas" in a town, there are bad PEOPLE in various neighborhoods and various areas of towns. Neighborhoods and areas of towns are buildings and structures, they bother no one.

    PEOPLE do.

    People like the gated community liberals on here do not live their lives in fear of outdated homes or run down buildings, skippy. They do not refuse to venture through parts of their own towns out of a fear of some billboard falling on them. They fear the PEOPLE in those areas.

    Believe it. Test me on it.

    In YOUR town look at what most would deem to be the "bad section", then look at what most would consider to be the "upper scale" area. Now just imagine that one day, somehow, magically the li by dream comes true and, POOF!, everyone from those two areas of town are inverted.

    How long do you think it will be before someone in the "bad side" of town tries to pick up, paint, maybe grow a flower or two...........

    How long do you think it will be before someone in the "upper scale" area of town steals from another, kills someone, sells drugs or pimps out someone else, "tags" a wall or the side of a building etc.?

    How long will it be before you would try to discourage your teenage daughter from visiting the old "upper side" area after dark?



    Sometimes, SOMETIMES, it is actually the PEOPLE who are ultimately for their roles in life when it comes to good and bad. NOT when it comes to good or bad mind you, but still, people CAN be poor and NOT bad.

    But THEY have to CHOOSE to do so.
     
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  12. SW48

    SW48 Administrator Staff Member Supporting Member

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    Economics, education, and family dynamics is driving the phenomenon. Race has zero to do with it. Any race in the same economic and family dynamic would have the same ratio.
     
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  13. UPNYA2

    UPNYA2 Mayor

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    Either of you guys read much?

    WHY?

    To have others tel YOU what to think?

    To have someone else validate YOUR views and opinions reenforced?

    I suspect not. So why question another, why insinuate such a thing when another mentions reading a book?

    But, hey, what if one could come up with a message that gives the majority of the the minority the feeling that it is others, (the majority), who is responsible for all of their suffering, and that the best thing the minority can do is to demand more and more sacrifices from the majority because they are entitled, so things will be "fair"?

    That would be a really good selling point too, right? Is THAT something your readings tell you to think by any chance?
     
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  14. marvin martian

    marvin martian Senator

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    We have more than one, but since you disagree with them, you've likely ignored their contributions.
     
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  15. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    That's an interesting theory, and potentially a useful one, since it should be possible to test it. For example, in neighborhoods where the underclass owns a higher percentage of real estate and business, are violent crime rates lower? In other wealthy nations, where things like murder are far less common, do you find that the underclass tends to have more of an ownership stake in the society? It seems like a promising avenue to explore, though I don't know what data sources to use to get us started.

    The only simple and widely available stat I can think of that is at all along the lines of that would be to use the Gini index for income. That's not as good as a stat that actually measures ownership, instead of income, but it's the best I've got. What the data indicates is very strong for your theory.

    Countries with very high Gini indexes include South Africa, Colombia, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, and Brazil, which are all famous for extremely serious violence problems. If you look at just the OECD by Gini coefficient, after taxes and transfers, the countries with the worst income inequality, with worst first, are (murder rates in parentheses):

    1. Mexico (21.5)
    2. Turkey (2.6)
    3. Chile (3.1)
    4. United States (4.7)
    5. Israel (1.8)

    By comparison, the median for the OECD nations is a murder rate of 1.0. So, every single one of the high-inequality nations has much-worse-than-median problems with murder.

    Running a coefficient of correlation on the data, across the 34 OECD nations, shows 0.633, which is quite strong positive correlation: the greater the inequality, the more murder. That's definitely consistent with the idea that our out-sized criminal dysfunction in this country has a lot to do with our underclass having less "skin in the game," due to the concentration of wealth here.
     
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  16. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    I'm quite aware of the phenomenon in my own case, too. I'm a rich white guy, so of course I'm going to be drawn to arguments that say that we can solve our social problems by actually taking LESS out of rich white guys' paychecks, and expecting more out of minorities. But I've learned to be particularly skeptical about theories that are seductive in that way. If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. It's exactly the theories that would be most convenient to me, personally, that are most likely to dupe me with shoddy reasoning and evidence, so they're the ones I need to guard against. The theories that would be least convenient to me, by comparison, have to deal with well-primed skepticism on my part without the same kind of conscious focus, because I have an emotional drive to look for holes in the theory.

    No. It would be the opposite of a "really good selling point." At best, it would be a risky niche marketing strategy, since a minority group is, by definition, a much smaller potential audience. And a poor minority group is a particularly unpromising niche to which to pitch your product, since they have less disposable income. So, if you ever think about writing one of these yourself, then strictly from the economic perspective, I strongly recommend you figure out what upper- and middle-class white people want to believe is true, and tell them that.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2014
  17. UPNYA2

    UPNYA2 Mayor

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    I was merely pondering the amount of money that the various farakahan, jesse jackson, reren' wright, sharpton types have milked out of such a minority group of people in the US.

    One would obviously HAVE to be quite the snake oil salesman granted, but make no mistake about it, there is a lot of damned money to be had from selling that, "the majority is responsible for all you feel entitled to but do not have" bull sh it to a minority of people.
     
  18. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    Economics, education, and family dynamics..... you're listing vague topics, not providing a theory. In what way are US economics diving the phenomenon? What about US economics, as opposed to the economics of any other major wealthy nation, favors such violence problems? How about education? What is it that we're doing differently from our international peers on the education front, bringing about these worse results? And how about families dynamics? Is there something, in particular, that creates such dysfunctional family dynamics in the US, even as every other wealthy nation seems to do OK?

    I think to move this forward in a productive way, we need to get specific. For example, one can point to some policies in most wealthy nations, designed to support the family, which don't exist here? In the US, talk about "family values" is usually just code for expressing discomfort with certain politically disfavored forms of sex. But in much of the world, valuing the family means things like mandating lengthy paid maternity and paternity leave, minimum paid vacation allowances, more efforts to try to control how many hours per week people work, subsidized childcare, and more social programs designed to make it feasible to have a full-time homemaker.

    Take Europe's biggest economy, Germany, as an example. The average German worker works 1388 hours per year. The average US worker works 1788 hours per year. If you think of the 400-hour difference as being the equivalent of getting 10 EXTRA WEEKS OF VACATION PER YEAR (based on a 40-hour workweek), it gives you a sense of just how much more time Germans will have for spending quality time with their kids, parenting them up to be more law-abiding than here in the US. Add to that the fact that in the US, we also have a slightly higher employment-population ratio, meaning more retirees and stay-at-home spouses in Germany to help with building strong, healthy families for raising kids. This extra free time would also mean more availability for leading scout troops and bake sales and other efforts that support childrearing on a more community-wide basis.

    I'm not sure if that's the kind of "family dynamic" that is causing our problems in the US, but it's at least something to look into.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 1, 2014
  19. Arkady

    Arkady President

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    Well, I hope they step up and post something responsive to this, because I'm curious.
     
  20. marvin martian

    marvin martian Senator

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    No you aren't. You've made up your mind already.
     

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