Florence the freight train hurricane

[Days]

Remember Katrina? She was only a category 4 storm when she struck terra firma.
Remember Maria? That's what a category 5 storm does, Puerto Rico still hasn't recovered.
Remember Harvey? water kills more than wind, and Florence could hang around the coastline like Harvey did... only this monster is a mega-pump, if the eye were to stay over water, which is possible, they don't think it will happen but the thing with hurricanes is, anything can happen.

Florence is moving like a freight train straight at the Carolinas. She intensified so fast, skipped from category 2 to category 4. No one expected that, cuz the waters in the Atlantic are not as hot as the Caribbean or the Gulf, but this is the hottest time of year and when conditions are just right, and that eye is formed like it is... the thing with hurricanes is, anything can happen.

Now, they are saying she could make landfall as a category 5 hurricane. Imagine the storm surge! In front of the eye, you are talking 40-50 feet of water, and a good 30 feet of water up and down the coast in front of the inner bands. It makes a big difference how it meets the coastline, the projected path hitting south of Hatteras is the worst case scenario for a storm surge, the water has no where to escape.

Then there's the high and low troughs that tend to steer a hurricane, and those are setting up to stall the beast right about landfall; if you remember, Harvey went inland and then reversed and went right back out into the Gulf, then hung around just off the coast for two days with the eye over the water. Florence is a much bigger and stronger hurricane than Harvey was, if the eye stalls off the coast over the water... that could teach us just how cruel the weather gods can be.

 

[Jen]

I have always loved a good storm. The power of storms is amazing. But this one has me queasy, not excited. I know quite a few people in that area. Some are cyber - but I still know them. Most of them are leaving the area. I fear for the ones who are staying.

Plus, my daughter is in Baltimore, so one wobble and she could be hit. She lives in a safe place so that's good. Do you have anything you can add to this, @connieb, for those close but not right in the cone of the storm?

 

[Days]

I have always loved a good storm. The power of storms is amazing. But this one has me queasy, not excited. I know quite a few people in that area. Some are cyber - but I still know them. Most of them are leaving the area. I fear for the ones who are staying.

Plus, my daughter is in Baltimore, so one wobble and she could be hit. She lives in a safe place so that's good. Do you have anything you can add to this, @connieb, for those close but not right in the cone of the storm?

People who ride out a hurricane are counting on the hurricane moving through. This one is supposed to hang around. I'm not sure we've ever experienced what happens when a category 5 hurricane hangs around the coastline. Suffice to say, conditions along the coast are going to change dramatically. Anyone who lives along the coast and thinks they can ride this storm out has a death wish.

 

[Jen]

People who ride out a hurricane are counting on the hurricane moving through. This one is supposed to hang around. I'm not sure we've ever experienced what happens when a category 5 hurricane hangs around the coastline. Suffice to say, conditions along the coast are going to change dramatically. Anyone who lives along the coast and thinks they can ride this storm out has a death wish.

Surely it won't remain a cat 5 that whole time. But I do understand that the rain dropped if it hangs around will be devastating. Harvey damage was terrible.

 

[Days]

Surely it won't remain a cat 5 that whole time. But I do understand that the rain dropped if it hangs around will be devastating. Harvey damage was terrible.

Harvey remained a hurricane for the whole time it was over water. If the feed winds to the eye are drawing from the ocean behind the hurricane... which they will be, it is very possible Florence could linger as a major hurricane... the key is whether the eye is out over the water, if the eye is over land, the storm will break up. This is such a powerful storm, even if the eye stays on land and it breaks up, if the hurricane remains stationary, you are still talking a ton of rainfall. If the storm decides to linger just off the coast, like Harvey did, with the eye over the water; that would be something we've never seen the likes of. Harvey was category one when it did that and the Gulf runs a shallow ledge for miles out from Houston, if a category 4 hurricane were to stall just off the Carolina coast in the deep Atlantic waters; we have no precedent for an event like that. If it lingered for 2-3 days, there would be ten feet of water inundating the coastland 20-30 miles inland, it would be certain death for anyone living there... and that's a very real possibility with this hurricane.

 

[Jen]

Harvey remained a hurricane for the whole time it was over water. If the feed winds to the eye are drawing from the ocean behind the hurricane... which they will be, it is very possible Florence could linger as a major hurricane... the key is whether the eye is out over the water, if the eye is over land, the storm will break up. This is such a powerful storm, even if the eye stays on land and it breaks up, if the hurricane remains stationary, you are still talking a ton of rainfall. If the storm decides to linger just off the coast, like Harvey did, with the eye over the water; that would be something we've never seen the likes of. Harvey was category one when it did that and the Gulf runs a shallow ledge for miles out from Houston, if a category 4 hurricane were to stall just off the Carolina coast in the deep Atlantic waters; we have no precedent for an event like that. If it lingered for 2-3 days, there would be ten feet of water inundating the coastland 20-30 miles inland, it would be certain death for anyone living there... and that's a very real possibility with this hurricane.

I hope it is far less bad than it could be then.
Pretty frightening for those who are there with no place to go.

 

[Days]

I hope it is far less bad than it could be then.
Pretty frightening for those who are there with no place to go.

I don't know - nobody knows - what this hurricane might do. But I just read that the water is 85 degrees; that's really hot for the Atlantic, no wonder they expect it to continue to strengthen. Prediction is for the hurricane to hit as a border line cat4 / cat5 hurricane, which, if it drives all the way into the beach, should produce a monster storm surge. The storm surge is just a bunch of giant waves, it isn't a solid wall of water like a tsunami, but they are predicting the storm surge could push up to 9 feet of water in front of the eye... so if you live along the coast where the eye is expected to hit; that's a mandatory evacuation, no way anyone survives 9 feet of water.

 

[Jen]

I don't know - nobody knows - what this hurricane might do. But I just read that the water is 85 degrees; that's really hot for the Atlantic, no wonder they expect it to continue to strengthen. Prediction is for the hurricane to hit as a border line cat4 / cat5 hurricane, which, if it drives all the way into the beach, should produce a monster storm surge. The storm surge is just a bunch of giant waves, it isn't a solid wall of water like a tsunami, but they are predicting the storm surge could push up to 9 feet of water in front of the eye... so if you live along the coast where the eye is expected to hit; that's a mandatory evacuation, no way anyone survives 9 feet of water.

Then there is livestock that may be there. Not to mention structures. I guess we've seen it all before but it isn't pretty at all.

 

[Constitutional Sheepdog]

I'm right in the path, though it will be a tropical storm I've made it through several direct hurricane hits.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/10/us/hurricane-florence-tracking-map.html

 

[Days]

Then there is livestock that may be there. Not to mention structures. I guess we've seen it all before but it isn't pretty at all.

horses can swim... but they need to have a place they can swim to. There are islands out there, and they are pretty much flat as a pancake. You know, right now, they are busy trying to get humans out of there, so it is sad for the horses, dogs, cats, pigs, anything left in the hurricane's path.

All the models expect the hurricane to hang around, but for how long? The European model that correctly predicted five feet of rainfall from Harvey is predicting the same for this hurricane; only this time, that means five feet of rain on top of 3 to 9 feet of storm surge. There is no precedent for an event like that.

No one along the coast should disobey that mandatory evacuation, nobody can rescue you while a major hurricane is blowing outside. Any coastline in front of and north of the eye should see a minimum of ten feet of water ... all the way up to cape Hatteras.

 

[Days]

I'm right in the path, though it will be a tropical storm I've made it through several direct hurricane hits.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/10/us/hurricane-florence-tracking-map.html

that model is calling for the hurricane to continue moving inland; that would be good if it does so, but if the hurricane hangs around the coastline instead, the rainfall gets measured in feet, not inches.

 

[Constitutional Sheepdog]

that model is calling for the hurricane to continue moving inland; that would be good if it does so, but if the hurricane hangs around the coastline instead, the rainfall gets measured in feet, not inches.

Hopefully it will be a fast mover Hugo was still a hurricane when it hit where I was near the NC VA stateline

 

[Days]

Hopefully it will be a fast mover Hugo was still a hurricane when it hit where I was near the NC VA stateline

It would be a lot better if it does that. There would be more wind damage, but probably a whole lot less deaths. It's the water that kills.

 

[John Doe]

I got hit by Irma in SW Fl last year, my house started to flood and we hand winds over 100. Sound like a train running just outside my shuttered windows. I feel for the effected.

 

[Days]

I got hit by Irma in SW Fl last year, my house started to flood and we hand winds over 100. Sound like a train running just outside my shuttered windows. I feel for the effected.

This hurricane is going to be like nothing the Carolinas have ever experienced. The American forecast models have now completely reversed themselves, the hurricane is slowing down (It was moving so fast, it covered a 1000 miles a day) and now they expect it to stall right at the coast, literally come to a stop, and turn - get this - SOUTH. Which means it will have more water in front of it because the coast bends west as you head south into South Carolina. If the eye stays out over the water, the rain will still fall on all of North Carolina. Usually, if you are south of a hurricane, you get blue skies and sunshine, but this hurricane is going to do a dance along the coast and head south... this is bizarre. If the eye stays out over the water, it will push a storm surge in front of it, and drop a ton of rain behind it.

 

[Jen]

This hurricane is going to be like nothing the Carolinas have ever experienced. The American forecast models have now completely reversed themselves, the hurricane is slowing down (It was moving so fast, it covered a 1000 miles a day) and now they expect it to stall right at the coast, literally come to a stop, and turn - get this - SOUTH. Which means it will have more water in front of it because the coast bends west as you head south into South Carolina. If the eye stays out over the water, the rain will still fall on all of North Carolina. Usually, if you are south of a hurricane, you get blue skies and sunshine, but this hurricane is going to do a dance along the coast and head south... this is bizarre. If the eye stays out over the water, it will push a storm surge in front of it, and drop a ton of rain behind it.

Pat Robertson gathered people together and prayed that the storm will turn and not hit land. Do you think that will help?

 

[Days]

Pat Robertson gathered people together and prayed that the storm will turn and not hit land. Do you think that will help?

It was forecast to go north like every other hurricane, but now it is going to be a real nightmare, if it heads south it should stay in the water...
Yeah, this is probably God's answer to that prayer... thaaaaaanks Pat!

 

[Days]

It was forecast to go north like every other hurricane, but now it is going to be a real nightmare, if it heads south it should stay in the water...
Yeah, this is probably God's answer to that prayer... thaaaaaanks Pat!

You understand that this is not better? Robertson should get more informed about hurricanes before leading prayer groups!

We wanted the hurricane eye to go over land.... if it turns south and stays out over water - like the goofs prayed it would do? - that's the ultimate nightmare.

When you have a category 4 hurricane, you have a huge storm surge. let me explain what that is. The more powerful the eye, the deeper it pushes down into the water, creating a huge swell, right now the eye of this storm is creating a 100 foot swell or larger. As the eye heads into land, the water gets shallow and the swell decreases in size, but if a category 4 hurricane makes landfall, it pushes a huge swell in front of it; when that swell gets pushed up onto land, we call it a storm surge.

If this hurricane stays out over the water and heads south - like they are projecting it will do - it is going to push a storm surge all the way down the coast in front of it.

Try to understand what that does. Normally, South Carolina would escape the fury of this storm because it headed north into North Carolina and then Virginia, and they escape the wrath of Florence. If the hurricane stalls, and then turns south, OH MY GOD, South Carolina gets a non-stop storm surge. The storm surge is pushing water onto the land for a thousand miles of coastland, it might be producing 30 foot waves in front of the eye, and then those wave sizes get smaller and smaller the further away from the eye. But if the hurricane moves along the coastline, it is going to be pushing a storm surge in front of it. So, South Carolina will begin with a small storm surge, but it won't stop, it will keep happening and as the hurricane moves south the storm surge will get bigger and bigger and bigger ..... a storm surge is over as soon as the hurricane goes over land, it usually hits once per hurricane. Harvey had no storm surge to speak of for Houston because it was category one and it was well out into the Gulf.

These people have no idea what is coming at them, even NOAH is saying they have never seen anything like this...

 

[Days]

You understand that this is not better? Robertson should get more informed about hurricanes before leading prayer groups!

We wanted the hurricane eye to go over land.... if it turns south and stays out over water - like the goofs prayed it would do? - that's the ultimate nightmare.

When you have a category 4 hurricane, you have a huge storm surge. let me explain what that is. The more powerful the eye, the deeper it pushes down into the water, creating a huge swell, right now the eye of this storm is creating a 100 foot swell or larger. As the eye heads into land, the water gets shallow and the swell decreases in size, but if a category 4 hurricane makes landfall, it pushes a huge swell in front of it; when that swell gets pushed up onto land, we call it a storm surge.

If this hurricane stays out over the water and heads south - like they are projecting it will do - it is going to push a storm surge all the way down the coast in front of it.

Try to understand what that does. Normally, South Carolina would escape the fury of this storm because it headed north into North Carolina and then Virginia, and they escape the wrath of Florence. If the hurricane stalls, and then turns south, OH MY GOD, South Carolina gets a non-stop storm surge. The storm surge is pushing water onto the land for a thousand miles of coastland, it might be producing 30 foot waves in front of the eye, and then those wave sizes get smaller and smaller the further away from the eye. But if the hurricane moves along the coastline, it is going to be pushing a storm surge in front of it. So, South Carolina will begin with a small storm surge, but it won't stop, it will keep happening and as the hurricane moves south the storm surge will get bigger and bigger and bigger ..... a storm surge is over as soon as the hurricane goes over land, it usually hits once per hurricane. Harvey had no storm surge to speak of for Houston because it was category one and it was well out into the Gulf.

These people have no idea what is coming at them, even NOAH is saying they have never seen anything like this...

Category 4 hurricanes move whole seas of water... Think back about Irma and Maria... remember the way they created artificial tides?

If Florence were to head south and run along the coastline, she will push unimaginable amounts of water onto the coastland in front of her, and when does that end? As long as the eye stays out over the water... it doesn't end... this could drown out the entire southern half of our eastern coast.

Uhm, Pat, please stop praying for those people, okay?

 

[Days]

Okay, get the picture. The water is so hot, it is 85 degrees off the coast of North Carolina. As you head south, the water gets hotter. When hurricanes turn south, they strengthen.

Look at all that water that opens up for Florence as she heads south...