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Gone in a moment

There's a great big ol' asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. There's no telling when one of those rocks might fly by us. I can't see any sense in using statistics on such an event; it will happen some day, just one of those strange flukes where paths collide... when it does happen, there's nothing left to ponder or worry about; half the planet will die in their sleep; the other half will probably never see it coming.
<shrug> nothing to do about it :)
 

fairsheet

Senator
<shrug> nothing to do about it :)
Au contraire. It's reasonable to assume that future advances in science will enable humans to redirect an asteroid. If we can do so at sufficient distance, the difference between an asteroid hitting or missing the Earth, can be as little as 1 millimeter.
 
Au contraire. It's reasonable to assume that future advances in science will enable humans to redirect an asteroid. If we can do so at sufficient distance, the difference between an asteroid hitting or missing the Earth, can be as little as 1 millimeter.
I do very much doubt that fair, where would the profit be? Nothing is done now a days with out profit in mind - but for now it isn't worth worrying about anyway - I certainly ain't gonna.
 

fairsheet

Senator
I do very much doubt that fair, where would the profit be? Nothing is done now a days with out profit in mind - but for now it isn't worth worrying about anyway - I certainly ain't gonna.
One way or another, virtually everything we do as humans is done with some sort of profit in mind. 100 years ago, it was reasonable to ask what profit there might be in feeding the impoverished world?
 

Days

Commentator
Au contraire. It's reasonable to assume that future advances in science will enable humans to redirect an asteroid. If we can do so at sufficient distance, the difference between an asteroid hitting or missing the Earth, can be as little as 1 millimeter.
Well, almost... they have a way of exploding in our atmosphere, and it makes a nasty mess of things. So, best not to let them too close. These suckers come out of nowheres, real fast, like 50,000-100,000 mph fast, unless we were able to ring the planet at the tropics (Capricorn and Cancer) with some spiffy wide angle gamma ray type scopes/radar searching way far off and mapping it all on screen 24/7/365 for the northern and southern hemispheres... I dunno, that's just to be sure we see it coming; then you have to steer it? Maybe we will come up with a Buck Rogers ray gun for rocks that can push it away, make it veer off course? Mankind is going to cooperate to build this stuff? Mankind has never been willing to cooperate for the easiest of things, let alone this assignment. This much I am sure of, if we ever did build it, they would have a big opening day ceremony, and just before they hit the global switch to turn it on...
 
One way or another, virtually everything we do as humans is done with some sort of profit in mind. 100 years ago, it was reasonable to ask what profit there might be in feeding the impoverished world?
One hundred years ago? The impoverished World? Who was that? The beggars on our streets? Philanthropists fed them -

No it isn't so - mankind has survived through barter and trade not profit - profit isn't natural to us - co operation is -
 

fairsheet

Senator
One hundred years ago? The impoverished World? Who was that? The beggars on our streets? Philanthropists fed them -

No it isn't so - mankind has survived through barter and trade not profit - profit isn't natural to us - co operation is -
Barter and trade represent "profit". Economics of yore, "the dismal science", insisted that we'd all have died of mass starvati0n, many decades ago. That didn't happen.
 
Barter and trade represent "profit". Economics of yore, "the dismal science", insisted that we'd all have died of mass starvati0n, many decades ago. That didn't happen.
Barter isn't profit - it is equal - so in a sense is trade, or it should be - riches are more complex -

There would be no starvation if trade were fair - what is rich? A feather bed? beautiful objects? A beautiful woman/man?

We still hear the prediction of starvation today - it is one of those fear strategies to rise prices and such like -
 

Bernard_Fokke

Captain Fokke
Supporting Member
Au contraire. It's reasonable to assume that future advances in science will enable humans to redirect an asteroid. If we can do so at sufficient distance, the difference between an asteroid hitting or missing the Earth, can be as little as 1 millimeter.
Well Mr Fairsheet it's my understanding that the US collectively spends less on detecting NEO's and potential impact problems than it does studying what the best tooth whitener is.

Point being here is by the time a private astronomer (Hobbyist most likely) spots one and manages to convince the powers that be we actually have a problem it's going to be close and in spite of Hollywood I'm not sure we as a world have the technology or the equipment to get a deterrent into the air/space and actually hit an asteroid with, I'd suppose a large nuke at enough distance to actually deflect enough to miss earth.

I'd like to see the world governments take the threat a lot more seriously though as if we were to suffer an impact, even a moderate one it could ruin our days here on earth as a species.

To make it even uglier let's suppose it's a rock say 1.5 to 2 miles in diameter and we actually do manage to scramble around and hit it with a large nuke what would the odds be of it breaking up into dozens of smaller asteroids, small being a relative term like 100 yards in diameter, and the now dozens of pieces of soon to be meteors continue on in roughly the same path and some still strike earth.

Just playing with the numbers a two cubic mile rock would work out to roughly 10,903,552,000 cubic yards and estimating 2000 pounds per cu yd we end up with roughly 11,252,313,096 metric tons of weight and mass potentially impacting the earth.

I have no idea how to estimate the mega joules of energy released per pound on a meteoric impact, however I do know beyond any shadow of a doubt I don't want to be anywhere near even a small one.
 
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Days

Commentator
Well Mr Fairsheet it's my understanding that the US collectively spends less on detecting NEO's and potential impact problems than it does studying what the best tooth whitener is.

Point being here is by the time a private astronomer (Hobbyist most likely) spots one and manages to convince the powers that be we actually have a problem it's going to be close and in spite of Hollywood I'm not sure we as a world have the technology or the equipment to get a deterrent into the air/space and actually hit an asteroid with, I'd suppose a large nuke at enough distance to actually deflect enough to miss earth.

I'd like to see the world governments take the threat a lot more seriously though as if we were to suffer an impact, even a moderate one it could ruin our days here on earth as a species.

To make it even uglier let's suppose it's a rock say 1.5 to 2 miles in diameter and we actually do manage to scramble around and hit it with a large nuke what would the odds be of it breaking up into dozens of smaller asteroids, small being a relative term like 100 yards in diameter, and the now dozens of pieces of soon to be meteors continue on in roughly the same path and some still strike earth.

Just playing with the numbers a two cubic mile rock would work out to roughly 10,903,552,000 cubic yards and estimating 2000 pounds per cu yd we end up with roughly 11,252,313,096 metric tons of weight and mass potentially impacting the earth.

I have no idea how to estimate the mega joules of energy released per pound on a meteoric impact, however I do know beyond any shadow of a doubt I don't want to be anywhere near even a small one.
Breaking it up is a big mistake. Those 100 yard wide rocks tend to explode in spectacular fashion. JO has another thread on that, I think. Think nuclear explosions, multiple nuclear explosions for your particular example.

No, the only thing we have that might work is ELF waves. Push the rock off course while it is way far off; all we need is to change its course a tiny bit while it is still millions of miles away. The harder part is detecting which ones are on course for us from that far out.
 
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