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Greece struggles to find creditors

Max R.

On the road
Supporting Member
It was a tossup on whether to put this in economics or foreign affairs, but since our economy is inextricably linked to the EU, China, Japan and other foreign markets, any problems with their markets have ramifications for ours.

A collapse of Greece or a full or partial breakup of the EU would have vast repercussions to the US economy; some good but mostly bad.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32335758
Greece would struggle to find creditors outside the EU and IMF, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has said.

He said it would be welcome to try to find investment from Beijing or Moscow, but may have difficulties.

His warning came after fears of a Greek debt default saw its borrowing costs jump 3.5 percentage points to 27%.

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his government refuses to consider leaving the EU: "Toying with Grexit... is profoundly anti-European."

He also promised to "compromise, compromise, compromise without being compromised" to satisfy current creditors.

Both men were speaking at talks in Washington.

On Wednesday, ratings agency S&P downgraded Greece's credit rating.

Yields also rose on longer-term Greek borrowing, with the 10-year bond yield - the amount investors demand for lending - rising one percentage point to 13%.

Mr Schaeuble said that the Greek government needs to find creditors.

"The Europeans have said, OK, we are ready to do it [lend money] until 2020... If you find someone else, whether it's in Beijing, in Moscow, in Washington DC, or in New York who will lend you money, ok, fine, we would be happy. But it's difficult to find someone who is lending you in this situation amounts [of] €200bn."

He added that Greece must focus on increasing its competitiveness and primary surplus.

Mr Schaeuble was speaking after the Greek government's borrowing costs surged on Thursday.

'Not recommended'
The Financial Times had earlier reported that Greece had made an "informal approach" to the International Monetary Fund to have its bailout repayments delayed, but had been rebuffed.

But the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, said at the World Bank spring meeting in Washington: "We have never had an advanced economy asking for payment delays.

"Payment delays are analysed as additional financing granted to that country. Additional financing means additional contribution by the international community - some of which are in much direr situations than the country eventually seeking those delays.

"Payment delays had not been granted by the board of the IMF in the last 30 years and it was eventually granted to a couple of developing countries and that delay was not followed by very productive results.

"It's clearly not a course of action that would actually fit or be recommendable in the current situation."

Greece owes the IMF some €1bn (£720m, $1.06bn) in repayments next month.

Market concerns
Many in the markets think the Greek government will struggle to make those payments if it does not agree an economic reform package with European creditors soon.

Failure to agree a plan with creditors will mean that the country will default, a development that could force the government to put limits on money transfers and even lead the country to leave the euro.

EU spokesman Margaritis Schinas said on Thursday that the EU was "not satisfied with the level of progress made so far" in debt negotiations.

BBC economics editor Robert Peston said if Greece misses a debt payment, that does not necessarily mean it will leave the euro.

"The government could follow the example of Cyprus and impose restrictions on the export of capital from the country, to conserve as much cash as possible in a banking system too close to collapse for comfort," he said.

"And it could create its own IOUs, a sort of parallel domestic currency interchangeable with euros, to pay its employees and trade creditors."

Mr Schaeuble had warned that he did not expect an agreement between Athens and its creditors in the next week.

'Optimistic'
But Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Thursday said he was "firmly optimistic" the Greek government could reach a deal with its creditors.

"Despite the cacophony and erratic leaks and statements in recent days from the other side, I remain firmly optimistic that there will be an agreement by the end of the month," Mr Tsipras said.

According to Mr Tsipras, several points of agreement had been found since talks first started, including on areas such as tax collection, corruption and initiatives to distribute the tax burden on those who have the ability to pay.

But he said the two sides still disagreed on four areas: labour issues, pension reform, an increase in value-added taxes and privatisations, which he referred to as "development of state property".

In a later tweet, he said he was "certain that Europe will choose the path to democracy".
 
It was a tossup on whether to put this in economics or foreign affairs, but since our economy is inextricably linked to the EU, China, Japan and other foreign markets, any problems with their markets have ramifications for ours.

A collapse of Greece or a full or partial breakup of the EU would have vast repercussions to the US economy; some good but mostly bad.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32335758
I dispute the notion that a greek default would have repercussions for america. Its mostly European banks ( and mostly german that hold this debt )

A greek exit from the EU might make it stronger in the long run. They (EU members)WON'T be pouring money down that rat hole any longer, and other member nations will be on notice that lying about their budgets and deficits will have consequences
 

Max R.

On the road
Supporting Member
I dispute the notion that a greek default would have repercussions for america. Its mostly European banks ( and mostly german that hold this debt )

A greek exit from the EU might make it stronger in the long run. They (EU members)WON'T be pouring money down that rat hole any longer, and other member nations will be on notice that lying about their budgets and deficits will have consequences
Disagreed that the US wouldn't be affected. A strong US dollar (or a weaker Euro) means less US exports to Europe. That impacts well over 11 million premium US jobs.

http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment/
In 2014, exports of goods and services directly and indirectly supported an estimated 11.7 million U.S. jobs. Nationally, goods exports consisting of manufactured products, agricultural products, natural resources and used/second-hand products supported 7.1 million jobs, of which 6.2 million jobs were supported by exports of manufactured products. The export of services accounted for the remaining 4.6 million jobs supported..... It estimates that workers in export-intensive services industries earn 15 to 20 percent more than comparable workers in other industries.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/us-greece-default-idUSTRE78F1LO20110916
Banking sector problems would hurt equity markets at large: stock valuations would fall significantly, raising concerns over the ability of corporations to raise capital. This would hurt business and consumer sentiment and further diminish likelihood of a meaningful global recovery, said Rabobank's McGuire.

European stock markets saw their biggest monthly fall since the mid-2009 in August, and have shed nearly 6 percent this month as fears of a Greek default escalated.

"History teaches us stocks can get cheaper, but confidence will be blown so much in the process it will take years to recover," said Louise Cooper, markets analyst at BGC Partners.

An unmanaged Greek default would also cause a sharp fall in the euro versus the dollar from current levels around $1.38, currency strategists said. They said it could drop to around $1.20 or below. The euro lost around 6 percent against the dollar in the first two weeks of September.
http://www.businessinsider.com/grexit-if-greece-leaves-the-euro-2015-2
And for the rest of Europe and the world, Wells Fargo analysts think that the effects may be manageable:

Obligations to “official” creditors such as the IMF, the ECB and the governments of other European economies account for the vast majority of Greece’s $500 billion worth of external debt, so these institutions would bear the brunt of foreign losses from a Greek default. Foreign bank exposure to Greece totals only $46 billion, which is widely dispersed among countries, so the direct effects of Grexit on the private sector in other countries should be manageable, at least in theory. Of course, financial markets may react negatively if Greece were indeed to leave the Eurozone, and we worry that contagion could spread to other European countries.
 

connieb

Senator
Disagreed that the US wouldn't be affected. A strong US dollar (or a weaker Euro) means less US exports to Europe. That impacts well over 11 million premium US jobs.

http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment/


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/us-greece-default-idUSTRE78F1LO20110916


http://www.businessinsider.com/grexit-if-greece-leaves-the-euro-2015-2
The concern too is what will their default do to the broader credit market? I think it could have very far reaching effects.
 

Max R.

On the road
Supporting Member
The concern too is what will their default do to the broader credit market? I think it could have very far reaching effects.
There is, indeed that risk. OTOH, as Merkel has pointed out, just throwing money down a hole without changing the dynamics involved won't work either. While I believe there is some middle-ground to be found, I mostly side with Merkel's logic. Greece is a basket-case and they need to get their own house in order.
 

connieb

Senator
There is, indeed that risk. OTOH, as Merkel has pointed out, just throwing money down a hole without changing the dynamics involved won't work either. While I believe there is some middle-ground to be found, I mostly side with Merkel's logic. Greece is a basket-case and they need to get their own house in order.
Oh, I completely agree. You can not keep throwing good money after bad. At some point Greece will have to make a major shift and change in its culture. I think their creditors are going to make that happen sooner, rather than later.
 

PhilFish

Administrator
Staff member
Oh, I completely agree. You can not keep throwing good money after bad. At some point Greece will have to make a major shift and change in its culture. I think their creditors are going to make that happen sooner, rather than later.
Hey...and perhaps Greece becomes a cheap vacation destination
 
It was a tossup on whether to put this in economics or foreign affairs, but since our economy is inextricably linked to the EU, China, Japan and other foreign markets, any problems with their markets have ramifications for ours.

A collapse of Greece or a full or partial breakup of the EU would have vast repercussions to the US economy; some good but mostly bad.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32335758
Michael Hudson argues the Troika's demand for rent extraction in Greece shows how finance has become the new mode of warfare:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/06/26/the-delphi-declaration/

"The creditors’ objective is the same as military conquest: they want the land, the natural resource rights and monopolies, and they want tribute (in this case, debt service). And they don’t want sovereign Greece to tax the economic rent from these assets. In short, the negotiation between The Institutions and Greece is a bold exercise in rent extraction."

Hudson has studied/practiced/taught Economics for fifty years.

"Michael Hudson (born 1939) is research professor of economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City (UMKC) and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.[1] He is a formerWall Streetanalyst[2] and consultant as well as president of the Institute for the Study of Long-term Economic Trends (ISLET) and a founding member of International Scholars Conference on Ancient Near Eastern Economies (ISCANEE).[3]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Hudson_(economist)
 

Max R.

On the road
Supporting Member
Michael Hudson argues the Troika's demand for rent extraction in Greece shows how finance has become the new mode of warfare:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/06/26/the-delphi-declaration/

"The creditors’ objective is the same as military conquest: they want the land, the natural resource rights and monopolies, and they want tribute (in this case, debt service). And they don’t want sovereign Greece to tax the economic rent from these assets. In short, the negotiation between The Institutions and Greece is a bold exercise in rent extraction."

Hudson has studied/practiced/taught Economics for fifty years.

"Michael Hudson (born 1939) is research professor of economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City (UMKC) and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.[1] He is a formerWall Streetanalyst[2] and consultant as well as president of the Institute for the Study of Long-term Economic Trends (ISLET) and a founding member of International Scholars Conference on Ancient Near Eastern Economies (ISCANEE).[3]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Hudson_(economist)
So now refusing to give a spendthrift a loan is considered an act of war? Sorry, but that's truckload of horse pucky.

Greece dug it's own hole here and now want others to bail them out. They're the national version of welfare queens.
 
So now refusing to give a spendthrift a loan is considered an act of war? Sorry, but that's truckload of horse pucky.

Greece dug it's own hole here and now want others to bail them out. They're the national version of welfare queens.
Do you think the crisis in Greece is driven principally by supply or demand? The unregulated financial activities that crashed the global economy in 2008 has now made Greece the epicenter of round two of that crisis. Goldman Sachs bears more responsibility for the Greek economy today than Greek pensioners do, imho.
 

Max R.

On the road
Supporting Member
Do you think the crisis in Greece is driven principally by supply or demand? The unregulated financial activities that crashed the global economy in 2008 has now made Greece the epicenter of round two of that crisis. Goldman Sachs bears more responsibility for the Greek economy today than Greek pensioners do, imho.
I think it's driven principally by the fact the Greek government wrote checks it couldn't cash.
 

fairsheet

Senator
There seems to be some disagreement above, as to the affect a Greek default might have on our American economy. Put me down on the "little to none" side. In any case, this question may be answered very soon. Do we suppose those whose predictions are WRONG, will cop to it? Yeah....probably not.

In any case, it's hard for me to conjure up much sympathy for the Greeks. I remember a few years back, when they elected a President who promised to address their economic plight without raising taxes. All he proposed, was that the Greek tax compliance rate be improved from around 50% to 60%. Once the Greeks figured out that this guy intended to do exactly as he campaigned, they couldn't get rid of him fast enough.
 
I think it's driven principally by the fact the Greek government wrote checks it couldn't cash.
No doubt. The corruption of government in Greece ensures massive tax evasion and check kiting.

"Alleged origin of Greek corruption[edit]


"Commentators both within and outside Greece have attributed this flaw in Greek culture to a mismanagement of Ottoman Greece by the Ottoman Empire.

"In Ottoman-occupied Greece tax resistance became a form of patriotism,[8][9] and property and commercial tax systems were left in shambles.[10]

"In addition, a culture of becoming rich quickly has been prevalent among Greeks in the last three decades (1980's, 1990's,2000's).

"This culture compounds the problem of corruption."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_evasion_and_corruption_in_Greece#Alleged_origin_of_Greek_corruption
 

Max R.

On the road
Supporting Member
The business world is watching to see what happens here. What cannot happen is for the status quo to remain the same.
 

freyasman

Senator
The business world is watching to see what happens here. What cannot happen is for the status quo to remain the same.
Argentina had an economic meltdown back in 2001; they still haven't recovered. http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/sap/Argentina_crisis.php In fact, they seem to be slowly and steadily getting worse. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/04/01/argentina-economy-inflation/7011063/ Hopefully for Greece, their crisis will not be as bad or as seemingly permanent. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-imposes-capital-controls-crisis-011908384.html
 

Jets

Conservative Pragmatist
This is an example of why continuing to borrow while accululating debt is not a great idea. Kind of like trying to dig your way out of a hole...

IMHO
 

Max R.

On the road
Supporting Member
Argentina had an economic meltdown back in 2001; they still haven't recovered. http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/sap/Argentina_crisis.php In fact, they seem to be slowly and steadily getting worse. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/04/01/argentina-economy-inflation/7011063/ Hopefully for Greece, their crisis will not be as bad or as seemingly permanent. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greece-imposes-capital-controls-crisis-011908384.html
It's up to the Greeks. Like US cities/states that overspent and then blamed others for their problems, in the end, it is up to the Greeks to get their financial house in order or suffer the consequences.
 

fairsheet

Senator
This is an example of why continuing to borrow while accululating debt is not a great idea. Kind of like trying to dig your way out of a hole...

IMHO
Actually, it's a VERY good idea when the promised return on your borrowing is greater than its cost. It's a fundamental capitalist bidness thing.
 

Jets

Conservative Pragmatist
Actually, it's a VERY good idea when the promised return on your borrowing is greater than its cost. It's a fundamental capitalist bidness thing.
Not if the debt keeps accumulating, than it becomes a loss. Thats why some go out of bidness. ;)
 
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