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I cannot say this any better.

Discussion in 'Economics, Business, and Taxes' started by Woolleybugger, Jul 6, 2012.

  1. Lukey

    Lukey Senator

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    Are you working on that list of specific workers that the Obama "stimulus" bill employed? After all, you have to identify them before you can measure them. How's it coming? Feel free to list it in sections, as you identify them (rather than waiting until you have the complete list to post them).
     
  2. degsme

    degsme Council Member

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    Three million ain't gonna be listed. But we can point to specific groups of workers who are directly employed as a result of the AJRA. within 30 minuted drive of my house, I can bring you to almost a dozen infrastructure projects that would not be happening without the AJRA. And that's what the CBO went and looked at when they came up with their numbers. Same with the OMB. They actually dispatched accountants to each of the states to see what jobs were being protected by the AJRA.

    As a result the OMB estimated 4.5 million jobs saved/created, CBO estimated 3.0 saved and created.

    And before you spout another one of your bits about how Fiscal Multipliers are "just theory" - explain then how an economy works if not for fiscal multipliers?
     
  3. degsme

    degsme Council Member

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    go look at the research that underpins the OBM and CBO estimates. They dispatched accountants to the individual states to see precisely how the $$ flowed.
     
  4. degsme

    degsme Council Member

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    Actually Bill Bain INVITED Romney to be one of the partners starting the consulting firm. And where Romney got the money to "buy in" is not at all clear. I suspect it was from Daddy Warbucks - But no one knows since Romney isn't disclosing financial records of that.
     
  5. Lukey

    Lukey Senator

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    Estimates? ESTIMATES? I thought you told me your theories rely on measured outcomes...
     
  6. degsme

    degsme Council Member

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    Everything to do with policy at a scale above a few thousand people is an ESTIMATE. Even elections are estimates with very real MoEs. That you don't get this is telling about your maths...
     
  7. degsme

    degsme Council Member

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    Inevitable? How is bankruptcy inevitable? And since when have we NOT rationed care?

    Um by sending accountants out to the states where the grants were being spent and looking specifically at which jobs were funded by the additional spending.

    Its nowhere near "record unemployment".

    a
    In every downturn some people "stop looking" by either going back to school or retiring early. Again This is nothing unique or new to Obama


    Never took place. Try again.

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    No such Constitutional obligation, nor is the immigration issue a threat to our borders. Add in that Article II Section 2 OF THE CONSTITITON explicitly gives POTUS "the power to grant reprieves for Offenses against the United States" and you don't have much of a case here.

    What you really are whining about is that the GOP Congress thought that if it simply refused to cooperate in any sort of productive negotiations with The POTUS that somehow this would prevent Obama's authority as Executive. While it does hamstring the WH ability to act, it does not stop it. And in its temper tantrum, the Congress has basically painted itself into the lowest approval ratings in history and handed Obama on a silver platter, the ability to act unilaterally.

    You don't like that becaues your views are in the minorty and are outplayed. sucks.

    As opposed to? (BTW how is it "standing idly" to have mroe effective alingment on this with the PRC and Russia than under GWB? or is that StuxNet was just nothing)

    -
    Again any factual evidence of this being "half-assed" Or is it just more political spin by someone who hated Obama since before he was the nominee?

    Really? Obama Set latinos against??? perhaps those seeking to deny then "No taxation without representation"?

    As for House Budget Chairmen acting in good faith? Where? I see ZERO evidence of Ryan acting in "good faith". Particularly since many of the claims in his budget leave out well known but inconvenient facts.

    So off the top of your head you've listed a bunch of factually unsupportable opinion, some of which is contradicted by demonstrable facts. That's the very defintiion of bigotry.
     
  8. Lukey

    Lukey Senator

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    So Keynesianism's "predictive ability and its long term track record" is based on its adherents' ability to run numbers through a Keynesian econometric model and "prove" that it achieved its objectives. That is what we commonly refer to as a "joke."
     
  9. degsme

    degsme Council Member

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    Nice strawman. An estimate does not necessarily mean it was run though a "keynesian econometric model". If I track a grant to the state Department of Ed. And we know from previous data within this state that for every $1 in grants to the state we have $0.85 going into the classroom teacher's salary. Then the rest is just math. But since that math is based on the AVERAGE teacher's salary it is an... wait for it.... ESTIMATE.

    Still waiting for you to explain how an economy works if there is no such thing as a Fiscal Multiplier.

    Without a Fiscal Multiplier, where does the Velocity of Money metric come from?
     
  10. Lukey

    Lukey Senator

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    There are all sorts of "fiscal multipliers." Sometimes it is more than one, sometimes less than one, and sometimes it is "zero" (i.e. one for one - no multiplier). And they are infinitely variable so a transaction with a positive multiplier today may produce a negative multiplier tomorrow. My guess (more like informed opinion) is that the various government spending multipliers (on average) decline as the overall size of government increases. And, with respect to your example, you do not account for the loss of wages (and/or other economic output) that does NOT occur because the government has taken $1 out of the private economy to grow the public sector by hiring a (likely as not, unneeded) teacher. That is at the heart of the flaw in your reasoning, that the government can more effectively invest that $1 than the private sector can, and/or that it can do so independent of all other transactional decisions in the economy. And the failure to measure that which is "not seen" is the fundamental flaw in the Keynesian econometric models that "prove" this kind of big governmentism works when all observational knowledge of how political economies operate tells us that the exact opposite is in fact the case.
     
  11. degsme

    degsme Council Member

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    And your FACTUAL EVIDENCE to support this claim? non-existant as usual... once again you hide behind weasel words: "may" "sometimes"

    Using your line of reasoning the computer you posted that with could not operate since the complexity and statistical probabilities of just the quantum mechanics involved in Quantum Tunneling used in the powersupply, are outside our ability to calculate perfectly. and "sometimes" an electron will migrate through the insulator off into space and the next one "may" fail to tunnel...

    and yet the overall statistically supported modeling of the Zener diode in your power supply works, as do the statistical ESTIMATES of the hundreds of millions of transistors in the CPU and other components.

    What is also curious is that you have now magically gone from claiming Fiscal Multipliers are a "Keynesian myth" to admitting they exist. All, perhaps, because you got challenged to show how the econometrics of money velocity works without them.

    Setting aside that you have yet to demonstrate any sort of "informed opinion" in pretty much anything, mainly making up your claims out of straw, you are further engaged in yet another strawman. Government spending, as a fraction of the Economy and on a per-capita basis, is dramatically lower than it has been in the historic past. That means that we are not in the realm of "unknown fiscal multipliers".

    Secondly, while it may be that a particular Fiscal Multiplier declines associated with the overall size of government, simply a "decline" is meaningless. the Altitude of Mt. Everest "declines" dramatically more rapidly than the downslope on back 9 of the Auburn Hills KS Golf Course. But even AT ITS BASE, the height of Mt Everest is higher than the highest point of the Auburn Hills Golf Course.

    And we know that the Fiscal Multiplier for things like Child Care subsidies is 3.5+ whereas the FM for tax cuts to the upper quintiles is UNDER 0.7 So even if the Child Care subsidy FM declines at a rate THREE TIMES GREATER than that of upper quintile tax cuts, the Upper Quintile Tax cut FM will NEVER BE higher than that for Child Care subsidies.

     
  12. Lukey

    Lukey Senator

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    Would those be the ones the states t substituted federal dollars for state dollars to pay for?

    http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2011/03/why-stimulus-failed-to-boost.html
     
  13. Woolleybugger

    Woolleybugger Mayor

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    Which projects would those be? I have worked on projects from ARRA that have nothing to do with state funding.
     

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