How the Electoral College favors Democrats and why Republicans must change it
Specifically, the Republican candidate must nearly run the table on the battleground states in order to squeak into the
White House, whereas the Democratic candidate has multiple pathways to victory.
Let me break it down by state and electoral votes.
The Democrat will almost always win the following states: California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Republicans haven't won New York, Oregon, Washington, or Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide win.
They haven’t won California, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania since 1988. Those states are worth 183 electoral votes. Thus, the Democrat likely enters the 2016 election with a base of 242 electoral votes.
The Republican will almost always win Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Those states give the Republican a base of 170 electoral votes.
This electoral vote allocation leaves the Democrat just 28 electoral votes from The White House, while the Republican needs an additional 100 electoral votes to win. There are only 126 electoral votes left among the 11 battleground states.
This assumes Colorado and Virginia really remain toss-up states, which is doubtful. Thus, the Republican must win 79 percent of the remaining electoral votes.
To put a starker gloss on the Republican’s tough predicament, a loss in just Florida ends the race. Period.