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Maria cometh, RIP Puerto Rico

Days

Commentator
There once was an island named "Rich Port"... alas, she is no more. For along came a girl named "Maria" and that's where the story ends.

8 AM Wednesday: Maria's eye enters the southeast beaches of Puerto Rico.

12 hours: Maria's eye runs straight down the center of the island.

8 PM Wednesday: Maria's eye leaves the northwest beaches of Puerto Rico.

Maria is Irma's twin sister. she is category 5, has perfect formation, and is moving west/northwest at 9 mph.

The entire island of Puerto Rico should get to taste the eye of her storm. for 12 hours straight. that's insane.

 

Days

Commentator
It's looking really bad.
... and getting worse! Here's an excerpt from the latest AP story...

With Puerto Rico appearing destined for a hit, officials in the U.S. territory warned residents of wooden or otherwise flimsy homes to find safe shelter.
“You have to evacuate. Otherwise you’re going to die,” said Hector Pesquera, Puerto Rico’s public safety commissioner. “I don’t know how to make this any clearer.”
The U.S. territory imposed rationing of basic supplies including water, milk, baby formula, canned food, batteries and flashlights.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Maria had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 kph) Monday evening. It was heading west-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph).
“Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye,” the center warned.
That’s a sign of an extremely strong hurricane likely to get even mightier, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. Just like when a spinning ice skater brings in their arms and rotates faster, a smaller, tighter eye shows the same physics, he said.
Maria’s eye shrank to a narrow 10 miles (16 kilometers) across.
“You just don’t see those in weaker hurricanes,” McNoldy said.
 

Jen

Senator
There once was an island named "Rich Port"... alas, she is no more. For along came a girl named "Maria" and that's where the story ends.

8 AM Wednesday: Maria's eye enters the southeast beaches of Puerto Rico.

12 hours: Maria's eye runs straight down the center of the island.

8 PM Wednesday: Maria's eye leaves the northwest beaches of Puerto Rico.

Maria is Irma's twin sister. she is category 5, has perfect formation, and is moving west/northwest at 9 mph.

The entire island of Puerto Rico should get to taste the eye of her storm. for 12 hours straight. that's insane.

At this point it looks like it will hit on the southeast side between Humacao and Ponce. Roosevelt Roads NAS was on the easternmost point (just northeast of Ceiba which is NE of Humacao). The former NAS is all at sea level or a few feet above........ it will no doubt totally flood. The gates to the base always became impassable by flooding even in a tropical storm.

The family of some friends lives in Humacao. I doubt they will be able to leave. All the better homes are made of cinder blocks and have flat roofs that people can go to. But if the storm surge is more than 12 feet........... an entire one-story house will be under water.

Many houses from Ceiba (just south of the NAS) to Ponce are just wooden shacks. Lots of people will be lost if that hurricane does what it looks like it's going to do.

This is what I can tell you from having lived there for almost 3 years.
 

Days

Commentator
At this point it looks like it will hit on the southeast side between Humacao and Ponce. Roosevelt Roads NAS was on the easternmost point (just northeast of Ceiba which is NE of Humacao). The former NAS is all at sea level or a few feet above........ it will no doubt totally flood. The gates to the base always became impassable by flooding even in a tropical storm.

The family of some friends lives in Humacao. I doubt they will be able to leave. All the better homes are made of cinder blocks and have flat roofs that people can go to. But if the storm surge is more than 12 feet........... an entire one-story house will be under water.

Many houses from Ceiba (just south of the NAS) to Ponce are just wooden shacks. Lots of people will be lost if that hurricane does what it looks like it's going to do.

This is what I can tell you from having lived there for almost 3 years.
Maria is down to 942 millibars and still strengthening. She's going to look exactly like Irma @ Barbuda, when she hits Puerto Rico... except Maria is moving slower.

storm surge should be at least 25 feet. eyewall wind gusts will be over 200 mph. And Maria eye will spend 12 hours crossing Puerto Rico.

it is surreal
 

Jen

Senator
Maria is down to 942 millibars and still strengthening. She's going to look exactly like Irma @ Barbuda, when she hits Puerto Rico... except Maria is moving slower.

storm surge should be at least 25 feet. eyewall wind gusts will be over 200 mph. And Maria eye will spend 12 hours crossing Puerto Rico.

it is surreal
The difference is the sizes of the islands and the mountains. Barbuda is about 62 square miles. Puerto Rico is about 3500 square miles with mountains of a pretty good height for an island:
The highest elevation in Puerto Rico, Cerro de Punta 1,339 meters (4,393 ft), is located in this range. Another important peak is El Yunque, one of the highest in the Sierra de Luquillo at the El Yunque National Forest, with an elevation of 1,065 m (3,494 ft).

That might help. But those on that southeast shore need to get out. The way the mountain starts up not far from the shores tells me that people will be swept out to sea. The mountain areas of PR are total very thick jungles, good roads are few. So if they are going up the mountain they should have started by now (not that that would be safe).

I'll look up my house on the base on Google. It was very close to the water but I want to see exactly how it sits.
Note: hahaha....... the houses are gone. My house was straight down from the "s" in Roosevelt Roads just to the left of the skinny little neck part where the land makes a V into the ocean.. That area will flood right out.

 
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Days

Commentator
The difference is the sizes of the islands and the mountains. Barbuda is about 62 square miles. Puerto Rico is about 3500 square miles with mountains of a pretty good height for an island:
The highest elevation in Puerto Rico, Cerro de Punta 1,339 meters (4,393 ft), is located in this range. Another important peak is El Yunque, one of the highest in the Sierra de Luquillo at the El Yunque National Forest, with an elevation of 1,065 m (3,494 ft).

That might help. But those on that southeast shore need to get out. The way the mountain starts up not far from the shores tells me that people will be swept out to sea. The mountain areas of PR are total very thick jungles, good roads are few. So if they are going up the mountain they should have started by now (not that that would be safe).
Maria will weaken with her eye over land that long. But if she goes in a high category 5; and given the good feed from warm waters all around Puerto Rico, I'd guess she will come out category 2 or 3. 12 hours is a long time over land for the eye, but the hurricane is easily ten times the size of Puerto Rico, and she heads north out of there, so her feedwinds are going to remain strong.

sounds like the storm surge is going to riptide against the mountains... I hope nobody is thinking of riding that out.
 

Jen

Senator
Maria will weaken with her eye over land that long. But if she goes in a high category 5; and given the good feed from warm waters all around Puerto Rico, I'd guess she will come out category 2 or 3. 12 hours is a long time over land for the eye, but the hurricane is easily ten times the size of Puerto Rico, and she heads north out of there, so her feedwinds are going to remain strong.

sounds like the storm surge is going to riptide against the mountains... I hope nobody is thinking of riding that out.
It is just going to be terrible.
I can't even imagine.
 

Days

Commentator
It is just going to be terrible.
I can't even imagine.
Still bearing down on Puerto Rico and Maria is getting seriously strong. She's now down to 927 millibars which is just 7 millibars off the record set by Allen. (the lower the barometer in the eye, the more powerful the hurricane)

the eye is digging deep into the water... that's what creates the storm surge.

Maria is the picture of fury...

 

Jen

Senator
Still bearing down on Puerto Rico and Maria is getting seriously strong. She's now down to 927 millibars which is just 7 millibars off the record set by Allen. (the lower the barometer in the eye, the more powerful the hurricane)

the eye is digging deep into the water... that's what creates the storm surge.

Maria is the picture of fury...

But at this moment it looks like the eye might touch or be right off the eastern tip of PR. That might be better than going onto the island at Ponce which is about mid-island on the southern edge.
 

Days

Commentator
But at this moment it looks like the eye might touch or be right off the eastern tip of PR. That might be better than going onto the island at Ponce which is about mid-island on the southern edge.
NOAA still has it going dead center through the island... it's amazing how hurricanes react to prayer, you never know what is about to happen.
 

Jen

Senator
NOAA still has it going dead center through the island... it's amazing how hurricanes react to prayer, you never know what is about to happen.
And I am praying Maria will skirt around PR in a less damaging way and miss the USA completely.
 

Days

Commentator
And I am praying Maria will skirt around PR in a less damaging way and miss the USA completely.
Jesus, I hope I rememberred the record for the lowest barometer correctly, maybe not...

at any rate, here we go Maria!

909 millibars of barometric pressure in the eye

175 mph sustained eyewall winds

Should make landfall in the morning on the southside of and slicing straight through the middle of Puerto Rico bearing northwest @ 10 mph

... this storm is now stronger than Irma was.
 

Days

Commentator
Maria!

909 millibars of barometric pressure in the eye

175 mph sustained eyewall winds

MAJOR HURRICANES (Link)

With only 892 millibars of central barometric pressure, the Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys in 1935 and was classified as a Category 5. Another Category 5 storm with a central pressure of 909 millibars, Hurricane Camille made landfall in Mississippi in 1965. Hurricane Andrew with a central pressure of 922 millibars was also a Category 5 and struck southeastern Florida in 1992. Category 5 Hurricane Charley made landfall in Punta Gorda, Florida, in 2004 with a central pressure of 941 millibars. Although it was classified as a strong Category 3 storm, Hurricane Katrina at 920 millibars caused widespread devastation along many areas of the central Gulf Coast and had the third lowest central pressure ever recorded.


Lowest Pressure Readings from Tropical Storms by Ocean Basin (Link)

Here is a summary of the lowest barometric pressures measured or estimated to have occurred in tropical storms by ocean basins:

 

Jen

Senator
MAJOR HURRICANES (Link)

With only 892 millibars of central barometric pressure, the Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys in 1935 and was classified as a Category 5. Another Category 5 storm with a central pressure of 909 millibars, Hurricane Camille made landfall in Mississippi in 1965. Hurricane Andrew with a central pressure of 922 millibars was also a Category 5 and struck southeastern Florida in 1992. Category 5 Hurricane Charley made landfall in Punta Gorda, Florida, in 2004 with a central pressure of 941 millibars. Although it was classified as a strong Category 3 storm, Hurricane Katrina at 920 millibars caused widespread devastation along many areas of the central Gulf Coast and had the third lowest central pressure ever recorded.


Lowest Pressure Readings from Tropical Storms by Ocean Basin (Link)

Here is a summary of the lowest barometric pressures measured or estimated to have occurred in tropical storms by ocean basins:

There are other things to note besides the barometric pressure, but that is certainly a huge harbinger of terribleness. I pray for Puerto Rico.
 

Days

Commentator
And I am praying Maria will skirt around PR in a less damaging way and miss the USA completely.
I just tracked the eye and it appears to be headed for the eastern tip of Puerto Rico... straight at Roosevelt Roads. this is going to be really bad.

power = mass x speed

power of hurricane = eyewall volume x sustained windspeed

the more powerful the eyewall, the lower the barometric pressure inside the eye.

So hurricane Allen had the fastest sustained windspeeds (195 mph) but it was not the most powerful hurricane (920 millibars).

the latest advisory on Maria reads 909 millibars; puts her in the top 5 most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record. For comparison, Irma got down to 928 millibars.

infra red satellite of the Caribbean:



look at the perfect swirl of bright white (highest water vapor content) that feeds the pinhole eye. Maria is a perfect picture of power and fury.
 

Days

Commentator
I just tracked the eye and it appears to be headed for the eastern tip of Puerto Rico... straight at Roosevelt Roads. this is going to be really bad.

power = mass x speed

power of hurricane = eyewall volume x sustained windspeed

the more powerful the eyewall, the lower the barometric pressure inside the eye.

So hurricane Allen had the fastest sustained windspeeds (195 mph) but it was not the most powerful hurricane (920 millibars).

the latest advisory on Maria reads 909 millibars; puts her in the top 5 most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record. For comparison, Irma got down to 928 millibars.

infra red satellite of the Caribbean:



look at the perfect swirl of bright white (highest water vapor content) that feeds the pinhole eye. Maria is a perfect picture of power and fury.
Maria's eye is only 10 miles across... if she will steer a little harder north, tonight, and stay offshore, east of Puerto Rico... wow, that would be much better. they will still get a wicked storm surge, but that eyewall is a killer... it would be nice to dodge that bullet.

Actually, it would really help to limit the storm surge also, the feed winds are pouring water into the top eastern edge that Irma hit also, Roosevelt Roads is directly in front of the eye, as I type, but if the eye steers right of the island, the feed winds go into the top of the island and Roosevelt Roads gets some relief from the storm surge.
 
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Days

Commentator
Maria's eye is only 10 miles across... if she will steer a little harder north, tonight, and stay offshore, east of Puerto Rico... wow, that would be much better. they will still get a wicked storm surge, but that eyewall is a killer... it would be nice to dodge that bullet.

Actually, it would really help to limit the storm surge also, the feed winds are pouring water into the top eastern edge that Irma hit also, Roosevelt Roads is directly in front of the eye, as I type, but if the eye steers right of the island, the feed winds go into the top of the island and Roosevelt Roads gets some relief from the storm surge.
If the eye stays straight on its present course, it slams square into Roosevelt roads and that would be really bad for storm surge and wind ... this hurricane is at the top of her game right now, now would be a really bad time to get hit by the eye.
 

Jen

Senator
I just tracked the eye and it appears to be headed for the eastern tip of Puerto Rico... straight at Roosevelt Roads. this is going to be really bad.

power = mass x speed

power of hurricane = eyewall volume x sustained windspeed

the more powerful the eyewall, the lower the barometric pressure inside the eye.

So hurricane Allen had the fastest sustained windspeeds (195 mph) but it was not the most powerful hurricane (920 millibars).

the latest advisory on Maria reads 909 millibars; puts her in the top 5 most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record. For comparison, Irma got down to 928 millibars.

infra red satellite of the Caribbean:



look at the perfect swirl of bright white (highest water vapor content) that feeds the pinhole eye. Maria is a perfect picture of power and fury.
That's best case scenario and what I have prayed for. Roosy Roads NAS has been closed for a number of years. It is now used as an airport. I can't tell whether the houses in Navy Housing are still standing or not, but with the tree growth around them they may be empty. That should be an easy to evacuate area. If the hurricane crosses the tip the very large NAS area might protect the towns of Naguabo and Ceiba from a heavy storm surge.

 

Jen

Senator
If the eye stays straight on its present course, it slams square into Roosevelt roads and that would be really bad for storm surge and wind ... this hurricane is at the top of her game right now, now would be a really bad time to get hit by the eye.
No, I think that would be best case scenario. Roosey Roads is not really inhabited since it's used as a public airport now. No more NAS there. And it's a huge base. It may offer a little flood protection for Ceiba, the town just inland from RRoads.

Fajardo, on the other hand is next to the water and floods out easily. I lived in Fajardo and on base while I was there.
 
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