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New study says Yes Russia's attack on the US did help Trump win.

Discussion in 'Latest Political News and Current Events' started by Spamature, Jul 1, 2019.

  1. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    Of course the GOP knows this and it is assuredly the reason they have tirelessly worked to block any efforts to protect America and prevent future Russian attacks on our electoral system.
    They are traitors betraying our country right before our eyes.

    [​IMG]

    Discussion and conclusions

    Here we have (a) examined the timing of the IRA Twitter activity, which suggests a strategic release in parallel with significant political events before the 2016 election and (b) used vector autoregression (VAR) to test if the success of IRA activity on Twitter predicted changes in the 2016 election opinion polls. On a weekly time scale, we find that multiple time series of IRA tweet success robustly predicted increasing opinion polls for one candidate, but not the other. The opinion polls do not predict future success of the IRA tweets. The findings proved robust to many different checks.


    The result, a one percent poll increase for the Republican candidate for every 25,000 weekly re-tweets of IRA messages, raises two questions about the effect: one regarding the magnitude and one regarding its asymmetry.


    Here we have tested prediction, not causality. It seems unlikely that 25,000 re-tweets could influence one percent of the electorate in isolation (Guess, et al., 2019; Allcott, et al., 2019), although this might be more plausible than presumed at first glance, given that only about four percent of viewed tweets result in re-retweets (Lee, et al., 2015), such that 25,000 re-tweets could imply about 500,000 exposures to those messages per week. It is more likely, however, that Twitter is just a subset of a larger disinformation campaign carried out on multiple social media platforms (Issac and Wakabayashi, 2017; Howard, et al., 2018), as well as spread through social contagion (Centola, 2010) and to other parts of the interconnected ‘media ecosystem’ including print, radio and television (Benkler, et al., 2018). In this way IRA disinformation can frame the debate, meaning many more people than those directly exposed can be affected (Jamieson, 2018).


    Any correlation established by an observational study could be spurious. Though our main finding has proved robust and our time series analysis excludes reverse causation, there could still be a third variable driving the relationship between IRA Twitter success and U.S. election opinion polls. We controlled for one of these — the success of Donald Trump’s personal Twitter account — but there are others that are more difficult to measure; including exposure to the U.S domestic media.


    The asymmetrical effect we observed could be because specific groups and media outlets were targeted by the IRA (Jamieson, 2018; Miller, 2019) and those media outlets were particularly susceptible to disinformation (Benkler, et al., 2018), leading to considerably more re-tweets from those targeted groups (Badawy, et al., 2018).


    We use macro-level data to establish a link between exposure to IRA disinformation and changes in U.S. public opinion. However, using aggregated data means we cannot know the extent to which the participants in election polls were exposed to IRA disinformation. This may not matter once social contagion (Centola, 2010) and media ecosystem effects (Benkler, et al., 2018) are taken into consideration. Nonetheless, establishing individual-level causal mechanisms should be a priority (Gerber and Zavisca, 2016; Spaiser, et al., 2017).


    Here we have presented evidence that social media disinformation can measurably change public opinion polls. Though we focused on a particular high-profile example in 2016, social media propaganda is a growing problem affecting voting populations around the world, regardless of affiliation, and ought to be given serious attention in the future. Our study motivates future investigation that seeks to establish the causal mechanisms of disinformation exposure on the opinions and behavior of individuals. These future studies should measure exposure to all media in the media ecosystem, not just social media
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  2. worldlymrb

    worldlymrb Environmental Fascism

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    Sane people agree....Hillary being a horrible candidate helped Trump way more.
     
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  3. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    So horrible she got 3 million more votes than Putin's candidate.
     
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  4. Drumcollie

    Drumcollie Ending Racism with or without Hillary

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    Why did Obama let this happen?

    Was Obama just being flexible?
     
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  5. Drumcollie

    Drumcollie Ending Racism with or without Hillary

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    Is that how it works in your country...We use the electoral college.

    Liberal Translation: Это, как это работает в вашей стране ... Мы пользуемся коллегией выборщиков.
     
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  6. resident_evil

    resident_evil Senator

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    Predicting the intensity at land fall of a hurricane is a more accurate and failed science than the fake science you've linked to. It amazes time and again how the people who worship science are so very, very bad at it.
     
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  7. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    Of course you have no evidence to back up this slur.

    Right ?
     
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  8. The Thinker

    The Thinker Over The Top Abuser

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    Nah.... just a very informed opinion.
     
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  9. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    He didn't know the extent of the attack Trump aided. He tried to warn you Trumpies not to listen to their lies but you would have none of that. Putin had your ears and his racism and anti Americanism was the music you wanted to dance to.
     
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  10. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    Without evidence it's an uniformed opinion.

    Which is just a slur against the researchers because you don't want to believe the facts they've uncovered.
     
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  11. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    If you say that is so then I'll wait while you correct their formulas and post the corrected versions here.
    The link to the study is in the image in the top post.
    Go ahead.
     
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  12. Constitutional Sheepdog

    Constitutional Sheepdog ][][][%er!!!!!!!

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    democrats don't need help looking bad they are their own enemies
     
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  13. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    But you called her a horrible candidate. Yet the horrible candidate got 3 million more votes than your candidate.

    That fact remains and no electoral college changes that fact.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 1, 2019
  14. Constitutional Sheepdog

    Constitutional Sheepdog ][][][%er!!!!!!!

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    no one ever said hillary supporters were smart.
     
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  15. The Thinker

    The Thinker Over The Top Abuser

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    Uh huh.... let's do the math. The Russians supposedly spent $160,000 on ads. Divide that by the $1 billion spent on Hillary's behalf. That comes out to 0.016% of the amount Hillary spent moved the polls 1%.

    You'd have to be a moron to believe such nonsense.

    Try facts and logic before believing stuff because you want to.
     
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  16. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    But apparently Trump needed Russian help to look good.

    At least to the chumps and suckers that fell for their military intelligence operation.

    In fact you were one of them.
     
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  17. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    But a lot of people have said Trump supporters are stupid.
    The Russians bet on that and won.
     
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  18. Constitutional Sheepdog

    Constitutional Sheepdog ][][][%er!!!!!!!

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    Actually voting for the president is possibly the smartest thing anyone could do.
     
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  19. Constitutional Sheepdog

    Constitutional Sheepdog ][][][%er!!!!!!!

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    Dude anything Russia may have done was minuscule compared to what Hillary had done to herself.
     
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  20. Spamature

    Spamature President

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    How much did AQ spend on the 9/11 attack ? Are you going to claim the effectiveness of that attack compared to what we were spending on anti terrorist measures were not just as if not much, much, more lopsided ?

    The fact is that vulnerability among Republicans preconditioned to by right wing media propaganda made the success of their attack much easier. After all the right wing media has spent billions over the years to turn you into the very kinds of chumps and suckers that would fall for Russian propaganda.
     
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