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No, British Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson Has Not 'Drastically Downgraded' His Worst-Case Projection of COVID-19 Deaths

PNWest

America's BEST American: Impartial and Bipartisan


Yesterday one of the shortbusser was posting disinformation about this. Par for the course from the right wing trolls.

From the article:

In other words, it is not true that Ferguson "is presenting drastically downgraded estimates," as The Daily Wire claimed, or that he "just walked back the apocalyptic predictions," as The Federalist asserted. But Ferguson did revise one of his key estimates in a way that suggests a lower case fatality rate (CFR) than his group assumed in their modeling.
 

Bugsy McGurk

President
There are a number of different questions here, such as...

1. What percentage of those infected need hospitalization to survive? The best number is about 15%. Far more than the standard flu.

2. What percentage of those infected will die regardless of hospital care? That number floats but it’s probably about 2%. Far more than with the standard flu.

3. What percentage of those infected and requiring hospitalization will die if the health care system collapses under the incredible strains placed upon it? Hard to say but it’s likely close to the 15% figure of infected people requiring hospitalization to survive. Of course, that never happens with a standard flu - the health care system does not collapse.

So, worst case? Let’s say 100 to 150 million Americans are infected and the health care system collapses because the curve does not get flattened. We’re talking somewhere between 10 and 20 million Americans deaths.

Or, as we hear on Fox Noise and the like, “just like the flu.”
 
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