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Poll: how big will this Coronavirus be (logarithmic scale)?

Which of these epidemics will have a comparable death toll?

  • 2013-2016 Ebola (11475)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1910-1912 Plague in China (34425)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1829-1851 Cholera (103275)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1889-1890 Influenza (929475)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1772 Plague in Persia (2788425)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1545-1548 Paratyphoid in Mexico (8365275)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1918-1920 Influenza (75287475)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Spanish flu and Black Death combined (

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    2

EatTheRich

President
As of today, COVId-19 has killed 3,825 people worldwide as per the Johns Hopkins confirmed case count. Will it stop here, or get bigger?

If it gets 3 times as big, it will have a death toll similar to that of the Ebola epidemic of 2013-2016.

If it gets 3 times bigger than that, it will have a death toll similar to (a bit less than) the 1910-1912 outbreak of plague in China that killed some 40,000.

If it gets 3 times bigger than that, it would have killed about as many as either of the 19th-century cholera pandemics, each of which killed 100,000 or more.

And so on ... how high does it get? Go on the record!
 
Last edited:

EatTheRich

President
As of today, COVId-19 has killed 3,825 people worldwide as per the Johns Hopkins confirmed case count. Will it stop here, or get bigger?

If it gets 3 times as big, it will have a death toll similar to that of the Ebola epidemic of 2013-2016.

If it gets 3 times bigger than that, it will have a death toll similar to (a bit less than) the 1910-1912 outbreak of plague in China that killed some 40,000.

If it gets 3 times bigger than that, it would have killed about as many as either of the 19th-century cholera pandemics, each of which killed 100,000 or more.

And so on ... how high does it get? Go on the record!
If you picked the 1910-1912 plague in China, you’d be the winner ... so far. Coronavirus deaths have already exceeded not only 3 times the number on the date of the original post, but 9 times.

Will it stop there? Will it exceed the number of deaths from the 1829-1851 cholera epidemic (best-case scenario just for the U.S., says Trump and the vast majority of the medical community), or will they get 3 times as high again, or more?

I cast my vote. A lot of people saw this post and didn’t cast theirs. How dangerous is this?
 

Days

Commentator
If you picked the 1910-1912 plague in China, you’d be the winner ... so far. Coronavirus deaths have already exceeded not only 3 times the number on the date of the original post, but 9 times.

Will it stop there? Will it exceed the number of deaths from the 1829-1851 cholera epidemic (best-case scenario just for the U.S., says Trump and the vast majority of the medical community), or will they get 3 times as high again, or more?

I cast my vote. A lot of people saw this post and didn’t cast theirs. How dangerous is this?
How many years out are you talking about? Are you talking about all coronavirus deaths or just the ones that will be associated with COVID19?

If you are looking at this through a microscope, capping it with the virus of 2020, I'll go with 1629-1631 Plague in Italy (309825) ... if you are looking at it through the broad view of mankind succumbing to the stress of a 5G world going forward... whoa, I think that's more like the Spanish flu and Black Death combined.
 

EatTheRich

President
How many years out are you talking about? Are you talking about all coronavirus deaths or just the ones that will be associated with COVID19?

If you are looking at this through a microscope, capping it with the virus of 2020, I'll go with 1629-1631 Plague in Italy (309825) ... if you are looking at it through the broad view of mankind succumbing to the stress of a 5G world going forward... whoa, I think that's more like the Spanish flu and Black Death combined.
Good question, I guess I was thinking 2019-2021.
 

EatTheRich

President
How many years out are you talking about? Are you talking about all coronavirus deaths or just the ones that will be associated with COVID19?

If you are looking at this through a microscope, capping it with the virus of 2020, I'll go with 1629-1631 Plague in Italy (309825) ... if you are looking at it through the broad view of mankind succumbing to the stress of a 5G world going forward... whoa, I think that's more like the Spanish flu and Black Death combined.
Well, looks like you underestimated it. It would take a miraculous reversal of fortune to keep the death toll for the U.S. alone that low. Anyway, any Monday-morning quarterbacks willing to take a bet on one of the few quantities still possible?
 

PhilFish

Administrator
Staff member
I do not think it is going away. therefore i think it will exceed the persian plague listed.

though I dont know of any plague ever so dependent on the actions of one president... it is as though no one can think without his direction.... ;-)
 
I do not think it is going away. therefore i think it will exceed the persian plague listed.

though I dont know of any plague ever so dependent on the actions of one president... it is as though no one can think without his direction.... ;-)
If Biden wins the election, I assure you we will not see posts like the OP from his surrogates EVER again.
 

EatTheRich

President
I do not think it is going away. therefore i think it will exceed the persian plague listed.

though I dont know of any plague ever so dependent on the actions of one president... it is as though no one can think without his direction.... ;-)
Thank you for hazarding a guess. I take it that it is your position that policy and direction from the most powerful person in the world has no outcome on the effects of global disasters?
 

EatTheRich

President
If Biden wins the election, I assure you we will not see posts like the OP from his surrogates EVER again.
As far as I know, I’m the only one with a post like this. So you haven’t seen such a post from one of his surrogates hitherto. Anyway, I have no doubt that after the election it will remain necessary to call people’s attention to the seriousness of the virus you downplayed and will continue to downplay for political reasons.
 
As far as I know, I’m the only one with a post like this. So you haven’t seen such a post from one of his surrogates hitherto. Anyway, I have no doubt that after the election it will remain necessary to call people’s attention to the seriousness of the virus you downplayed and will continue to downplay for political reasons.
Please. If Biden wins, you and the rest of his surrogates will never be heard from again on this subject. It will cease to exist.
 

EatTheRich

President
Please. If Biden wins, you and the rest of his surrogates will never be heard from again on this subject. It will cease to exist.
Even if you and the Democrats switch positions on this (and I don’t think you will because your anti-science position and hatred of reasonable policy transcend your desire to cover up for Trump), I will still be maintaining the same attitude I have.
 
Even if you and the Democrats switch positions on this (and I don’t think you will because your anti-science position and hatred of reasonable policy transcend your desire to cover up for Trump), I will still be maintaining the same attitude I have.
No you won't. You'll continue to do the bidding of the white billionaires who control the DNC.
 

PhilFish

Administrator
Staff member
Thank you for hazarding a guess. I take it that it is your position that policy and direction from the most powerful person in the world has no outcome on the effects of global disasters?
No that is not my position. Thanks for not asking though..... Again. Zzzzzzz
 
Then it DOES make sense to hold Trump to account for his obvious mishandling of the situation and the consequent multiplication of the death toll?
What do you think the death toll should have been? I need to know your baseline to understand the "multiplication" claim you made.
 

EatTheRich

President
What do you think the death toll should have been? I need to know your baseline to understand the "multiplication" claim you made.
Well, as you proudly pointed out, the U.S. was rated the most prepared country to handle a pandemic by a 2019 Johns Hopkins study. It seems with minimally competent leadership, the U.S. would’ve had fewer deaths per capita than the least prepared country, Equatorial Guinea. To do that, the U.S. would have had to have kept the death toll below 21,000.
 

Days

Commentator
Well, as you proudly pointed out, the U.S. was rated the most prepared country to handle a pandemic by a 2019 Johns Hopkins study. It seems with minimally competent leadership, the U.S. would’ve had fewer deaths per capita than the least prepared country, Equatorial Guinea. To do that, the U.S. would have had to have kept the death toll below 21,000.
This political perspective is out of touch with science. Money will not "crush the virus". Nothing stops a virus.

This particular virus spreads real fast and is quite destructive, even in those who survive it. Long term effects are turning out to be a biatch.

When president Trump says, "the cure can not be worse than the disease" ... first of all, it isn't a disease, it is a virus, and secondly, no amount of money being spent is ever going to cure it, the best they can hope for is a vaccination, which still is not a cure.
 

EatTheRich

President
This political perspective is out of touch with science. Money will not "crush the virus". Nothing stops a virus.

This particular virus spreads real fast and is quite destructive, even in those who survive it. Long term effects are turning out to be a biatch.

When president Trump says, "the cure can not be worse than the disease" ... first of all, it isn't a disease, it is a virus, and secondly, no amount of money being spent is ever going to cure it, the best they can hope for is a vaccination, which still is not a cure.
What countries that successfully lowered the death toll did was to interrupt transmission.
 
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