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Wait, what?

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
During March of 2020, there were 4,053 COVID-19 deaths according to Worldometer. That is 1.6 percent of total deaths in March 2019 (total data on March 2020 deaths is still too preliminary to offer a comparison). For context, we could note that total deaths increased by about four thousand from March 2018 to March 2019. So for March, the increase in total deaths is about equal to what we already saw as a pre-COVID increase from March 2018 to March 2019.


So even if the average number of deaths increased in 2020 over 2019, that doesn't "prove" that coronavirus caused it. Seriously, if it ends up increasing the "average" deaths by, say, 1% (as it's a good bet that at least half of these "covid" deaths are people who would have died anyway), is that a justification for throwing 100 million people out of work? That is insane!
 
During March of 2020, there were 4,053 COVID-19 deaths according to Worldometer. That is 1.6 percent of total deaths in March 2019 (total data on March 2020 deaths is still too preliminary to offer a comparison). For context, we could note that total deaths increased by about four thousand from March 2018 to March 2019. So for March, the increase in total deaths is about equal to what we already saw as a pre-COVID increase from March 2018 to March 2019.


So even if the average number of deaths increased in 2020 over 2019, that doesn't "prove" that coronavirus caused it. Seriously, if it ends up increasing the "average" deaths by, say, 1% (as it's a good bet that at least half of these "covid" deaths are people who would have died anyway), is that a justification for throwing 100 million people out of work? That is insane!
You are just taking numbers out of context. 2020 has widespread lockdowns which are preventing deaths.
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
You are just taking numbers out of context. 2020 has widespread lockdowns which are preventing deaths.
The total deaths are well below the models' projections EVEN AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR "LOCKDOWNS." The point of the math is that many of the deaths would have occurred anyway.
 
The total deaths are well below the models' projections EVEN AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR "LOCKDOWNS." The point of the math is that many of the deaths would have occurred anyway.
Yes, the models death projections are decreased by the assumption that the lockdown remain in place till august.
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
Yes, the models death projections are decreased by the assumption that the lockdown remain in place till august.
That is insane - it cannot remain in place until August. The economy will be in depression by then (which of course is the lockdown's purpose, not "saving lives").
 
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