What's going wrong in rural America?

[Arkady]

In the wake of the unrest in Ferguson in late 2014, there was speculation that there'd be a "Ferguson Effect." The idea was that the heightened scrutiny around policing of minority communities would mean urban police would be more reluctant to intervene, resulting in an urban crime wave. Since we don't yet have full-year data for the nation as a whole for 2015, we can't say for sure what the year-on-year trends were following Ferguson. However, the FBI has released the nationwide data for January-June of 2015 (the Ferguson unrest was August 2014), comparing the trends to the same portion of 2014. The data is not in line with the theory, at least when it comes to the most serious violent crimes:

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-januaryjune-2015/tables/table-1

As you can see, for metropolitan counties, the murder rate was down 4.1%, while it was up 10.4% for non-metropolitan counties. The rate of rape was up for both, but up over 13 times as much in non-metro areas. In addition, even within cities, the worst murder rate increase (17%) was for cities of less than 10,000 residents -- the smallest ones. For rape, the worst trend was for cities of 25,000-49,999, while the larger cities did better.

What we would have expected, based on the "Ferguson Effect" theory, was for overall trends of falling murder and rape to have continued in rural areas, while urban ones experienced a crime wave. Yet the trend for murder is the opposite, and for rape the problem seems to be getting worse faster in rural areas. Do people have explanations for this?

 

[marvin martian]

In the wake of the unrest in Ferguson in late 2014, there was speculation that there'd be a "Ferguson Effect." The idea was that heightened scrutiny of policy by minority communities would mean urban police would be more reluctant to intervene, resulting in an urban crime wave. Since we don't yet have full-year data for the nation as a whole for 2015, we can't say for sure what the year-on-year trends were following Ferguson. However, the FBI has released the nationwide data for January-June of 2015 (the Ferguson unrest was August 2014), comparing the trends to the same portion of 2014, and the data is not in line with the theory, at least when it comes to the most serious violent crimes:

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-januaryjune-2015/tables/table-1

As you can see, for metropolitan counties, the murder rate was down 4.1%, while it was up 10.4% for non metropolitan counties. The rate of rape was up for both, but up over 13 times as much in non-metro areas. In addition, even within cities, the worst murder rate increase (17%) was for cities of less than 10,000 residents -- the smallest ones. For rape, the worst trend was for cities of 25,000-49,999, while the larger cities did better.

What we would have expected, based on the "Ferguson Effect" theory was for overall trends of falling murder and rape to have continued in rural areas, while urban ones experienced a crime wave. Yet the trend for murder is the opposite, and for rape the problem seems to be getting worse faster in rural areas. Do people have explanations for this?

I'm not seeing this in my area. Check with @Saladin2, perhaps he can explain it to you.

 

[Arkady]

I'm not seeing this in my area. Check with @Saladin2, perhaps he can explain it to you.

No doubt Saladin has a much smarter contribution to make than you. But if there are any smart conservatives willing to offer some idea, I'm interested.

 

[Saladin2]

I'm not seeing this in my area. Check with @Saladin2, perhaps he can explain it to you.

Shouldn't you be babbling about some BreitBart conspiracy theory?

 

[marvin martian]

Shouldn't you be babbling about some BreitBart conspiracy theory?

Not bad, only one misspelling. Is @Arkady proofreading you?

 

[freyasman]

Shouldn't you be babbling about some BreitBart conspiracy theory?

Shouldn't you be masturbating to worldstar videos of white people getting mob attacked?

 

[Deleted member 21794]

I say it's global warming. Obviously the blazing heat and drought conditions are driving rural people to crime. Clearly we need to increase welfare subsidies to Elon Musk and other rich people before it's too late.

 

[Saladin2]

Not bad, only one misspelling. Is @Arkady proofreading you?

Wow...No conspiracy theory from you paranoid loons?...Did I spell that right?

 

[freyasman]

I say it's global warming. Obviously the blazing heat and drought conditions are driving rural people to crime. Clearly we need to increase welfare subsidies to Elon Musk and other rich people before it's too late.

It takes longer to get a cop or an ambulance out in the sticks. I'm 5 minutes from an ER right now, but some property I'm looking at outside the city will seriously extend response times. I get shot or cut bad here, my odds are really good.... out in the boonies? It gets a lot more iffy...

 

[Saladin2]

Shouldn't you be masturbating to worldstar videos of white people getting mob attacked?

Oh no Mr Tough guy Gun Nut is here...This is way beyond your understanding...Go back to some thread where you can tell everybody how your are going to fight the government...LOL

 

[marvin martian]

No doubt Saladin has a much smarter contribution to make than you. But if there are any smart conservatives willing to offer some idea, I'm interested.

No you aren't.

 

[freyasman]

Oh no Mr Tough guy Gun Nut is here...This is way beyond your understanding...Go back to some thread where you can tell everybody how your are going to fight the government...LOL

I saw some curtains online that would really brighten up your place in your Mom's basement; want me to send you a link?

 

[Saladin2]

I saw some curtains online that would really brighten up your place in your Mom's basement; want me to send you a link?

Yeah so says the guy living in a bunker ...Seriously this isn't the thread for you...I'm just sayin'

 

[freyasman]

Yeah so says the guy living in a bunker ...Seriously this isn't the thread for you...I'm just sayin'

I live in a custom built 3 bedroom home in the Houston Heights, guy.

 

[Arkady]

It takes longer to get a cop or an ambulance out in the sticks.

Yes. That's one big reason people live longer in urban areas than rural ones. But that doesn't help much for explaining divergence of year-on-year trends. Early 2014 rural residents and rural 2015 rural residents were presumably facing similar response time issues.

 

[freyasman]

According to the link, violent crime (The violent crime figures include the offenses of murder, rape (revised definition), rape (legacy definition), robbery, and aggravated assault.) was up +0.1 in metropolitan areas, and down -3.3 in nonmetropolitan areas. I haven't done much more than glance at the chart, but that doesn't seem to be cause for alarm either way to me.

 

[Saladin2]

According to the link, violent crime (The violent crime figures include the offenses of murder, rape (revised definition), rape (legacy definition), robbery, and aggravated assault.) was up +0.1 in metropolitan areas, and down -3.3 in nonmetropolitan areas. I haven't done much more than glance at the chart, but that doesn't seem to be cause for alarm either way to me.

Bravo you commented on the subject at hand , I stand corrected.My take is there has been a serious influx of opiates , heroin,oxycotin and assorted drugs that have infiltrated large areas of rural America.

 

[freyasman]

Bravo you commented on the subject at hand , I stand corrected.My take is there has been a serious influx of opiates , heroin,oxycotin and assorted drugs that have infiltrated large areas of rural America.

There have always been drugs in the sticks, that's nothing new.

 

[freyasman]

Bravo you commented on the subject at hand , I stand corrected.My take is there has been a serious influx of opiates , heroin,oxycotin and assorted drugs that have infiltrated large areas of rural America.

What is the subject? That crime is up in the country and down in the city? Doesn't seem like it to me.

 

[freyasman]

Bravo you commented on the subject at hand , I stand corrected.My take is there has been a serious influx of opiates , heroin,oxycotin and assorted drugs that have infiltrated large areas of rural America.

And speaking of an influx of drugs, I have heard reports that the price of heroin in Baltimore county went down by more than 50% and is still down, after at least one large distributor took advantage of the riots there and stand down of local LE, to import several truckloads of smack unmolested.