Arkady
President
So much for Mexico paying for the wall. Trump has decided, instead, that you, the American consumer, should pay for his pet project, by way of higher prices on goods. A tariff like that works effectively like a national sales tax, only on a particular sub-set of goods. If he goes through with it, there will also almost certainly be retaliatory tariffs by Mexico, so if you work for a US business that exports to them, you'll be hit a second time. It's also a regressive tax, in that Mexican goods tend to be lower end products, meaning the poor will tend to pay higher prices on a greater share of their purchases than the rich do, as a result of the tax (as opposed to slapping such a tariff on somewhere like Switzerland).
I suppose the good news is that in short order it should mostly be made moot by way of trade networks. Mexico can just export to some other country which can act as a straw man for low-tariff trade with the US. That will raise costs for those goods slightly, just because of the added waste of that kind of route, but nothing like 20%.
But, even that silver lining comes with another cloud buried in it. If Trump freaks out about his plan failing, and starts to slap tariffs on other countries that send us goods that have Mexican-sourced parts, it could mean a full-scale trade war. We saw something like that with the infamous Helms-Burton act, which wanted to slap tariffs on third-party goods containing Cuban material (e.g., German chocolate that uses Cuban sugar). Both Republican and Democratic presidents used executive powers to block aspects of Helms-Burton from ever coming into play, because if it did we'd have been in a full-scale trade war with the rest of the developed world, since those kinds of tariffs are disallowed by multiple treaties.
I suppose the good news is that in short order it should mostly be made moot by way of trade networks. Mexico can just export to some other country which can act as a straw man for low-tariff trade with the US. That will raise costs for those goods slightly, just because of the added waste of that kind of route, but nothing like 20%.
But, even that silver lining comes with another cloud buried in it. If Trump freaks out about his plan failing, and starts to slap tariffs on other countries that send us goods that have Mexican-sourced parts, it could mean a full-scale trade war. We saw something like that with the infamous Helms-Burton act, which wanted to slap tariffs on third-party goods containing Cuban material (e.g., German chocolate that uses Cuban sugar). Both Republican and Democratic presidents used executive powers to block aspects of Helms-Burton from ever coming into play, because if it did we'd have been in a full-scale trade war with the rest of the developed world, since those kinds of tariffs are disallowed by multiple treaties.