New Posts
  • Hi there guest! Welcome to PoliticalJack.com. Register for free to join our community?

Brokered Convention

We've all heard about the possibility of a brokered GOP convention and I read an interesting article about that this morning. Here it is:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/2/donald-trump-rivals-alliance-easiest-way-to-stop-g/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

I'm not going to quote from it, read it if you want. What it talks about is a temporary alliance between Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich with the goal being to deny Trump a majority of delegates heading into the convention. The idea is for the GOP to encourage anti-Trump voters to all vote for Kasich in Ohio, Rubio in Florida, and for Cruz in North Carolina because that supposedly would guarantee Trump wouldn't earn a majority of delegates. I have no idea if that would work but it looks bad when a political party is even thinking about asking voters to vote for people they may not want to vote for just to screw their own front runner.

If we do end up with a brokered convention what do you think about that? If you were an establishment insider what would you do? I'm going to pretend right now that I'm one of those insiders and right away I see a big problem. Here's the delegate count as of this morning:

Trump - 319
Cruz - 226
Rubio - 110
Kasich - 25
Carson - 8

The problem isn't just Trump, Trump doesn't have a majority but Trump and Cruz together have just over 79% of the delegates. I don't like Cruz anymore than I like Trump, maybe I like him less than Trump so Rubio is the guy but Rubio only has 110 delegates and isn't projected to do any better than he has so far.

If I decide to try to screw Trump and Cruz I have to ignore almost 80% of the delegates as things stand now. If I succeed in installing Rubio, or Kasich, Ryan, or possibly even Romney from what I'm hearing this morning then I've just pissed off a lot of voters which is only going to make the voter revolt even worse in the long run.

If I decide to try to screw Trump and Cruz and fail then I end up looking even weaker than I do right now which could result in others in the Party looking to depose the current establishment. The assumption seems to be Trump would lose in a brokered convention but I don't think that's true, he could win the nomination even in a brokered convention so if I play that game and lose then I'll lose what little power and influence I have left.

If I'm the power brokers I think I'd cut a deal before the convention. I'd offer to support Trump and call off the attack dogs in return for deciding the VP candidate and possibly a couple of Cabinet appointments.

What would you do?
 

Jen

Trump 2020
Rubio is the establishment man. I liked him okay until he went all Don Rickles and started looking like a fool. I think the GOP establishment is going to give the election to Hillary and we'll all be screwed.
 
Rubio is the establishment man. I liked him okay until he went all Don Rickles and started looking like a fool. I think the GOP establishment is going to give the election to Hillary and we'll all be screwed.
I agree, I think they've chosen suicide.
 

bdtex

Administrator
Staff member
We've all heard about the possibility of a brokered GOP convention and I read an interesting article about that this morning. Here it is:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/2/donald-trump-rivals-alliance-easiest-way-to-stop-g/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

I'm not going to quote from it, read it if you want. What it talks about is a temporary alliance between Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich with the goal being to deny Trump a majority of delegates heading into the convention. The idea is for the GOP to encourage anti-Trump voters to all vote for Kasich in Ohio, Rubio in Florida, and for Cruz in North Carolina because that supposedly would guarantee Trump wouldn't earn a majority of delegates. I have no idea if that would work but it looks bad when a political party is even thinking about asking voters to vote for people they may not want to vote for just to screw their own front runner.

If we do end up with a brokered convention what do you think about that? If you were an establishment insider what would you do? I'm going to pretend right now that I'm one of those insiders and right away I see a big problem. Here's the delegate count as of this morning:

Trump - 319
Cruz - 226
Rubio - 110
Kasich - 25
Carson - 8

The problem isn't just Trump, Trump doesn't have a majority but Trump and Cruz together have just over 79% of the delegates. I don't like Cruz anymore than I like Trump, maybe I like him less than Trump so Rubio is the guy but Rubio only has 110 delegates and isn't projected to do any better than he has so far.

If I decide to try to screw Trump and Cruz I have to ignore almost 80% of the delegates as things stand now. If I succeed in installing Rubio, or Kasich, Ryan, or possibly even Romney from what I'm hearing this morning then I've just pissed off a lot of voters which is only going to make the voter revolt even worse in the long run.

If I decide to try to screw Trump and Cruz and fail then I end up looking even weaker than I do right now which could result in others in the Party looking to depose the current establishment. The assumption seems to be Trump would lose in a brokered convention but I don't think that's true, he could win the nomination even in a brokered convention so if I play that game and lose then I'll lose what little power and influence I have left.

If I'm the power brokers I think I'd cut a deal before the convention. I'd offer to support Trump and call off the attack dogs in return for deciding the VP candidate and possibly a couple of Cabinet appointments.

What would you do?
Pretty soon the GOP calendar moves into a phase where some states are winner-take-all. Also,Florida and Ohio primaries are both on 3/15. A brokered convention is a good headline right now and gives speculators something to speculate about. I don't see it happening. While it's still a 3 or 4 person race,as long as Trump keeps winning states with 35+% of the vote it's his. Within a coupla weeks it's probably gonna be a 2-3 person race anyway. Romney going after Trump today probably bumps Trump up a few points. Smh and lol!

Add: If Rubio loses Florida and Kasich loses Ohio on 3/15,it becomes a 2 person race between Trump and Cruz.
 
Last edited:
Pretty soon the GOP calendar moves into a phase where some states are winner-take-all. Also,Florida and Ohio primaries are both on 3/15. A brokered convention is a good headline right now and gives speculators something to speculate about. I don't see it happening. While it's still a 3 or 4 person race,as long as Trump keeps winning states with 35+% of the vote it's his. Within a coupla weeks it's probably gonna be a 2-3 person race anyway. Romney going after Trump today probably bumps Trump up a few points. Smh and lol!
I'm not sure about a brokered convention either. I don't think the cooperation plan will work and I don't think Rubio is a threat to Trump but Cruz could be.
 
Top