Oh man - i can't hardly wait for tomorrow night. I'm a Splash Brothers fan but realistically when they beat Cavs in last year's final, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving were injured and it was Lebron against the world. Love's been playing his best hoops ever.
So Cavs are healthy and dangerous coming into this one, plus they swept the Hawks while Steph and Company had to make a miraculous comeback to win three in a row and finally take Thunder in 7. So the obvious rest and preparation advantage = Cavs.
Warriors have home court advantage where they were 39-2 this year (which was crazy) = advantage Golden State.
Right now Vegas likes the Warriors by lots but i suspect those odds are somewhat skewed.
As for addressing threats, that's a tough call. Looks like Cavs will put JR Smith on Klay Thompson (an unenviable task). Who will Cleveland put on Curry? I'm betting on Lebron primarily but Steph forces a lot of switches with his quickness and ridiculous ball handling.
Not at all certain who GS puts on James - my bet is a combination of Draymond Green and Curry. But GS doesn't match up well at all with Kevin. Don't think Bogut can hang with him and if he gets in early foul trouble as is his tendency .. could be trouble.
Bo picks the Warriors in 7 - gonna be an epic matchup.
What say Friscus?
I'm pumped beyond belief as well. Let's keep this going throughout the series.
This could be a lengthy post, so get some popcorn.
The obvious advantage the Warriors have in this series is their length and athleticism. Let's look at the Warriors roster:
PG Curry 6'3"
SG Thomson 6'7"
SF Barnes 6'8"
PF Green 6'7"
C Bogut 7'0"
Bench:
Livingston 6'7"
Iguadala 6'6"
Speights 6'10"
Ezeli 6'11"
Now let's look at the Cavs:
PG Irving 6'3"
SG Smith 6'6"
SF James 6'8"
PF Love 6'10"
C Thompson 6'9"
Bench
Frye 6'11"
Dellavedova 6'4"
Shumpert 6'5"
Jefferson 6'7"
On paper it doesn't look as much of an issue as it is when you take into account athleticism and matchups. The key issue about the Warriors length is that it
1. Neutralizes Kyrie and Lebron's ability to penetrate
2. Neutralizes Kevin Love's ability to create and shoot 3's.
Now, if Curry has to D up Irving on a switch, Kyrie can take Steph pretty regularly. However, the Warriors do well in covering for Curry's suspect defense. And while Thompson isn't great on D, he's long enough to at least get a hand in someone's face.
I really think an X-factor for the Cavs is going to be Channing Frye. The guy is shooting the lights out, and is so tall it really doesn't matter who he's guarded by. He's made well over 20 of the last 40 threes he's taken.
Of course, the Cavs are going to need J.R. Smith to be on target, and match some of the 3's Thompson and Curry are bound to make, the same for Kevin Love, even if he might be more tightly guarded by more athletic defenders. Richard Jefferson has been a pleasant surprise.. If he can continue to contribute that would be huge, and Shumpert has never looked the same since his injury last year.
Another issue that us Cavs fans have dealt with all year is Kyrie's habit of slipping back into streetball mode. Don't get me wrong, the guy has a killer crossover, and probably the best second-move on a penetration in the game. However, he often pulls up for the jumper instead of taking the ball to the hole after he completely has them off balance, leaning in the wrong direction. It's as if he wants to drill the jumper to show up the defender, when charging to the hoop could get more fouls called, a quicker bonus, and possibly even 3 point plays. Irving will always shoot, but sometimes he goes too far. We ran into that in the Raptors series, and sure enough, it hurt us as a team. If Irving makes the right basketball play and loses the streetball game, like he did against Atlanta and Detroit, it'll go a long way.
And that brings me to Lebron. He'll undoubtedly be D'd up all series by a mixture of Green and Iquadala, and possibly Barnes. As pretty much all NBA fans know, Lebron has the disadvantage of being such a brick house that he's officiated differently, and doesn't tend to get the fouls that other players do even with the same body positioning and contact. He'll have a tough time getting to the rack against the Warriors, but will certainly be able to draw help, prompting a pass to the wing and hopefully a kick to the corner for an open three. Lebron hasn't been anywhere near efficient from 3-point land, and even his Free throw shooting has been only 62%, which is alarming. His value will be the attention he commands on all plays, and his midrange and inward power jumpers.
While I think the Cavs would have won last year with Kyrie and Love, I also don't think the Warriors were as good of a team last year. They have confidence and are more of a unit now more than ever. I think the Warriors are the deeper, more athletic, better passing, and better shooting team. There's really no reason for my analytic mind to pick the Cavs. Cleveland has better rebounding and post play, as well as better isolation players. I usually try not to drink the kool-aid, but I'm going to say Cavs in 6. I think the Cavs get 1 of 2 in Golden State to start the finals.
And you heard it here first, Channing Freakin' Frye..