LBJ jovially frolics with one of his several presidential dogs in a photo op,
just before announcing he would not seek re-election.
Criticize Biden's “Asleep at the Wheel” administration as much as you want. What matters is that the party is clearly and deliberately moving along, and lining up 2024 alternatives. The GOP? Not so much, once you get beyond DeSantis, who is positioning himself as “Trump Lite”.
In an article by Politico, at least 3 sitting democrat governors are outed as Biden's challengers, for obvious tactics such as creating superpacs and non profits, and engaging agencies for TV campaigns. That “tip of the spear” is Gavin Newson, New Jersey's Phil Murphy, and Pritzker from Illinois. Governors with less overt efforts to muscle in include Michigan's Whitmer, North Carolina's Cooper, Colorado's Polis.
Whew - we're up to 6 already. But we're not done yet.
Stacey Abrams, who still regards herself as having won a “stolen” Georgia gubernatorial election, is of course in the mix. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, if you want a woman, but not a bat shit crazy one. That means you'd have to bypass Kamala Harris too, who is already rallying white house aides to her side. Connecticut has an ambitious senator also called “Murphy”, which could cause confusion during a primary debate against the NJ governor. Cory Booker if one Jersey guy isn't enough.. Amy Klobuchar again. And Pete Buttigieg, who everyone admits has much higher IQ than Kamala Harris but will attract zero black or latino/a/x voters.
And of course, Biden is adamant that he's running again. And to emphasize the point, he's promising to wipe out all student debt, and eliminate the federal gasoline tax too, He clearly wants to address America's most serious problems (sarcasm alert).
I assure everyone that I'm not making fun of these developments. In 2020, having a wide field of contenders challenge an unpopular sitting president who suffers from policy disorientation would have been a good idea. It might have prevented Biden from wandering into the oval office.
The official 2024 presidential campaign probably won't start until the morning of Wednesday November 9th, 2022. The day after the mid-terms. I renew my previous prediction that Biden will be persuaded to “resign due to health reasons”, in order to elevate Kamala Harris's prospects. That's how an attempt to manage succession by back office political professionals could manifest itself. Remember LBJ announcing he would not run again in 1968? That was SUPPOSED to clear the path for Robert F. Kennedy, and a restoration of Camelot. Instead, RFK was assassinated by a middle east terrorist funded by unknown foreign powers. The assassination resulted in Hubert Humphrey getting the nomination in a landslide, and then losing the general election in a landslide to Nixon.
This is not a rationale for preventing Biden from “resigning”. It's not a prediction that anyone will become the target of an assassination. It's historical observation that attempts to interfere with actual voter preferences and processes can have bizarre and unfortunate consequences.
For the record, among the above named potential Democrat candidates, I'm not endorsing anyone. Before I do, I'd like to hear specific policy ideas on inflation, interest rates, Ukraine and Taiwan, supply chain, and energy security, education reform. You know . . the boring stuff that was never seriously discussed in 2020. You too DeSantis and Abbot. Let's stop the bible thumping and immigrant arrest photo ops. Those aren't my issues.