It IS possible for all intents & purposes, the GOP Primaries could be "over"...

[GordonGecko]

in less than two weeks.

IF .....Mitt Romney wins South Carolina.

That would be another Socially Conservative State, a SOUTHERN state and the traditional "must-win" state for those in the back of the pack to get the Nomination. It's the ONLY upcoming primary where Newt stands a really good shot. The LAST place where Rick Perry can salvage himself. And the KEY state for Rick Santorum to prove that Iowa was "not a fluke".

If Romney were to win it (obviously a plurality, splitting the Hard Right three-ways...gaining on "inevitability").....that's the ball game as far as "image" goes, even though not on numbers.

No way that Gingrich, Perry, or Santorum could claim any shot at stopping him after losing one of THE "friendliest" (to their type of Republican) states in the beginning.

Florida would instantly flip to a likely 10 point or better lead for Romney and he'd have good to strong leads in EVERY Super Tuesday state after that.

IS it going to happen? Maybe not....but if it does. It's a BIG boost for Romney, because he can then totally ABANDON trying to pander to the Hard Right EARLY and start his General Election campaign and run to the Center.


CorruptB?....you agree?

 

[Corruptbuddha]

I do.

He'll seal the deal, as it were, in either SC or Fla.

Say it loud and say it proud: President Mitt Romney!

 

[GordonGecko]

I do.

He'll seal the deal, as it were, in either SC or Fla.

Say it loud and say it proud: President Mitt Romney!

Won't say "He will" (declarative)....just saying "He could". Romney wins South Carolina...that's the ballgame. No way Newt or Perry could say they still have a reasonable shot. It's "Santorum-friendly" ...both Religious Right and would buy his "working man/blue collar" schtick...so if he loses it, he's got nothing else to cling to.

Will it happen?...I doubt it. It would require a really strong 3-way split between Newt, Perry, and Santorum and enough moderate South Carolina Republicans who can stomach voting for a "damn Yankee Mormon who created Romneycare".

But with Gingrich seeming to implode....Perry's "I'm out, no wait, I'm going on. Oops!" "hints"....and the weakness of Santorum on money and ability to campaign in SC.....it's possible.

 

[Corruptbuddha]

That's why I added Fla.

Lot's of moderates in Fla.

 

[GordonGecko]

That's why I added Fla.

Lot's of moderates in Fla.

Unless Perry or Santorum win South Carolina and get really energized...or Newt wins it and utterly swamps Romney and the rest....I think Florida is a Romney state. It's why Guiliani went down there in 2008 and skipped the first three...it's "moderate-friendly".

Newt could compete there....but on his current glide-slope to self-destruction it's not likely he'll make it that long.

90% chance?.....Florida is the "it's all but over now" victory for Romney. Super Tuesday seals the deal and slams the coffin-lid shut on the anti-Mitts.