Just to bore you with my theory:I despise the "Michigan Militia". Misguided, brain-dead angry and impotent little freaks that need guns to fill the void that goes along with cowardice and lack of character.
No. My point was that if it was a CIA-Mafia-Cuban plot, it would have been so complex and so many people would have been involved that there would be no way it would not have been revealed by now. The only thing that does make sense is the unpredictable and unforeseen lunatic.
Oswald wanted to defect to Cuba (the PBS documentary says as much). To increase his bond fides with Cuba. He tells them at the embassy that he will kill JFK. The guys at the Cuban embassy he visited in Mexico City told him to "knock himself out". They don't get official clearance for it from Havana but they offer him safe passage to Cuba if he does.
For Cuba, there is all upside.
- If LHO goes through with it...the guy who authorized invasion of their country is killed.
- If he doesn't go through with it...no harm no foul.
- If Oswald is captured and squawks about Cuba being in on it; the only people who know anything about it are in an embassy in Mexico--nobody in Havanna.
- If Oswald kills JFK and is killed...double bonus.
My theory involves three people. Oswald, an official at the Cuban embassy, and probably an operative who met with him (say...at a darkened theater in Dallas). The same number of guys involved in OKC.
But...as you said the simplest scenarios are probably the easiest. Mine's pretty simple.