imreallyperplexed
Council Member
I was struck by the difference between Romney's "victory" speech and Paul's and Huntsman's "victory" speeches in New Hampshire tonight with regard to U.S. military and foreign policy. Romney (along with Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum) is a Republican Hawk who seems to want to return to the old Bush/Cheney foreign policy. Paul and Huntsman are Republican doves who have clearly broken with the Bush/Cheney foreign policy. I think that this is a more important issue than many seem to - particularly for younger voters. However, I also think that it is more important to independents than many think. (I know that Cicero and Sodak call themselves independents and are pretty clearly hawks on the military and foreign policy but I think that they are less typical than they seem to think that they are.) Obama is too hawkish for many of these folks.
It seems to me that if the Republican hawks are going to tack to the right of Obama on military and foreign policy (as I think that they are), I think that they are going to have a very tough time with the young and with many independents. (If Paul stays in the race and gets 20% to 25% of the delegates, it could be a real problem for the Romney and the Republican establishment.) I think that the social issues are breaking against them as well. If the economic recovery begins to pick up, any of the socially conservative Republican hawk candidates - Romney, Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum - are probably going to be weaker than expected. And none of them are particularly good campaigners IMHO.
But there is still a long way to go and lots can happen over the next six months. It will be interesting to watch.
It seems to me that if the Republican hawks are going to tack to the right of Obama on military and foreign policy (as I think that they are), I think that they are going to have a very tough time with the young and with many independents. (If Paul stays in the race and gets 20% to 25% of the delegates, it could be a real problem for the Romney and the Republican establishment.) I think that the social issues are breaking against them as well. If the economic recovery begins to pick up, any of the socially conservative Republican hawk candidates - Romney, Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum - are probably going to be weaker than expected. And none of them are particularly good campaigners IMHO.
But there is still a long way to go and lots can happen over the next six months. It will be interesting to watch.