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So anyone willing to predict how this all ends...

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
I think it will be very difficult for the governments to back off of their authoritarian efforts to contain the Wuhan Virus. Who will be the first to suggest easing up and having a resurgence of the disease blow up in their face? This is precisely the kind of government ineptitude, like FDR's disastrous agenda that prolonged the Great Depression because he couldn't (or wouldn't) admit that his errors were causing the recovery to be delayed, that turns a bad situation into an epic mess? What do you all think - does government "got this" and all will work out well in a few weeks? Or will this drag on month after month after month, doing irreparable damage to the economy (and our social construct), and result in another Great Depression level economic downturn?
 
I think it will be very difficult for the governments to back off of their authoritarian efforts to contain the Wuhan Virus. Who will be the first to suggest easing up and having a resurgence of the disease blow up in their face? This is precisely the kind of government ineptitude, like FDR's disastrous agenda that prolonged the Great Depression because he couldn't (or wouldn't) admit that his errors were causing the recovery to be delayed, that turns a bad situation into an epic mess? What do you all think - does government "got this" and all will work out well in a few weeks? Or will this drag on month after month after month, doing irreparable damage to the economy (and our social construct), and result in another Great Depression level economic downturn?
The entire population will be infected in less than 2 months and millions will die. It's going to burn very hot and very fast.
 
What do you all think - does government "got this" and all will work out well in a few weeks? Or will this drag on month after month after month, doing irreparable damage to the economy (and our social construct), and result in another Great Depression level economic downturn?
The closest historical analogy to the current pandemic happened over a century ago. The so-called "Spanish flu" came in two waves, and the second had far worse effects thanks largely to governmental inaction to the first.

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/spanish-influenzas-final-lesson/

"But Spanish Influenza’s final lesson remains unlearned by many people.

"The pandemic had two phases, divided by a singular mutation that altered the course of history.

"In the first months of the outbreak, it’s caliber was largely the same as the common flu. In the summer of 1918, it infected nearly 50% of the British troops fighting in Europe, and almost 60% of their French comrades.

"But the symptoms were relatively mild, and the survival rate was extremely high. Its symptoms included chills, a slight fever and cough. Typically, recovery occurred within a few days.

"It’s the second wave, that starting in the fall of 1918, is famous for killing between 20-50 million people. In the month of October alone, nearly 200,000 Americans died.

"The symptoms of the mutation were far crueler, as victims usually perished within a few days. Their skin would turn a dark blue, caused by slow and painful suffocation as the lungs would fill with liquid."

Hopefully, increased testing will tell us how many Americans are infected and that will provide a rough timeline for a return to "normal." I'm hearing a minimum of two months?
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
For what it's worth, Governor Cuomo is currently predicting 4-9 months before this pandemic runs its course.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news
I certainly hope he's wrong. I don't see how this can go on that long. If we don't get people back to work in the next few weeks, I would think it will be impossible to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression. That would all but assure that Trump will lose the election (and Republicans control of the Senate). You don't suppose that factors into his "prediction," do you?
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
The closest historical analogy to the current pandemic happened over a century ago. The so-called "Spanish flu" came in two waves, and the second had far worse effects thanks largely to governmental inaction to the first.

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/spanish-influenzas-final-lesson/

"But Spanish Influenza’s final lesson remains unlearned by many people.

"The pandemic had two phases, divided by a singular mutation that altered the course of history.

"In the first months of the outbreak, it’s caliber was largely the same as the common flu. In the summer of 1918, it infected nearly 50% of the British troops fighting in Europe, and almost 60% of their French comrades.

"But the symptoms were relatively mild, and the survival rate was extremely high. Its symptoms included chills, a slight fever and cough. Typically, recovery occurred within a few days.

"It’s the second wave, that starting in the fall of 1918, is famous for killing between 20-50 million people. In the month of October alone, nearly 200,000 Americans died.

"The symptoms of the mutation were far crueler, as victims usually perished within a few days. Their skin would turn a dark blue, caused by slow and painful suffocation as the lungs would fill with liquid."

Hopefully, increased testing will tell us how many Americans are infected and that will provide a rough timeline for a return to "normal." I'm hearing a minimum of two months?
Yes, if we can test everyone who has symptoms, using this new 45 minute results test, then we could concentrate on keeping those infected away from others and let the rest of us without the infection get back to normal.
 
I certainly hope he's wrong. I don't see how this can go on that long. If we don't get people back to work in the next few weeks, I would think it will be impossible to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression. That would all but assure that Trump will lose the election (and Republicans control of the Senate). You don't suppose that factors into his "prediction," do you?
The population is going to shrink in 2020, so it's reasonable to expect GDP to shrink in turn.
Trump gambled his political fortunes on the economy and lost.
 
I certainly hope he's wrong. I don't see how this can go on that long. If we don't get people back to work in the next few weeks, I would think it will be impossible to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression. That would all but assure that Trump will lose the election (and Republicans control of the Senate). You don't suppose that factors into his "prediction," do you?
I wouldn't be surprised if Cuomo is pondering a 2024 or 2028 POTUS run, or even 2020 if Biden's dementia becomes impossible to hide before the convention.

Perhaps this crises will force a reevaluation of "radical" plans like a Guaranteed Annual Income and Medicare for All?

Hopefully, we will see more than 50% of eligible voters cast a ballot next November.
 
I think it will be very difficult for the governments to back off of their authoritarian efforts to contain the Wuhan Virus. Who will be the first to suggest easing up and having a resurgence of the disease blow up in their face? This is precisely the kind of government ineptitude, like FDR's disastrous agenda that prolonged the Great Depression because he couldn't (or wouldn't) admit that his errors were causing the recovery to be delayed, that turns a bad situation into an epic mess? What do you all think - does government "got this" and all will work out well in a few weeks? Or will this drag on month after month after month, doing irreparable damage to the economy (and our social construct), and result in another Great Depression level economic downturn?
Either everybody is forced by law to wear surgical masks in public or many will die and we will lose our republic because of lawlessness or governmental oppression.
 

Raoul_Luke

I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
I wouldn't be surprised if Cuomo is pondering a 2024 or 2028 POTUS run, or even 2020 if Biden's dementia becomes impossible to hide before the convention.

Perhaps this crises will force a reevaluation of "radical" plans like a Guaranteed Annual Income and Medicare for All?

Hopefully, we will see more than 50% of eligible voters cast a ballot next November.
Yes, because exactly what we need is a return to FDR style welfare state and government control of the economy so we can have Great Depression 2.0.
 

Dawg

President
Supporting Member
The entire population will be infected in less than 2 months and millions will die. It's going to burn very hot and very fast.
More of your day dreams of night things and it shall be served back to you when your day dreams become nightmares
 

Bernard_Fokke

Captain Fokke
Supporting Member
I think it will be very difficult for the governments to back off of their authoritarian efforts to contain the Wuhan Virus. Who will be the first to suggest easing up and having a resurgence of the disease blow up in their face? This is precisely the kind of government ineptitude, like FDR's disastrous agenda that prolonged the Great Depression because he couldn't (or wouldn't) admit that his errors were causing the recovery to be delayed, that turns a bad situation into an epic mess? What do you all think - does government "got this" and all will work out well in a few weeks? Or will this drag on month after month after month, doing irreparable damage to the economy (and our social construct), and result in another Great Depression level economic downturn?
In two words... Very Badly, the entire world has been caught unawares and lacking and is playing catch up, and catch up is a long hard race.
The butcher's bill will be ugly and I don't think we've seen the worst or all the effects of the Wuhan aka Chinese virus.

Hang on to your hat as when people and countries get desperate things will get interesting.
 

EatTheRich

President
I think it will be very difficult for the governments to back off of their authoritarian efforts to contain the Wuhan Virus. Who will be the first to suggest easing up and having a resurgence of the disease blow up in their face? This is precisely the kind of government ineptitude, like FDR's disastrous agenda that prolonged the Great Depression because he couldn't (or wouldn't) admit that his errors were causing the recovery to be delayed, that turns a bad situation into an epic mess? What do you all think - does government "got this" and all will work out well in a few weeks? Or will this drag on month after month after month, doing irreparable damage to the economy (and our social construct), and result in another Great Depression level economic downturn?
China is already loosening restrictions. Of course they have very powerful unions which can organize resistance to the government.
 

RickWA

Snagglesooth
China is already loosening restrictions. Of course they have very powerful unions which can organize resistance to the government.
Stop, dude - my ribs are killing me. China’s “unions” are an appendage of the state. They are state agencies, grouped by discipline and function. I’ve contracted with them literally DOZENS of times. Their unions are, officially, the government.
 

EatTheRich

President
I certainly hope he's wrong. I don't see how this can go on that long. If we don't get people back to work in the next few weeks, I would think it will be impossible to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression. That would all but assure that Trump will lose the election (and Republicans control of the Senate). You don't suppose that factors into his "prediction," do you?
The conditions for a Depression would be there with or without this virus and the attendant business shutdown. Inflationary measures like racking up debt and printing money to throw at businesses will only keep commerce alive for so long when production is fundamentally unprofitable. If anything, the economy should get a little boost from the basic depression condition it’s been in since 2007 as businesses make up for artificially lowered production due to the pandemic.
 
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