Raoul_Luke
I feel a bit lightheaded. Maybe you should drive.
As I pointed out on the jobs report thread, much of the "gain" was likely due to the PPP "forgivable" loans being processed and businesses "hiring back" workers so they can get the free money even though they had no (actual) work for them. So imagine my surprise (not really) when I saw this from the bowels of the BLS report:
... there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue.
If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis).
www.zerohedge.com
This in addition to the new business birth/death model adding 325,000 "new jobs." Well we know that is bullshit. It is exceedingly unlikely that anyone opened a new business in May.
So the PPP free money put people "back to work" and it remains to be seen if that continues beyond the eight week window businesses have to use the money (pr lose it). Certainly the jury is still out on the "recovery" and Trump was perhaps unwise to declare "mission accomplished." This could come back to bite him in the ass big time. Or maybe the whole "free money" thing works out and the economy develops a recovery that will sustain the jobs. We'll have to wait and see about that but I am not optimistic. I still believe a lot of the businesses that closed will not reopen. Good luck Mr. President...
... there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue.
If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis).
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
This in addition to the new business birth/death model adding 325,000 "new jobs." Well we know that is bullshit. It is exceedingly unlikely that anyone opened a new business in May.
So the PPP free money put people "back to work" and it remains to be seen if that continues beyond the eight week window businesses have to use the money (pr lose it). Certainly the jury is still out on the "recovery" and Trump was perhaps unwise to declare "mission accomplished." This could come back to bite him in the ass big time. Or maybe the whole "free money" thing works out and the economy develops a recovery that will sustain the jobs. We'll have to wait and see about that but I am not optimistic. I still believe a lot of the businesses that closed will not reopen. Good luck Mr. President...
