What if Mitt comes in 2nd or worse, third

[Minotaur]

Put your anger or leanings or political mantra on Obama away for these questions which are more about the chess game of political primaries. Keep in mind that iowa does not pick Presidents well but they may impact in terms of identifying the top runners.

So here are your questions:

If the evangilical pressure of the republicans in Iowa actually push Rick Santorum to a win, what are his prospects from the religious right in following states?

Second question: If you are a republican would you accept him early or hold back in hopes it was another Iowa Anomaly?

Third: Are the republicans better off with Rick Santorum than Ron Paul?

Forth: Do you hope Mitt does or does not win in Iowa?

Last: In the end what candidate do you think benefits most from a win here in Iowa?

 

[BRU]

I don't think he'll do well in other states.

I would hold back

Cons would be better off with Santrorum vs Paul

I hope Mitt wins Iowa (and he will)

Mitt benefits more.

 

[StanH]

Sanitarium doesn't have a chance. Mitt's already well-positioned in New Hampshire, and I just don't see Sanitarium gaining much ground there. He's a flash in the pan and will go away soon enough.

Sanitarium or Paul? Neither would win against Obama, so a moot point in my opinion

Put your anger or leanings or political mantra on Obama away for these questions which are more about the chess game of political primaries. Keep in mind that iowa does not pick Presidents well but they may impact in terms of identifying the top runners.

So here are your questions:

If the evangilical pressure of the republicans in Iowa actually push Rick Santorum to a win, what are his prospects from the religious right in following states?

Second question: If you are a republican would you accept him early or hold back in hopes it was another Iowa Anomaly?

Third: Are the republicans better off with Rick Santorum than Ron Paul?

Forth: Do you hope Mitt does or does not win in Iowa?

Last: In the end what candidate do you think benefits most from a win here in Iowa?

 

[Dawg]

I detest Test

 

[Minotaur]

I detest Test

Ha! You won't be graded! Just interesting to see perspectives.

 

[fairsheet]

I think it's in Mitt's interest to make his head-to-head contest with Obama, as short and compressed as possible. Therefore, the longer he draw the primaries out before he's declared the official "winner", the better off he'll be.

Some may see it the opposite of the way I do. They'll note that in order to win in the general, Mitt will need as much time as possible to tack his way back towards the center. But frankly, I think Mitt's better off not having to define himself at all, rather than trying to define himself towards the right or the middle.

 

[Minotaur]

I don't think he'll do well in other states.

I would hold back

Cons would be better off with Santrorum vs Paul

I hope Mitt wins Iowa (and he will)

Mitt benefits more.

Kind of agree on most but I do think Mitt can come out 1st or 2nd and still benefit so I kind of feel Santorum may benefit the most in terms of putting him in the race a little stronger. Paul would be a real shocker if he won and I think most states would ignore that kind of result.

Personally I think you would be wise to hold back as this first state is just the first state. Unless Mitt comes in 3rd he is in it.

 

[Dawg]

well, if no grade, I'll play=>:

Don't know much bout those religious folks or what they may or may not do.

Hold Back

How does anyone know now

ABBO

Well, the one with the most votes gets the first apple

:sleep:

 

[Lukey]

No biggie:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/02/us-usa-campaign-newhampshire-polls-idUSTRE8010U520120102

 

[Minotaur]

No biggie:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/02/us-usa-campaign-newhampshire-polls-idUSTRE8010U520120102

He would take that state but 1st or 2nd in Iowa is unlikely to matter in other states. If you think about it, even coming in 3rd may not matter if he jumps into a landslide win in NH. Did you see who was in 3rd there? None other than Jon Huntsman. Interesting?

 

[fairsheet]

Mitt's a natural for the NH electorate. It'll be a bad sign for Mitt, if he doesn't run away with NH. Iowa on the other hand? There's a case to be made that Mitt might WANT to lose Iowa.

 

[GordonGecko]

If Santorum wins, Iowa will come off again as "irrelevant"...as they did when they picked Huckabee last time.

If RON PAUL wins, the RNC will make an overt push to end the Iowa Caucus and tell Fox News to tell its audience to support it.

Romney is the annointed one....only a 5th or 6th place showing could hurt him. Anything else can be easily dismissed by him and the RNC Big Wigs.

 

[GordonGecko]

Mitt's a natural for the NH electorate. It'll be a bad sign for Mitt, if he doesn't run away with NH. Iowa on the other hand? There's a case to be made that Mitt might WANT to lose Iowa.

If Mitt loses New Hampshire...after holding double-digit, even 20+ leads there for months....it's a mortal wound. The RNC would then panic...knowing it has no electable candidate left.

 

[Minotaur]

I think it's in Mitt's interest to make his head-to-head contest with Obama, as short and compressed as possible. Therefore, the longer he draw the primaries out before he's declared the official "winner", the better off he'll be.

Some may see it the opposite of the way I do. They'll note that in order to win in the general, Mitt will need as much time as possible to tack his way back towards the center. But frankly, I think Mitt's better off not having to define himself at all, rather than trying to define himself towards the right or the middle.

The longer Mitt has to debate the other candidates the tougher the pressure on him to make the mistake of too fully trying to prove he is a conservative republican. He can become vulnerable by his own contradictory words if forced to do that..

 

[Minotaur]

If Santorum wins, Iowa will come off again as "irrelevant"...as they did when they picked Huckabee last time.

If RON PAUL wins, the RNC will make an overt push to end the Iowa Caucus and tell Fox News to tell its audience to support it.

Romney is the annointed one....only a 5th or 6th place showing could hurt him. Anything else can be easily dismissed by him and the RNC Big Wigs.

3rd place is so unlikely for Mitt that it will hurt him but not fatally if he can get the promised votes in NH by any great number. Not sure Mitt has a lock yet. The most interesting one to watch for me at this stage is Santorum. He could be a headache for Mitt if he wins in the first playoff even if it is just Iowa. I'd be watching how evangelical's in following states respond if those in Iowa succeed in pushing Rick to the top.

 

[Minotaur]

Sanitarium doesn't have a chance. Mitt's already well-positioned in New Hampshire, and I just don't see Sanitarium gaining much ground there. He's a flash in the pan and will go away soon enough.

Sanitarium or Paul? Neither would win against Obama, so a moot point in my opinion

I probably would not count Santorum out but agree about Paul. For Paul even a landslide win would not help him.

 

[Minotaur]

well, if no grade, I'll play=>:

Don't know much bout those religious folks or what they may or may not do.

Hold Back

How does anyone know now

ABBO

Well, the one with the most votes gets the first apple

:sleep:

We won't know until we know. ;-) Evangelical's pushing Santorum to win could impact oddly in the states that follow. It could draw out the selection process if there is a strong block offsetting Mitt. Could be an issue or not.

 

[GordonGecko]

3rd place is so unlikely for Mitt that it will hurt him but not fatally if he can get the promised votes in NH by any great number. Not sure Mitt has a lock yet. The most interesting one to watch for me at this stage is Santorum. He could be a headache for Mitt if he wins in the first playoff even if it is just Iowa. I'd be watching how evangelical's in following states respond if those in Iowa succeed in pushing Rick to the top.

Here's the Mitt Victory Scenario-

1. Gets 2nd or better in Iowa. Letting Santorum knock down Newt as the "anti-Mitt"

2. Wins NH decisively. If Ron Paul or Santorum is 2nd...it's gravy and hurts Newt again.

3. Newt goes into SC weak, if ahead. Wins it and bumps Santorum back down. Perry has a good showing and HE is the "anti-Mitt" who contends with Gingrich.

4. Perry resurgence going into Florida and he and Newt battle it out....Romney wins FL on a plurality wins.

Then it's state-by-state, same pattern as Mitt picks up wins or near-wins and the delegate count racks up. By the time the Hard Right have ONE "anti-Mitt"?....it's too late.

 

[Corruptbuddha]

He won't.

Mitt #1, Paul #2, Santorum #3 and Newt a distant 4th.

For Mitt, it'll solidify his prominence as the 'presumed' nominee.

The rest, it really doesn't matter.

A short lived reprieve from 'suspending' their campaigns?

 

[Lukey]

He would take that state but 1st or 2nd in Iowa is unlikely to matter in other states. If you think about it, even coming in 3rd may not matter if he jumps into a landslide win in NH. Did you see who was in 3rd there? None other than Jon Huntsman. Interesting?

Huntsman would make a fine President.