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RomneyCare: Somebody died today

A young man died today. He won a Pulitzer prize for his work at the Wall Street Journal. I didn't read his stuff when it mattered but neither did you. The internet is killing the lie.


March 2, 2010
Back to the Obamacare future: The Massachusetts 'model' moves to price controls

By Joseph Rago

Natural experiments are rare in politics, but few are as instructive as the prototype for ObamaCare that Massachusetts set in motion in 2006. The bills for "universal coverage" are now coming due, and it appears the state political class is prepared to do lasting damage to one of America's top-flight health-care systems.

Last month, Democratic Governor Deval Patrick landed a neutron bomb, proposing hard price controls across almost all Massachusetts health care. State regulators already have the power to cap insurance premiums, which Mr. Patrick is activating. He also filed a bill that would give state regulators the power to review the rates of hospitals, physician groups and some specialty providers. Those that are deemed too high "shall be presumptively disapproved."

Mr. Patrick ad-libbed that he had "a whole bunch of pals here who are in the health-care field, and I saw the color drain out of their faces." Little wonder. The administered prices of Medicare and Medicaid already shift costs to private patients while below-cost reimbursement creates balance-sheet havoc among providers. Now the governor wants to import these distortions to save the state's heavily subsidized insurance program as costs explode.

It doesn't even count as an irony that former Governor Mitt Romney (like President Obama) sold this plan as a way to control spending. As with all new entitlements, the rolling cost crisis began almost immediately. For fiscal 2010 taxpayer costs are $47 million over budget, in part due to the recession, and while the $913 million Mr. Patrick requested for 2011 is a 5% increase over 2010, spending has grown on average 6.7% per year.

Meanwhile, average Massachusetts insurance premiums are now the highest in the nation. Since 2006, they've climbed at an annual rate of 30% in the individual market. Small business costs have increased by 5.8%. Per capita health spending in Massachusetts is now 27% higher than the national average, and 15% higher even after adjusting for local wages and academic research grants. The growth rate is faster too.

Those data come from granular studies about the Massachusetts health markets published recently by the state. Not that anyone on Beacon Hill seems to have to read them, judging by their policy proposals. Besides Mr. Patrick's latest inspiration, last year a blue-ribbon commission endorsed a "global budget"—i.e., an arbitrary government limit on medical spending, with politics shaping what gets covered and what doesn't.

As in Washington, the political class and providers blame insurers, but a better culprit is the state's insurance regulation. Incredibly, the average "medical loss ratio" in Massachusetts for individual policies is 112%—that is, insurers pay $1.12 in benefits for every $1 in premiums.

This is the direct result of forcing insurers to charge everyone more or less the same rate regardless of age or health status, which makes it rational for people to wait to enroll until they need expensive coverage. It is also the result of the state's decision to merge the individual and small-group insurance markets, which transfers individual costs onto small businesses. Mr. Patrick actually justified his plan by citing small-business costs.

Another reason costs are so high is that state regulations have mandated that insurance coverage be far richer than the rest of the country. The average insurance deductible is 28% lower than the U.S. average, and the benefits are more generous with less cost-sharing. Patients are thus insensitive to the cost of care.

The insurance industry points the finger back at providers, given that over the entire Massachusetts market they usually spend 88 cents of every premium dollar on claims. But the Bay State medical system isn't wasteful by any of the fashionable measures. The Dartmouth Atlas that measures regional variation in the supposed "overuse" of care ranks the state near the U.S. middle.

Though some large hospital systems, especially in Boston, have the market power to drive prices higher, the state's own reports mainly show that the dominant reason health costs are rising is medical progress and technological innovation. Massachusetts health care, with its abundance of academic medical centers and high-quality specialists, is the envy of the world.

This is the true target of Mr. Patrick's price controls: The goal is to engineer a cheaper system through brute force so government can pay for health care for all. What inevitably suffers is the quality of care for individual patients. Thirty states imposed hospital rate setting in the 1970s and 1980s. Except for Maryland, every one of them eventually eliminated it—including Massachusetts, in 1991—partly because it didn't control costs.

And partly because it killed people. A 1988 study in the Journal of New England Medicine found that the states with the most stringent rate-setting had mortality rates 6% to 10% higher than those that didn't.

All of this is merely a preview of what the entire country will face if Democrats succeed with their plan to pound ObamaCare into law in anything like its current form. Massachusetts is teaching the country a valuable lesson in how not to reform health care, if only anyone would pay attention.

© The Wall Street Journal

March 20, 2010

http://www.pulitzer.org/winners/joseph-rago
 
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Hey @Arkady this your model done in Massachusetts as exposed by a Pullitzer Prize winner in 2010.

How is your Romneycare treating you these days? Did you guys dump it like a bad habit gone bad and take on Obamacare to mooch more money?
 
How is your Romneycare treating you these days?
Quite well. A study in the Annals of Internal Medicine dug into the impact of Romneycare, by comparing mortality rates in Massachusetts, following implementation, to a matched set of counties outside Massachusetts over the same period (basically, the Frankenstein approach of patching together a control group against which to compare Massachusetts, from a collection of counties in other states that corresponded to those in Massachusetts in their economics and demographics). It turns out, Romneycare saved a whole lot of lives:

http://annals.org/aim/article/18670...s-health-care-reform-quasi-experimental-study

Basically, it prevents about 8.2 deaths per 100,000 adults, relative to not having implemented it. Multiplied against the state's population, that's about 560 lives saved per year, or a little over 6,000 since implementation. So you can think of it in terms of preventing two 9/11-magnitude terrorist attacks, in terms of how many lives it saved.
 
Not what fiscally minded say.
Fiscally, more socialized systems move more costs inside the government rather than outside. So, it makes it harder to balance the budget without raising taxes. But, since you're pulling some of the costs away from private hands, you can raise taxes without a net increase in burden. It's only a fiscal issue if you don't raised taxes to accommodate that cost being shifted to government.

Using Kaiser figures, when Romneycare passed, in 2006, Massachusetts spent $8,056 per capita on healthcare, versus $10,559 in 2014 (most recent year they list on record). In the same period, the nation as a whole went from $6,048 to $8,045. So, Massachusetts rose 31.1%, versus 33.0% nationally. As such, the best guess is our healthcare spending per capita would have risen a bit faster than it did if not for Romneycare. Basically, if we'd followed the national price increase trend, then by 2014 we'd have been spending about $155 more, per capita, on healthcare than we actually did.

Thus, it's looking like Romneycare has saved about 6000 lives in this state, total, while saving the us something in the ballpark of $850 per person, versus how much we'd have spent if we hadn't had slower spending growth than other states. Sounds like a great deal to me. How about you?

http://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/health-spending-per-capita/?activeTab=graph&currentTimeframe=0&startTimeframe=23&selectedRows={"states":{"massachusetts":{}},"wrapups":{"united-states":{}}}&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}
 
Fiscally, more socialized systems move more costs inside the government rather than outside. So, it makes it harder to balance the budget without raising taxes. But, since you're pulling some of the costs away from private hands, you can raise taxes without a net increase in burden. It's only a fiscal issue if you don't raised taxes to accommodate that cost being shifted to government.

Using Kaiser figures, when Romneycare passed, in 2006, Massachusetts spent $8,056 per capita on healthcare, versus $10,559 in 2014 (most recent year they list on record). In the same period, the nation as a whole went from $6,048 to $8,045. So, Massachusetts rose 31.1%, versus 33.0% nationally. As such, the best guess is our healthcare spending per capita would have risen a bit faster than it did if not for Romneycare. Basically, if we'd followed the national price increase trend, then by 2014 we'd have been spending about $155 more, per capita, on healthcare than we actually did.

Thus, it's looking like Romneycare has saved about 6000 lives in this state, total, while saving the us something in the ballpark of $850 per person, versus how much we'd have spent if we hadn't had slower spending growth than other states. Sounds like a great deal to me. How about you?

http://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/health-spending-per-capita/?activeTab=graph&currentTimeframe=0&startTimeframe=23&selectedRows={"states":{"massachusetts":{}},"wrapups":{"united-states":{}}}&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}

1) It doesn't cost government money. It costs tax payers.

2) How much does it cost society for somebody to die just before they retire versus living well after? Are you sure those alleged 6,000 saved lives are a fiscal savings? The tax payers pay to save their lives and then pays years of benefits. Something to consider in your money only analysis.
 
1) It doesn't cost government money. It costs tax payers.

It costs the government money which the taxpayers ultimately reimburse.

2) How much does it cost society for somebody to die just before they retire versus living well after? Are you sure those alleged 6,000 saved lives are a fiscal savings?

I don't know how we'd measure the contribution versus burden of someone living past retirement, from the society-wide perspective. What's the wisdom of the elderly worth? How do we account for the value of grandparents to their grand-kids' development? Etc. So, I have no idea how we'd approach such a calculation. And the calculation might be largely beside the point, anyway, since we already have socialized medicine for the elderly (and mortality rates among the elderly comparable to other advanced nations.) The real question here is going to be about mortality rates for younger people.

Anyway, although such calculations may be impossible, we can at least look at actual healthcare spending. In Massachusetts, even as Obamacare drove down mortality, it also drove down healthcare costs, relative to where they'd be if we'd followed the same trend line as the country as a whole. It's hard to picture a more clear-cut success. When the opponents are left speculating that maybe it would be better if people just dropped dead, you know they're having to work hard to find a way to bash the reform.

Romneycare did what it set out to do: it slowed healthcare spending growth and improved public health outcomes.... and it did so by way of a conservative, market-based reform of the kind Republicans like Romney used to support. That's a huge success story for practical, bipartisan policy-making. The fact it has now become a target of Republican hatred shows you just how far that party has fallen. For the GOP, politics are no longer about achieving real-world improvements for the people. They're about virtue-signalling by maintaining dogmatic adherence to absolute right-wing ideology.
 
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