Arkady
President
Right-wingers predicted a landslide for Romney. I think that some of those who did (like Dick Morris) secretly knew better, but knew that lying was necessary to keep up enthusiasm, which was important for down-ticket contests. But I think the conservatives here weren't that cynical and calculating. I take them at their word that they really thought things were a near lock for Romney, despite the hard data showing a near lock for Obama. I bring that up not to gloat, but instead to point out that this is a troubling sign of the fracturing of American society.
More and more, people live within like-minded bubbles. A huge portion of conservatives live in heavily conservative states. At least seven states went to Romney by over 60%. At least one went to him by over 70%. That's extraordinary for a losing candidate. Throughout a huge bloc of states, consisting of much of the Old Confederacy and tornado alley, he won by at least a ten-point margin. And if you took out a few urban islands of blue voters in those states, the margins would be much larger. There are many counties where Romney pulled over 80% of the vote, and quite a few where he pulled over 90%. Similarly, there are virtual "communities" where support for Romney was both uniform and enthusiastic -- Fox News, talk radio, the conservative press and websites, etc. -- and, far more than in the past, people can customize their media consumption to get only views consistent with their own.
My point is that many of the people who made the horrible predictions were probably making what appeared to be perfectly reasonable predictions based on their own local experiences. If nearly everyone you know is a right-winger who hates Obama (e.g., in a southern, white community) and you keep hearing that reinforced by right-wing media outlets, and your right-wing church, with very little dissonance coming in from opposing views, then of course you'd be skeptical of national pollsters telling you that Obama has a significant and consistent lead in the campaign.
That's not an attack on conservatives. To a lesser extent, the same is true of liberals. I knew very few Romney supporters, which is largely because most of my friends, family, and coworkers are highly educated people from New England. If I lived within, say, a black, urban community, I'm sure my view of the political world would be skewed even further by my atypical social surroundings.
This is a dangerous trend if it continues. People will lose confidence in elections if they become too consistently and extremely at odds with their perceptions of the real world. If 90% of the hundreds of people you know supported Romney, how plausible does an Obama victory look? People will also lose the willingness to embrace compromise if they come to view those with different opinions as being as foreign as if other parts of this country really were other nations entirely. I'm not sure what we can do about this, but it does worry me.
More and more, people live within like-minded bubbles. A huge portion of conservatives live in heavily conservative states. At least seven states went to Romney by over 60%. At least one went to him by over 70%. That's extraordinary for a losing candidate. Throughout a huge bloc of states, consisting of much of the Old Confederacy and tornado alley, he won by at least a ten-point margin. And if you took out a few urban islands of blue voters in those states, the margins would be much larger. There are many counties where Romney pulled over 80% of the vote, and quite a few where he pulled over 90%. Similarly, there are virtual "communities" where support for Romney was both uniform and enthusiastic -- Fox News, talk radio, the conservative press and websites, etc. -- and, far more than in the past, people can customize their media consumption to get only views consistent with their own.
My point is that many of the people who made the horrible predictions were probably making what appeared to be perfectly reasonable predictions based on their own local experiences. If nearly everyone you know is a right-winger who hates Obama (e.g., in a southern, white community) and you keep hearing that reinforced by right-wing media outlets, and your right-wing church, with very little dissonance coming in from opposing views, then of course you'd be skeptical of national pollsters telling you that Obama has a significant and consistent lead in the campaign.
That's not an attack on conservatives. To a lesser extent, the same is true of liberals. I knew very few Romney supporters, which is largely because most of my friends, family, and coworkers are highly educated people from New England. If I lived within, say, a black, urban community, I'm sure my view of the political world would be skewed even further by my atypical social surroundings.
This is a dangerous trend if it continues. People will lose confidence in elections if they become too consistently and extremely at odds with their perceptions of the real world. If 90% of the hundreds of people you know supported Romney, how plausible does an Obama victory look? People will also lose the willingness to embrace compromise if they come to view those with different opinions as being as foreign as if other parts of this country really were other nations entirely. I'm not sure what we can do about this, but it does worry me.
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