degsme
Council Member
Ok day one after the convention and we are seeing a BOUNCE
http://pollingreport.com/wh12gent.htm Gallup Daily Tracking shows Obama Up 1 Romney down 1 48:45
Rassy is showing a TWO POINT Bounce since the start of the convention .. it WAS 48:43 now its down to 46:45 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Now its important to remember that Daily Tracking polls - to eliminate "noise" and get valid sample sizes are actually SEVEN DAY ROLLING AVERAGES.
So what we are seeing is the AVERAGE polling values from Last Thursday until Yesterday. Given that this means 57% of the polling is from BEFORE the Dem Convention. This is a strong sign of a "bounce" for Obama and little Bounce for Romney. note also that FiveThirtyEight had a great chart that showed the expected AGGREGATE BOUNCE:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/sept-5-looking-ahead-after-charlotte/ where if projections for both hold accurately.. there should have been a +4 Romney Swing last Friday, that by Wednsday was neutralized with Obama getting to +1.5 by today and then tapering back to 'steady state' by the 26th.
But we didnot see the the Romney Bounce... so it may well be that the Obama Bounce is bigger.
FivethirtyEight now also has VA as a "Lean Obama"... it has folks in it like my Mom, who just moved there from NY to live with my sister. My mom is going to switch her vote from NY to VA when she gets back from her vacation.. JUST SO SHE CAN HELP SWING VA!!
Note also that my mom Voted
For Nixon in 60,
For Goldwater in 64
For Nixon in 68 and 72,
For Ford in 76
For Reagan in 80
But the GOP's hard tack to the right on reproductive rights issues has moved her to the reliable D column. And Ryan's position on Abortion and Rape, nailed the door shut this election.
http://pollingreport.com/wh12gent.htm Gallup Daily Tracking shows Obama Up 1 Romney down 1 48:45
Rassy is showing a TWO POINT Bounce since the start of the convention .. it WAS 48:43 now its down to 46:45 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Now its important to remember that Daily Tracking polls - to eliminate "noise" and get valid sample sizes are actually SEVEN DAY ROLLING AVERAGES.
So what we are seeing is the AVERAGE polling values from Last Thursday until Yesterday. Given that this means 57% of the polling is from BEFORE the Dem Convention. This is a strong sign of a "bounce" for Obama and little Bounce for Romney. note also that FiveThirtyEight had a great chart that showed the expected AGGREGATE BOUNCE:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/sept-5-looking-ahead-after-charlotte/ where if projections for both hold accurately.. there should have been a +4 Romney Swing last Friday, that by Wednsday was neutralized with Obama getting to +1.5 by today and then tapering back to 'steady state' by the 26th.
But we didnot see the the Romney Bounce... so it may well be that the Obama Bounce is bigger.
FivethirtyEight now also has VA as a "Lean Obama"... it has folks in it like my Mom, who just moved there from NY to live with my sister. My mom is going to switch her vote from NY to VA when she gets back from her vacation.. JUST SO SHE CAN HELP SWING VA!!
Note also that my mom Voted
For Nixon in 60,
For Goldwater in 64
For Nixon in 68 and 72,
For Ford in 76
For Reagan in 80
But the GOP's hard tack to the right on reproductive rights issues has moved her to the reliable D column. And Ryan's position on Abortion and Rape, nailed the door shut this election.
