Does anyone spot a pattern here?

[Arkady]

For each president for whom we have the data, here's the average unemployment rate during his term, the rate he inherited from his predecessor, and the difference between the two (i.e., whether labor conditions tended to be better or worse than where they started):

President, Average, Inherited, Difference
Ford, 7.8, 5.5, +2.3
Ike, 4.9, 2.9, +2.0
Nixon, 5.0, 3.4, +1.6
GW Bush, 5.3 ,4.2, +1.1
GHW Bush, 6.3 , 5.4, +0.9
Reagan, 7.5, 7.5, 0
Obama, 7.5, 7.8, -0.3
Kennedy, 6.0, 6.6, -0.6
Carter, 6.5, 7.5, -1.0
Johnson, 4.2, , 5.7, -1.5
Clinton, 5.2, 7.3, -2.1

There might be some sort of pattern there about how the labor market behaves depending on what party has the presidency. What do you think?

 

[Arkady]

For each president for whom we have the data, here's the average unemployment rate during his term, the rate he inherited from his predecessor, and the difference between the two (i.e., whether labor conditions tended to be better or worse than where they started):

President, Average, Inherited, Difference
Ford, 7.8, 5.5, +2.3
Ike, 4.9, 2.9, +2.0
Nixon, 5.0, 3.4, +1.6
GW Bush, 5.3 ,4.2, +1.1
GHW Bush, 6.3 , 5.4, +0.9
Reagan, 7.5, 7.5, 0
Obama, 7.5, 7.8, -0.3
Kennedy, 6.0, 6.6, -0.6
Carter, 6.5, 7.5, -1.0
Johnson, 4.2, , 5.7, -1.5
Clinton, 5.2, 7.3, -2.1

There might be some sort of pattern there about how the labor market behaves depending on what party has the presidency. What do you think?

To be fair to Obama, his term isn't done yet. Assuming his last four months are in line with the rest of 2016, he'll end up at -0.4.