Bugsy McGurk
President
Sorry haters - the sky may not be falling after all.
;-)
;-)
Hmm....Dow is up 250 so far today....
- Thread starter Bugsy McGurk
- Start date
Klunker
Council Member
Most of those economists that I have listened to are predicting volitility... but not collapse. Due to the continued growth of the U.S. economy, the dollar has gained strength. The dollar's gains, though good for the U.S., hurts foreign economies. We live in a global economic climate. Hence, as there is economic instability overseas, we will see some speed bumps in our markets.
I drive 30,000 to 40,000 miles/year. I am thoroughly enjoying the drop in crude prices which is taking the cost of gasoline lower. Lower fuel costs should contribute to families having more money to spend during the Christmas season. We will see people more optimistic... except the ODSers.
I drive 30,000 to 40,000 miles/year. I am thoroughly enjoying the drop in crude prices which is taking the cost of gasoline lower. Lower fuel costs should contribute to families having more money to spend during the Christmas season. We will see people more optimistic... except the ODSers.
Fast Eddy
Mayor
Nothing moves straight, it moves in waves. There are books on the subject. We have peaked and are heading down, it will be according to typical waves unless we go into free fall, which could easily happen.
Bugsy McGurk
President
as seen on tv
Senator
henry blodget "despite losing all of the YTD gains, stocks are still overvalued 30-40%"
here's the link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lets-closer-look-ginormous-stock-172500723.html
here's the link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lets-closer-look-ginormous-stock-172500723.html
Arkady
President
I hope it's more than a one-day improvement. I know I sound spoiled here, given what an awesome bull market we had for years, but watching the last few days of sharp decline was giving me traumatic flashbacks to the Bush era, as I watched my retirement savings vanishing in big chunks. Fingers crossed for sustained improvement.
Arkady
President
Feel free to put your money where you mouth is, by playing the options market. If you guess right, and we are headed down, you'll make a lot of money. If we go into free fall, you'll get very rich. Or, if you guess wrong, you'll lose it all.
There have been a whole lot of people on the right predicting gloom and doom for the stock market ever since Obama was elected. Some were just propagandists trying to attack Obama. But some really did believe their own arguments, and those people lost great fortunes, and often their jobs (those who were money managers). Meanwhile, those of us who bet that the stock market would do well have enjoyed quite strong returns.
Arkady
President
Blodget? The guy who got rich defrauding investors before being banned from the industry? He was famous for publicly communicating messages about stocks that fundamentally differed from his actual assessment, in order to make money. For example, on the same day, he'd hype a stock publicly, while e-mailing insiders to let them know it was a "dog." Given his well-established tendency to lie to dumb people, publicly, about investment opportunities, while his real analysis pointed the other direction, why would anyone take anything he says seriously? We don't even know if Blodget really thinks stocks are overvalued. That might just be something he's saying to the rubes, in public, to push down prices briefly, to create buying opportunities for the insiders who are privy to his real opinions.
Even if it's not intentional fraud, Blodget has been truly horrible at predicting the market. Here he is on March 25, 2010, saying stocks are 30% overvalued:
http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...going-upmeanwhile-housing-rolling-over-2010-3
Here he is in September 23, 2009, saying stocks are 20% overvalued.
http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...-are-overvalued-and-tremendously-risky-2009-9
So, what if you'd been one of those idiots, back in September 2009, who'd listened to Blodget? Well, at the time the S&P 500 stood at 1060.87 (adjusted close, accounting for splits and dividends), and you'd have thought its real valuation was 848.70 (20% down). So, you'd have sold. Today, it's worth 1,883.20, even after the pull-back. Thus, by listening to Blodget, you'd have missed out on a 77.5% return on investment. There's a reason that taking investment advice from a notorious fraudster isn't a particularly good idea.
By the way, the guy is even worse when it comes to individual stocks. He said Open Table's stock was overvalued at $28.71/share. Right now it stands at $102.95. If you'd listened to him and sold, you'd have missed out on a 258.58% return!
worldlymrb
Daddy
Thanks to our private central bank (Federal Reserve) promising more liquidity (money printing), in the event of any further bad economic news.
Dow Surges 400 Points After Fed's Bullard Prevents Plunge With QE4 Bluff
10/17/2014 - 11:15
It never gets old... if this sell-off was triggered by a realization that the consumer is truly depressed (retail sales) and the Fed is almost done, then the face-ripping rally (notably on weak volume) of the last 24+ hours is the ugly truth that the 'market' is always and everyday a function of central-bank bullshit. Since Bullard's "QE4" comment (strengthened by random headlines on Yellen's "economic confidence" and ECB Coeure's "QE any minute" comment), the Dow is up 400 points, S&P up 70, and Trannies up 3.5%. Small Caps are now up 3.5% on the week and 30Y Treasury yields only -2.5bps on the week
Dow Surges 400 Points After Fed's Bullard Prevents Plunge With QE4 Bluff
10/17/2014 - 11:15
It never gets old... if this sell-off was triggered by a realization that the consumer is truly depressed (retail sales) and the Fed is almost done, then the face-ripping rally (notably on weak volume) of the last 24+ hours is the ugly truth that the 'market' is always and everyday a function of central-bank bullshit. Since Bullard's "QE4" comment (strengthened by random headlines on Yellen's "economic confidence" and ECB Coeure's "QE any minute" comment), the Dow is up 400 points, S&P up 70, and Trannies up 3.5%. Small Caps are now up 3.5% on the week and 30Y Treasury yields only -2.5bps on the week
worldlymrb
Daddy
That's funny, I thought deflation was BAD for the consumer and economy?
I wish you armchair Marxist would make up your mind..lol
Fast Eddy
Mayor
Yup, i'm betting big it is going down. In 2008 i saw it coming and hedged big and made a million on the down side. Look to do it again. As of today I'm us 100k.
Fast Eddy
Mayor
Don't hope for a crash, just reading the tea leaves and it has amazed me how things have not crashed already. Obama the destroyer has hurt damn near everything.
Insect ONLY reports on UP's
Never on Downs
I refuse to feed the Insect...................
yet, the price of commodities will Increase.........investors will sell oil stocks and drive up cost of food.........
Corn/Soybeans already on the rise................
Arkady
President
Wouldn't it be nice for you if any of that was true?
Arkady
President
I'm happy to talk about the impact of Obama's leadership on the broader nation: lower unemployment, higher real GDP per capita, lower murder rates, higher share of people covered by health insurance, lower per-GDP carbon emissions, lower deficits, higher stock values, etc.
Fast Eddy
Mayor
Yup, its true!
