https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...-the-s-p-500-has-performed-under-donald-trump
So here’s the total return on the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, for the first three years after the initial election of every president since Herbert Hoover:
Presidents and Stock Markets
S&P 500 total return, adjusted for inflation, in three years after initial election
Some prefer to track stock market performance from Inauguration Day, and CNN has a handy online tracker that already does this for Trump and the last few presidents. Trump argues that one should measure from Election Day, and while he surely does so mainly because it makes him look better, he also happens to be right. Market indices are forward-looking metrics, and were already reflecting investors’ opinions on a Trump presidency on Nov. 9, 2016.
Using this approach left the question of how to measure performance under Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, who took office after the deaths of their predecessors and were subsequently elected. I decided to go with performance from Election Day, but I think the other approach would be equally valid. As for Gerald Ford, he was neither elected nor served for three years, so there was no place for him in this ranking.
Total return measures how much an investment in the companies in the S&P 500 Index would grow if dividends were reinvested in those companies as they were paid out. Dividends were a much bigger part of investor returns before World War II, and even before the 1990s, so any comparison that excludes them overstates market performance under recent presidents. Any comparison that ignores inflation, meanwhile, understates the awfulness of the 1970s stock market and overstates the goodness of the 1980s market.
Stock market performance in first three years since Trump’s election, then, ranks fourth among the 14 elected presidents since Herbert Hoover. That’s pretty good! It’s worth noting, though, that there’s not a whole lot separating him from John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush. A bad week or two, and he could easily fall to eighth place. On the other hand, falling to ninth would take some work, as would catching up to Dwight Eisenhower for third. Put into letter grades, I’d give the market’s performance since Trump’s election a solid B.
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BOOM!
So here’s the total return on the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, for the first three years after the initial election of every president since Herbert Hoover:
Presidents and Stock Markets
S&P 500 total return, adjusted for inflation, in three years after initial election
Some prefer to track stock market performance from Inauguration Day, and CNN has a handy online tracker that already does this for Trump and the last few presidents. Trump argues that one should measure from Election Day, and while he surely does so mainly because it makes him look better, he also happens to be right. Market indices are forward-looking metrics, and were already reflecting investors’ opinions on a Trump presidency on Nov. 9, 2016.
Using this approach left the question of how to measure performance under Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, who took office after the deaths of their predecessors and were subsequently elected. I decided to go with performance from Election Day, but I think the other approach would be equally valid. As for Gerald Ford, he was neither elected nor served for three years, so there was no place for him in this ranking.
Total return measures how much an investment in the companies in the S&P 500 Index would grow if dividends were reinvested in those companies as they were paid out. Dividends were a much bigger part of investor returns before World War II, and even before the 1990s, so any comparison that excludes them overstates market performance under recent presidents. Any comparison that ignores inflation, meanwhile, understates the awfulness of the 1970s stock market and overstates the goodness of the 1980s market.
Stock market performance in first three years since Trump’s election, then, ranks fourth among the 14 elected presidents since Herbert Hoover. That’s pretty good! It’s worth noting, though, that there’s not a whole lot separating him from John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush. A bad week or two, and he could easily fall to eighth place. On the other hand, falling to ninth would take some work, as would catching up to Dwight Eisenhower for third. Put into letter grades, I’d give the market’s performance since Trump’s election a solid B.
____________________________________________________
BOOM!
