Is it okay to be selfish?

[as seen on tv]

Photo above - Putin rides a bear, to prove he's not dying (possibly fake)
Not Shown - Biden, playing frisbee with "Commander", the white house dog​

Is it okay to be selfish?

There are 2 kinds of people in this forum. People with jobs, and at least a little money socked away in 401K/IRA retirement accounts. And people who don't work or have zero savings.

If you're in group B, you may be happier if you stop reading now. You live in a different world than group A and might only be perplexed or angered by what follows.

Today's topic – the stock market in 2023. Someone recently emailed me – excited! The “golden cross” just happened. The DJIA 50 day moving average “crossed” its own 200 day moving average. This is a highly technical indicator which (sometimes – at least half the time) portends a big rise in the stock market. Sort of like Groundhog Day for stocks. The DJIA sees its own shadow, and the future is set! My friend was ready to go “all in”. Here's the reality check I gave her.

1. If congress fails to address the federal debt limit, and we have a default – even a “short one”, will stocks go up or down?
   
2. If President Biden resigns/retires - whether due to poor health, metastasizing secret docs, or even a dog bite - and Kamala Harris is promoted to the oval office, will stocks go up or down?
   
3. If Donald Trump becomes dominant in the 2024 republican polls, do stocks go up or down?
   
4. If the hundreds of thousands of migrants massing at the US border are finally allowed in, do stocks go up or down?
   
5. If high Fed Funds rates persist, choking off new home construction and corporate hiring, do stocks go up or down?
   
6. If bush-league crypto currencies continue to drop like flies, will investors jump to Bitcoin? Or will “the big one” come under pressure to show it's not a similar ponzi scheme? If Bitcoin falls, and Trillions disappear into thin air, do stocks go up or down?

(Disclaimer – this writer has been wrong as much as she has been right about the future trend of the stock market. About the same batting average as the “golden cross”. However, I did predict that 2022 would be problematic too)

My retirement account remains about 80% in cash. Yesterday I sold META (Facebook) after a 90% gain in the past 3 months. Several oil stocks, too. And an obscure Turkish mutual fund, which was up about 70% since I bought it. Because I don't see Turkey's support of Russia in this Ukraine thing ending well.

In fact, I don't see Ukraine ending well. We are experiencing a generational failure of global morality. But with Biden – or Kamala, or Trump - “leading” NATO, things can only get better, right?

Right?

 

[bdtex]

How close are you to retirement and do you plan to live off the cash before begin drawing the 20%? Whether you are playing the long game or not matters.

 

[TBLee]

How close are you to retirement and do you plan to live off the cash before begin drawing the 20%? Whether you are playing the long game or not matters.

Absolutely true to consider all aspects. When we retired early, we had a plan to not “dip” into our 401K for at least five years. So far so good. We do have some cash set aside, but much is invested.

 

[bdtex]

My retirement account remains about 80% in cash.

Have you put some in CDs and locked in some of the higher APYs some institutions have been offering?

 

[bdtex]

There are 2 kinds of people in this forum. People with jobs, and at least a little money socked away in 401K/IRA retirement accounts. And people who don't work or have zero savings.

I should add that I take you at your word and commend your fiscal planning and discipline.

 

[as seen on tv]

How close are you to retirement and do you plan to live off the cash before begin drawing the 20%? Whether you are playing the long game or not matters.

i'm one of those risk averse people who feels more pain when stocks go down, than seeing a stop go up that i neglected to buy.

long or short game, i think a time of war, high inflation, and skyrocketing interest rates are formidable obstacles to the market.

 

[as seen on tv]

Have you put some in CDs and locked in some of the higher APYs some institutions have been offering?

i have had some CDs off and on for the past several years. generally 6 months maturity. the interest rates are absurdly low. i'm trying to replace them with household name stocks which pay dividends north of 4%. which is how i had the good fortune of wandering into XOM and XLE last year.

 

[as seen on tv]

Absolutely true to consider all aspects. When we retired early, we had a plan to not “dip” into our 401K for at least five years. So far so good. We do have some cash set aside, but much is invested.

i have a friend with 3 bitcoins, which he purchased more than a year ago at about $15,000. i pray for his safety.

 

[bdtex]

i'm trying to replace them with household name stocks which pay dividends north of 4%. which is how i had the good fortune of wandering into XOM and XLE last year.

Last October, I put a big chunk in a 4 year CD at 4.05% APY. In November I put the same chunk in a 1 year CD at 4.05% APY at the same financial institution. Other than my 401K at my business, I haven't put any money into retirement accounts since July last year. Ima let that ride in hopes that it goes back up then switch to a more conservative allocation/management strategy.

 

[Addy]

In November I put the same chunk in a 1 year CD at 4.05% APY

Way to go... those CD interest rates are so much better these days.

 

[TBLee]

i have a friend with 3 bitcoins, which he purchased more than a year ago at about $15,000. i pray for his safety.

Hoping that turns out okay for us but that's very scary

 

[TBLee]

Last October, I put a big chunk in a 4 year CD at 4.05% APY. In November I put the same chunk in a 1 year CD at 4.05% APY at the same financial institution. Other than my 401K at my business, I haven't put any money into retirement accounts since July last year. Ima let that ride in hopes that it goes back up then switch to a more conservative allocation/management strategy.

It's without a doubt it's a very scary situation right now. We lost a fair amount and I am hoping to recoup some of that but I am not convinced that's going to happen anytime soon

 

[bdtex]

We lost a fair amount and I am hoping to recoup some of that but I am not convinced that's going to happen anytime soon

Sorry about that. I don't plan to draw on my retirement accounts for at least 5-6 years so I have time to wait.

 

[TBLee]

Sorry about that. I don't plan to draw on my retirement accounts for at least 5-6 years so I have time to wait.

We haven’t had to draw any yet, thankfully. We were lucky enough to retire early, and planned to do so.

 

[write on]

i have had some CDs off and on for the past several years. generally 6 months maturity. the interest rates are absurdly low. i'm trying to replace them with household name stocks which pay dividends north of 4%. which is how i had the good fortune of wandering into XOM and XLE last year.

I just reinvested my CD at my bank at 2.52% with at a 14 month maturity only to find out days later that many other banks offer a higher APY.

grrr

 

[TBLee]

I just reinvested my CD at my bank into a 2.52% CD with at a 14 month maturity only to find out that many other banks offer a higher rate.

grrr

Crap…

 

[write on]

Crap…

Crap, what?

Do a little research on how banks are screwing people over.

 

[Dawg]

I just reinvested my CD at my bank at 2.52% with at a 14 month maturity only to find out days later that many other banks offer a higher APY.

grrr

Why didn't you research before reinvesting who was paying what?
Blame yourself.......

 

[write on]

Why didn't you research before reinvesting who was paying what?
Blame yourself.......

Because rates change daily form bank to bank.

I'm not about to jump from bank to bank just to get a a better dividend.

My time is worth more than money- if you get what I mean.

 

[Dawg]

Because rates change daily form bank to bank.

I'm not about to jump from bank to bank just to get a a better dividend.

My time is worth more than money- if you get what I mean.

So don't whine about it when you could have researched rates while here