LeRoy's NFL Power Rankings, 01/21/13

[LeRoy_Was_Here]

Teams still alive in bold:

1. San Francisco (13-4-1): 11.65 vs Baltimore
2. Baltimore (13-6-0): 11.11 vs San Francisco
3. Denver (13-4-0): 11.09 FINAL
4. Atlanta (14-4-0): 11.01 FINAL
5. Seattle (12-6-0): 10.96 FINAL
6. New England (13-5-0): 10.93 FINAL
7. Houston (13-5-0): 8.72 FINAL
8. Green Bay (12-6-0): 8.49 FINAL
9. Chicago (10-6-0): 8.37
10. Cincinnati (10-7-0): 7.22 FINAL
11. NY Giants (9-7-0): 7.00
12. Minnesota (10-7-0): 6.29 FINAL
13. Washington (10-7-0): 6.27 FINAL
14. Indianapolis (11-6-0): 5.94 FINAL
15. Pittsburgh (8-8-0): 5.41
16. Dallas (8-8-0): 4.69
17. New Orleans (7-9-0): 4.48
18. Carolina (7-9-0): 4.37
19. Tampa Bay (7-9-0): 4.36
20. San Diego (7-9-0): 4.33
21. St. Louis (7-8-1): 4.14
22. Miami (7-9-0): 3.99
23. Buffalo (6-10-0): 3.00
24. NY Jets (6-10-0): 2.82
25. Tennessee (6-10-0): 2.63
26. Cleveland (5-11-0): 2.62
27. Arizona (5-11-0): 2.27
28. Detroit (4-12-0): 2.09
29. Oakland (4-12-0): 1.60
30. Philadelphia (4-12-0): 1.57
31. Jacksonville (2-14-0): 0.72
32. Kansas City (2-14-0): 0.61

 

[LeRoy_Was_Here]

NOTES:

(1) Very large gap after the top 6 teams, between New England and Houston. Those top six teams are well above the rest of the league.

(2) But, in my judgment, New England is a team in decline, whereas Denver and Seattle are teams on the rise. I see Baltimore and Denver as being the two powers in the AFC. Note how close their rankings are. Can't get much closer than that.

(3) I expect Denver to be substantially better next year. The chemistry between Manning and his receivers will be much better developed next year. The Broncos should be able to pick up at least one very good defensive player in the draft. I trust John Elway on his evaluation of talent. The man knows his stuff. Like picking up Trindon Holliday on waivers. Brilliant. It is a shame the Broncos wasted the scintillating world-class performance by Trindon Holliday in their playoff game with Baltimore. First man in NFL history to have a punt return TD AND a kickoff return TD in the same playoff game. I don't think the Broncos will lose more than one or two regular season games next year. That would make them the number one seed in the AFC again next year, and I don't think they'll blow it next year.

(4) The algorithm favors San Francisco by 1 point in the Superbowl. But I have not made my own pick just yet. The Baltimore Ravens are one hard-nosed football team, and this is the Last Ride of Ray Lewis. They're clearly trying to make it special for him. I just might go with the older brother John in this coaching matchup.

(5) Two dubious no-calls----one of them VERY dubious----have somewhat marred this NFL playoff season, at least from my perspective. The 4th down and 4 yards to go play by Atlanta with about a minute left in their game with San Fran---interference could have been called on that play, and in my opinion should have been. The pick six play by Baltimore in their game with Denver---interference should have DEFINITELY been called on that play. The outcomes of both of those games may have been altered by those two no-calls.

 

[Craig]

NOTES:

(1) Very large gap after the top 6 teams, between New England and Houston. Those top six teams are well above the rest of the league.

(2) But, in my judgment, New England is a team in decline, whereas Denver and Seattle are teams on the rise. I see Baltimore and Denver as being the two powers in the AFC. Note how close their rankings are. Can't get much closer than that.

(3) I expect Denver to be substantially better next year. The chemistry between Manning and his receivers will be much better developed next year. The Broncos should be able to pick up at least one very good defensive player in the draft. I trust John Elway on his evaluation of talent. The man knows his stuff. Like picking up Trindon Holliday on waivers. Brilliant. It is a shame the Broncos wasted the scintillating world-class performance by Trindon Holliday in their playoff game with Baltimore. First man in NFL history to have a punt return TD AND a kickoff return TD in the same playoff game. I don't think the Broncos will lose more than one or two regular season games next year. That would make them the number one seed in the AFC again next year, and I don't think they'll blow it next year.

(4) The algorithm favors San Francisco by 1 point in the Superbowl. But I have not made my own pick just yet. The Baltimore Ravens are one hard-nosed football team, and this is the Last Ride of Ray Lewis. They're clearly trying to make it special for him. I just might go with the older brother John in this coaching matchup.

(5) Two dubious no-calls----one of them VERY dubious----have somewhat marred this NFL playoff season, at least from my perspective. The 4th down and 4 yards to go play by Atlanta with about a minute left in their game with San Fran---interference could have been called on that play, and in my opinion should have been. The pick six play by Baltimore in their game with Denver---interference should have DEFINITELY been called on that play. The outcomes of both of those games may have been altered by those two no-calls.

The refs definitely play a part in every game. I caught a few yesterday...and of course, the ones I saw were on the side of the Pats...this is merely observational and I have no doubt biased. The Ravens for example, were called for a personal foul that was the result of a retaliatory push...and the same event occurred moments later...a Pat pushing a Raven in retaliatory fashion...and no flag was thrown. Another case saw the Ravens penalized for a helmet hit to the chin...and yes...a few moments later...a helmet hit to the chin....by a Pat...went uncalled.

Such is life in the game...

I'll be rooting for the Ravens, Baltimore is my home town...and the Colts were my childhood team. After they left, I wandered the NFL desert for a few years, but I moved to SF in the late 70's...just in time to become a fan of the 49ers. It was extra fun having headlines like "Craig Runs Wild In 49ers Win"...

And New Orleans has my favorite music...so it's a win win win for me...

 

[LeRoy_Was_Here]

The refs definitely play a part in every game. I caught a few yesterday...and of course, the ones I saw were on the side of the Pats...this is merely observational and I have no doubt biased. The Ravens for example, were called for a personal foul that was the result of a retaliatory push...and the same event occurred moments later...a Pat pushing a Raven in retaliatory fashion...and no flag was thrown. Another case saw the Ravens penalized for a helmet hit to the chin...and yes...a few moments later...a helmet hit to the chin....by a Pat...went uncalled.

Yeah, I noticed those things, too. But it's usually the player who is retaliating who gets called for the personal foul. That helmet hit to the chin by the Pats player should have DEFINITELY been called.

Kudos to the Ravens for holding New England----the highest scoring team in the league----scoreless in the second half. Outscored them 21-0 in the second half, after finally letting Joe Flacco loose, and just letting him rip....

 

[Havelock]

(5) Two dubious no-calls----one of them VERY dubious----have somewhat marred this NFL playoff season, at least from my perspective. The 4th down and 4 yards to go play by Atlanta with about a minute left in their game with San Fran---interference could have been called on that play, and in my opinion should have been. The pick six play by Baltimore in their game with Denver---interference should have DEFINITELY been called on that play. The outcomes of both of those games may have been altered by those two no-calls.

Really?

Everyone sees the “bad” calls that don't go their way, eh? And folks tend not to notice or to discount the “bad” calls that work to their preferred team's favor. Personally, in general I prefer to see the refs keep the flags in their pockets on a close play that could be decisive. That's doubly true for a playoff game.

The Raven's pick six...? Yeah, that certainly could have been called defensive pass interference. Maybe it should've been. But we've all seen similar plays that weren't called – and plays with less contact that were called. If the result of the play hadn't have been a score by the defense, it would've been just another play.

As you say, the non-call in the SF/Atlanta game was even closer. I think that was a good no-call, but of course I'm not impartial. In any case, I don't see how anyone can complain about that non-call and not utter a word about the Harry Douglas “catch” a few plays earlier. If Atlanta had gone on to win that game, especially if defensive pass interference had been called on that 4th-down play, San Fransisco fans would've been screaming and steaming about it forever.

I've read lots of comments here and there about how “the fix” must've been in because the league wants to sell the “Harbowl” story line. (I'm not saying you've suggested that, by the way.) If a couple of calls had gone the other way we'd be hearing about how “the fix” was in because “they” want to sell the match-up of retiring 1st ballot Hall of Fame players Lewis and Gonzalez, or “they” want to see a shootout between the old guard (Brady) and the new hotness (Kaepernick), or... whatever.

Point is, in any close game one can point to close calls or non-calls that may have tipped the game one way or the other. That's the nature of the sport. I don't see how these playoffs have been “marred” by that more than most others have been.

Cheers.

 

[LeRoy_Was_Here]

Really?

Everyone sees the “bad” calls that don't go their way, eh? And folks tend not to notice or to discount the “bad” calls that work to their preferred team's favor. Personally, in general I prefer to see the refs keep the flags in their pockets on a close play that could be decisive. That's doubly true for a playoff game.

The Raven's pick six...? Yeah, that certainly could have been called defensive pass interference. Maybe it should've been. But we've all seen similar plays that weren't called – and plays with less contact that were called. If the result of the play hadn't have been a score by the defense, it would've been just another play.

As you say, the non-call in the SF/Atlanta game was even closer. I think that was a good no-call, but of course I'm not impartial. In any case, I don't see how anyone can complain about that non-call and not utter a word about the Harry Douglas “catch” a few plays earlier. If Atlanta had gone on to win that game, especially if defensive pass interference had been called on that 4th-down play, San Fransisco fans would've been screaming and steaming about it forever.

I've read lots of comments here and there about how “the fix” must've been in because the league wants to sell the “Harbowl” story line. (I'm not saying you've suggested that, by the way.) If a couple of calls had gone the other way we'd be hearing about how “the fix” was in because “they” want to sell the match-up of retiring 1st ballot Hall of Fame players Lewis and Gonzalez, or “they” want to see a shootout between the old guard (Brady) and the new hotness (Kaepernick), or... whatever.

Point is, in any close game one can point to close calls or non-calls that may have tipped the game one way or the other. That's the nature of the sport. I don't see how these playoffs have been “marred” by that more than most others have been.

Cheers.

Well, I did say somewhat marred. I just hate to see bad calls. Or bad no-calls. But I agree about the 'iffiness' of that Harry Douglas catch a few plays before the 4th down and 4 play. That probably should have been called an incomplete pass. But it was called complete on the field, and I'm not SURE there was enough video evidence to overturn the on-the-field call. I have sometimes thought pass interference calls should be subject to instant replay and review. On the pick six play by the Ravens, the defender was yanking down on Eric Decker's left arm before the ball got there. If that's not interference, maybe we should just toss the interference penalty out of the books, and let it be a free-for-all.

IMHO, of course. The usual disclaimers....

 

[Bo-4]

Pretty decent analysis of the big one LR:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...odds-line-and-spread-info-for-ravens-vs-49ers

 

[LeRoy_Was_Here]

Pretty decent analysis of the big one LR:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...odds-line-and-spread-info-for-ravens-vs-49ers

Someone should know the history on this: Has a rookie quarterback EVER won the Superbowl??

 

[Havelock]

Someone should know the history on this: Has a rookie quarterback EVER won the Superbowl??

No rookie quarterback has ever won the Super Bowl. In fact, I don't believe that a rookie quaterback has ever started in the Super Bowl. If Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers win this year, he'll be the fourth 2nd-year quarterback to win the big one – the other three being Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger. (Warner had Arena Football and NFL Europe experience, but he was a 2nd-year NFL player when he won the Super Bowl with the Rams.) Colin would be the second 2nd-year quarterback who wasn't the starter when the season began to lead his team to victory – the first being Tom Brady who took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in game 2 of the 2001 season and never relinquished the starter's position thereafter.

Cheers!

 

[LeRoy_Was_Here]

No rookie quarterback has ever won the Super Bowl. In fact, I don't believe that a rookie quaterback has ever started in the Super Bowl. If Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers win this year, he'll be the fourth 2nd-year quarterback to win the big one – the other three being Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger. (Warner had Arena Football and NFL Europe experience, but he was a 2nd-year NFL player when he won the Super Bowl with the Rams.) Colin would be the second 2nd-year quarterback who wasn't the starter when the season began to lead his team to victory – the first being Tom Brady who took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in game 2 of the 2001 season and never relinquished the starter's position thereafter.

Cheers!

I guess Dan Marino was a 2nd-year QB that year when the Miami Dolphins were trounced by the Joe Montana-led 49ers, right? And poor Dan never got back to the Superbowl....

 

[Bo-4]

Thanks man, many forget that Kappy is in his second year with Niners, even though the difference between a true rookie and one who sits on the bench then starts midway though his second year would certainly be minimal.

He's not only athletically gifted but incredibly smart with the split second decisions!

No rookie quarterback has ever won the Super Bowl. In fact, I don't believe that a rookie quaterback has ever started in the Super Bowl. If Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers win this year, he'll be the fourth 2nd-year quarterback to win the big one – the other three being Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger. (Warner had Arena Football and NFL Europe experience, but he was a 2nd-year NFL player when he won the Super Bowl with the Rams.) Colin would be the second 2nd-year quarterback who wasn't the starter when the season began to lead his team to victory – the first being Tom Brady who took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in game 2 of the 2001 season and never relinquished the starter's position thereafter.

Cheers!

 

[Havelock]

Thanks man, many forget that Kappy is in his second year with Niners, even though the difference between a true rookie and one who sits on the bench then starts midway though his second year would certainly be minimal.

He's not only athletically gifted but incredibly smart with the split second decisions!

When he starts the game, Colin will be in the books as the Super Bowl starting quarterback with the fewest previous starts by far. And you're right, he sure doesn't play like a QB who's only started nine games. He could be really, really good. Time will tell.

Cheers!

Edit: Nope, I'm wrong. It's close, but Jeff Hostetler actually had fewer starts when he started Super Bowl XXV for the Giants in 1991.

Ah well, Colin is still more impressive than Jeff was!

 

[Havelock]

I guess Dan Marino was a 2nd-year QB that year when the Miami Dolphins were trounced by the Joe Montana-led 49ers, right? And poor Dan never got back to the Superbowl....

Yep, and who would've believed at the time that Dan would never make it back?

I was wrong in my reply to Bo below about Colin Kaepernick having the fewest starts of any Super Bowl QB, though. I believe that distinction actually goes to none other than Jeff Hostetler, who was a long-time backup for the Giants but only got a couple of starts before taking over for an injured Phil Simms and starting the last two regular season games and the playoffs/Super Bowl.

Cheers!

 

[Bo-4]

When Nevada took my Broncos to FOUR overtimes on his heroics as a RS Freshman several years back.. and we won it by the skin of our teeth in the highest scoring CFB score in history...

I said to my daughter on way back to our car:

Damn.. that dude was fun to watch!

When he starts the game, Colin will be in the books as the Super Bowl starting quarterback with the fewest previous starts by far. And you're right, he sure doesn't play like a QB who's only started nine games. He could be really, really good. Time will tell.

Cheers!

Edit: Nope, I'm wrong. It's close, but Jeff Hostetler actually had fewer starts when he started Super Bowl XXV for the Giants in 1991.

Ah well, Colin is still more impressive than Jeff was!