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Politically-driven innumeracy

Arkady

President
This is an interesting story, but a very troubling one:

http://www.salon.com/2013/09/05/study_proves_that_politics_and_math_are_incompatible/

In a nutshell, people lose the ability to do math properly when the problem implicates their political beliefs -- and the tendency to get things wrong for political reasons is actually greater among those with better math abilities.

I've seen a few recent articles that disturb me in a similar way, because they undermine my hopes about the effectiveness of rational argument. I usually approach political controversies as being a matter for research and analysis, and then for presenting the results as clearly as I can. Embedded in that is the implicit assumption that mistaken political beliefs (my own, or other people's) are a matter of ignorance, and can be fixed with knowledge. But recent studies that suggest the way the brain just doesn't work right when certain emotions are triggered really rattle that assumption. They suggest that in some cases smarter and more knowledgeable people may actually be harder to push off of false conclusions, simply because they marshal more mental horsepower to keep themselves entrenched. If all I'm doing is getting my opponents to spin their mental wheels, they may just be digging themselves into a deeper rut.

I say I find these stories troubling, but not doubtful. They're consistent with something I've been more and more aware of the longer I try to debate issues online. Arguing from facts and figures almost never gets me anywhere. On the rare occasion where someone's mind was changed by something I said, it was almost always some sort of emotional plea, not a simple demonstration that the measurable facts were entirely at odds with their theories.

There's that old line that most people use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamppost -- more for support than illumination. I think that's right, and it makes me skeptical about the efficacy of my preferred style of political engagement. I'd probably be much better coming up with catch phrases and charismatic emotional appeals than doing research and numerical analysis. Catch phrases change the world ("Carthago delenda est," "Lebensraum," "Government is the Problem") where rational analysis is just treated as a puzzle for opponents to solve.
 
This is an interesting story, but a very troubling one:

http://www.salon.com/2013/09/05/study_proves_that_politics_and_math_are_incompatible/

In a nutshell, people lose the ability to do math properly when the problem implicates their political beliefs -- and the tendency to get things wrong for political reasons is actually greater among those with better math abilities.

I've seen a few recent articles that disturb me in a similar way, because they undermine my hopes about the effectiveness of rational argument. I usually approach political controversies as being a matter for research and analysis, and then for presenting the results as clearly as I can. Embedded in that is the implicit assumption that mistaken political beliefs (my own, or other people's) are a matter of ignorance, and can be fixed with knowledge. But recent studies that suggest the way the brain just doesn't work right when certain emotions are triggered really rattle that assumption. They suggest that in some cases smarter and more knowledgeable people may actually be harder to push off of false conclusions, simply because they marshal more mental horsepower to keep themselves entrenched. If all I'm doing is getting my opponents to spin their mental wheels, they may just be digging themselves into a deeper rut.

I say I find these stories troubling, but not doubtful. They're consistent with something I've been more and more aware of the longer I try to debate issues online. Arguing from facts and figures almost never gets me anywhere. On the rare occasion where someone's mind was changed by something I said, it was almost always some sort of emotional plea, not a simple demonstration that the measurable facts were entirely at odds with their theories.

There's that old line that most people use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamppost -- more for support than illumination. I think that's right, and it makes me skeptical about the efficacy of my preferred style of political engagement. I'd probably be much better coming up with catch phrases and charismatic emotional appeals than doing research and numerical analysis. Catch phrases change the world ("Carthago delenda est," "Lebensraum," "Government is the Problem") where rational analysis is just treated as a puzzle for opponents to solve.

Sometimes "facts and figures" can be influenced by various agendas. It can be useful to look at a wider variety of sources.
 
This is an interesting story, but a very troubling one:

http://www.salon.com/2013/09/05/study_proves_that_politics_and_math_are_incompatible/

In a nutshell, people lose the ability to do math properly when the problem implicates their political beliefs -- and the tendency to get things wrong for political reasons is actually greater among those with better math abilities.

I've seen a few recent articles that disturb me in a similar way, because they undermine my hopes about the effectiveness of rational argument. I usually approach political controversies as being a matter for research and analysis, and then for presenting the results as clearly as I can. Embedded in that is the implicit assumption that mistaken political beliefs (my own, or other people's) are a matter of ignorance, and can be fixed with knowledge. But recent studies that suggest the way the brain just doesn't work right when certain emotions are triggered really rattle that assumption. They suggest that in some cases smarter and more knowledgeable people may actually be harder to push off of false conclusions, simply because they marshal more mental horsepower to keep themselves entrenched. If all I'm doing is getting my opponents to spin their mental wheels, they may just be digging themselves into a deeper rut.

I say I find these stories troubling, but not doubtful. They're consistent with something I've been more and more aware of the longer I try to debate issues online. Arguing from facts and figures almost never gets me anywhere. On the rare occasion where someone's mind was changed by something I said, it was almost always some sort of emotional plea, not a simple demonstration that the measurable facts were entirely at odds with their theories.

There's that old line that most people use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamppost -- more for support than illumination. I think that's right, and it makes me skeptical about the efficacy of my preferred style of political engagement. I'd probably be much better coming up with catch phrases and charismatic emotional appeals than doing research and numerical analysis. Catch phrases change the world ("Carthago delenda est," "Lebensraum," "Government is the Problem") where rational analysis is just treated as a puzzle for opponents to solve.

I posted this link the other day as part of a different conversation, but check out the part about MRI's; it relates to what you are saying. http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/monkey_dance.htm
 
I posted this link the other day as part of a different conversation, but check out the part about MRI's; it relates to what you are saying. http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/monkey_dance.htm
It's a really thorny problem. I mean, even if it were possible to act like a Vulcan and completely detach your emotions from your reason (and it isn't), it's not clear that would be better. I've noticed that the facts that stick most strongly in my heads are those with some emotional freight -- facts, either supporting my view or challenging it-- on issues I feel very strongly about. And that makes sense, since it's well known that memory depends a great deal on emotion -- chances are you have shockingly clear memories of where you were when you heard about certain traumatic facts (a national disaster like the Kennedy shooting, or the death of a parent, or a cancer diagnosis). Emotion also drives the effort needed to understand difficult topics -- I'm never going to do the research needed to understand some subject that I just don't care about emotionally. So, developing a very strong understanding of a tough topic involves a really difficult psychological trick: you somehow need to care about it emotionally enough to put your ambition in gear and put your memory on high alert, while somehow preventing that emotion from interfering with the functioning of your rational mind. It can be done, I suppose, but I guess it's little wonder most of us fail, most of the time.
 
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