degsme
Council Member
Ok time for another installment of the Weekly polling roundup. First off I'd like to start off with the comment from Redstate.com http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/2012/08/09/the-vice-presidential-stakes/
This is telling because we are just about 1/2 way between when the Obama campaign really pulled out the "long knives" by cutting Rubio off at the knees back in June 15, and the election. We have 12 weeks left. Of which 2 weeks of media news will be lost to the RNC and 2 to the DNC. Plus another 2 weeks net for the 3 debates and the various pre and post mortems. So we have roughly 8 weeks of actual campaigning left.
So here is what we have:
And ALL THREE have Obama Job ratings as NET POSITIVE... For Fox News this is a FIVE POINT UPTICK
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Ok now onto the Electoral College Scoreboard. Rassy puts it at Obama 247 Romney 206 with an 85 vote toss up. I think that's generaous to Romney
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
FiveThirtyEight shows Obama at 302-236 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ in the Current view and 304/234 in the final outcome. Worse yet this is a 6% divergent trend for both candidates. And it shows Obama with a solid win in MICH, OH, WI, PA and NM. with a lead in CO.
Here's the kicker from the Five38 analysis
And that plays into what we are seeing on Intrade With Romney at 38.8 (after bottoming at 38 and almost breaking out of THE BOTTOM of his "Bollinger Band" with a net average NEGATIVE Momenturm (albeit very slight)
vs.
Obama at 98.9 after peaking at 59.5 and almost breaking out of the TOP of his band. witha net average POSITIVE Momentum. (Charts are elow)
When Even Redstate.com suggests polls are not going yoru way - you have work to do
This is telling because we are just about 1/2 way between when the Obama campaign really pulled out the "long knives" by cutting Rubio off at the knees back in June 15, and the election. We have 12 weeks left. Of which 2 weeks of media news will be lost to the RNC and 2 to the DNC. Plus another 2 weeks net for the 3 debates and the various pre and post mortems. So we have roughly 8 weeks of actual campaigning left.
So here is what we have:
- Head to Head
Obama gets a 76% rating for favoring the Middle or bottom third Romney gets 29%.
For the middle class its 42:27... That's not good since that's where the majority of the electorate is.
And 63% want Romney to release more tax returns http://pollingreport.com/wh12.htm
On various issues in the Fox News poll, Romney ONLY beats Obama outside MoE in the "Reduce the Deficit" category. Eertyhing else goes to a Tie r to Obama. Obama even wins the
"Helping people Achieve the American Dream" by almost 3 times the MOE (47/39) - Economy
Only 39% of the voting public believes the economy is "still in a downturn" http://pollingreport.com/consumer2.htm And that includes Fox News polling.
Worse yet, 45% now thinks the Country woudl be better off if Dems controlled Congress v.s 39% for GOP. This is a significant upward tick for the Dems., thuogh at the individual district level it is literally 50/50 (ok 46/46) http://pollingreport.com/cong2012.htm - If the Election Were Held Today
Now it tarts to get really ugly. CNN puts Obama at 52/45 vs. Romney
Fox News puts it at 49/40 Obama vs. Romney http://pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm
In both cases a significant upward move for Obama and a 1% loss for Romney. This suggests Romney has plateaued.
Gallup Daily Tracking still puts it at Even Steven http://pollingreport.com/wh12gent.htm But we know Daily Tracking polls are late by about a week.
Rassy puts it at Romney 47 Obama 43%... but that's not all that reliable, Particularly since 10% are undecided or want someone else. - Obama Approval
And now the truly grim news shows up for Romney. Obama Job Approval is at 50% on CNN and 49% for Fox and Reuters.
And ALL THREE have Obama Job ratings as NET POSITIVE... For Fox News this is a FIVE POINT UPTICK
[/list]
Ok now onto the Electoral College Scoreboard. Rassy puts it at Obama 247 Romney 206 with an 85 vote toss up. I think that's generaous to Romney
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
FiveThirtyEight shows Obama at 302-236 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ in the Current view and 304/234 in the final outcome. Worse yet this is a 6% divergent trend for both candidates. And it shows Obama with a solid win in MICH, OH, WI, PA and NM. with a lead in CO.
Here's the kicker from the Five38 analysis
And that plays into what we are seeing on Intrade With Romney at 38.8 (after bottoming at 38 and almost breaking out of THE BOTTOM of his "Bollinger Band" with a net average NEGATIVE Momenturm (albeit very slight)
vs.
Obama at 98.9 after peaking at 59.5 and almost breaking out of the TOP of his band. witha net average POSITIVE Momentum. (Charts are elow)
When Even Redstate.com suggests polls are not going yoru way - you have work to do
