imreallyperplexed
Council Member
My guess is that there are very few if any undecideds left on PJ. But I thought that I would test things out and see.
Post-Convention Presidential Poll
- Thread starter imreallyperplexed
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imreallyperplexed
Council Member
So far, it looks like I was right. Most everyone on PJ has already made up their mind. (That should make for a colorful 2 months.)
That was part of the discussion regarding the convention bounces; there simply wasn't a vast area of empty political space for movement. With polls showing 95% or so in one camp or the other, a 5 point bounce includes the entire rest of the voting block.
It's funny how political math works. A 50-50 split is seen as an intractably divided populace...a 52-48 split a big win and a 55-45 split a massive mandate. But that 55-45 split still looks pretty divided to me...
imreallyperplexed
Council Member
Well, I think that most folks on PJ are hardened in their choices. I actually think that this may not reflect what is actually going on. I actually think that about 70-75% of Obama supporters are "hard" Obama supporters meaning they say that they will vote for Obama now and will carry through. I think that the same is true for Romney (roughly). I do think that there really are only about 5% undecideds who really haven't thought about it. But I think that there are roughly 20-25% of Obama and Romney supporters who will tell pollsters that they intend to vote for one or the other but who might change their mind over the next couple of months. These are "tepid" supporters. These are the folks that hold the key to this election. I think that most of these voters are somewhat disappointed in Obama but do not like or trust Romney but could switch preferences. Currently, I think that this is probably about evenly divided. I do think that in the current climate Obama has the electoral vote advantage. However, if there is a significant shift in the soft/disaffected vote, you could see a narrow Romney victory (if the shift goes to Romney) or a healthy (at least in terms of electoral votes) Obama victory (if the shift goes to Obama).
However, soft-squishy is difficult to follow. That is one reason that polls do shift over time. It is not just tryly undecideds making up their minds but the supposedly decideds changing their minds.
BTW, the Carter/Reagan election of 1980 is an excellent case in point. Carter and Reagan had only one debate and that debate was held one week before the election. Prior to the debate, Carter, despite being much more unpopular than Obama is currently, was neck-in-neck with Reagan (or slightly ahead) in the polls. However, Reagan crushed Carter in the debate (and that is when he first asked "are you better off?") There was a chartable major shift from Carter to Reagan over the next week and the rest is history. I don't expect anything that dramatic in 2012. But I do think that there is probably more room to get people to switch than you might think from listening to the media.
And that is not that surprising is that the media does get fooled on election day on a regular basis (though not always.)
Nevertheless, I think that most PJers are pretty hardened in their views. I know that I am and I think that most of the other Obama supporters are as well. And I think that the cons are equally determined to vote for Romney.
However, soft-squishy is difficult to follow. That is one reason that polls do shift over time. It is not just tryly undecideds making up their minds but the supposedly decideds changing their minds.
BTW, the Carter/Reagan election of 1980 is an excellent case in point. Carter and Reagan had only one debate and that debate was held one week before the election. Prior to the debate, Carter, despite being much more unpopular than Obama is currently, was neck-in-neck with Reagan (or slightly ahead) in the polls. However, Reagan crushed Carter in the debate (and that is when he first asked "are you better off?") There was a chartable major shift from Carter to Reagan over the next week and the rest is history. I don't expect anything that dramatic in 2012. But I do think that there is probably more room to get people to switch than you might think from listening to the media.
And that is not that surprising is that the media does get fooled on election day on a regular basis (though not always.)
Nevertheless, I think that most PJers are pretty hardened in their views. I know that I am and I think that most of the other Obama supporters are as well. And I think that the cons are equally determined to vote for Romney.
Days
Commentator
I'm not undecided, I will bother to vote if Ron Paul makes it onto the ballot.
interesting take on American politics by a Brit
interesting take on American politics by a Brit
GordonGecko
President
Interesting thing is....all the PJ Right who declare "Obama is toast" or even "Romney in a landslide"....but who won't bet any MONEY on it (InTrade, sports books, etc.)
I freely admit the President could lose...but our local Right seems incapable of even admitting the possibility that Romney could lose.
I freely admit the President could lose...but our local Right seems incapable of even admitting the possibility that Romney could lose.
imreallyperplexed
Council Member
The fact that they won't admit that Romney might lose indicates to me that there are going to be lots of stories about conspiracies and stolen elections if Romney does lose.
The election is still close. But I do think that Obama is ahead on points going into the 10th round. If anyone is going to get a knockout, it will be a 14th or 15th round knockout.
The election is still close. But I do think that Obama is ahead on points going into the 10th round. If anyone is going to get a knockout, it will be a 14th or 15th round knockout.
GordonGecko
President
It goes without saying that if the President wins...within nano-seconds of Fox News (none other before FNC) calls it for him...
that half (or more) of the blogging Right will already be posting about "ACORN" "Black Panthers" and naturally "voter fraud".
The remainder will do their "Fox & The Grapes" routine of "So? He'll get nothing more passed. The GOP Congress will block him!" and suddenly "magically" discover that America is not "doomed" by another 4 years of the Obama Administration.
And of course BOTH contingents will be talking "Impeachment!!!!!!" within six months of the Inauguration.
imreallyperplexed
Council Member
GG,
What do you think that the righties would do if Romney actually won?
What do you think that the righties would do if Romney actually won?
It goes without saying that if the President wins...within nano-seconds of Fox News (none other before FNC) calls it for him...
that half (or more) of the blogging Right will already be posting about "ACORN" "Black Panthers" and naturally "voter fraud".
The remainder will do their "Fox & The Grapes" routine of "So? He'll get nothing more passed. The GOP Congress will block him!" and suddenly "magically" discover that America is not "doomed" by another 4 years of the Obama Administration.
And of course BOTH contingents will be talking "Impeachment!!!!!!" within six months of the Inauguration.
