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Powerball

American Patriot

American Patriot

Mayor
If you have not noticed the Powerball jackpot is now over 500 million dollars. Like WOW. I have never been a gambler but I had to buy a few tickets. I saw where if there is a single winner that winner will get one check for about 330 million dollars, that is over a quarter of a billion dollars. That is a rather large stack of cash in any denomination.
I told my wife I had bought some tickets and she said I had wasted my money. This may be so, but someone will win. Like the man said, you gotta be in it to win it. I was thinking about what I would actually do with that much money and it was mind boggling. I would of course pay off all my debt. I think I would give ten percent to a charity of some kind. I would get my wife that fancy sewing machine she has always wanted, the one that does all that fancy embroidery and just about anything else a sewing machine can do. I would build or buy a really nice house on the lake here with a swimming pool, always wanted a swimming pool of my own. It would have to have a game room too. With a pool table, ping pong table, real big screen TV and a bar, so when my buddies came over we could watch the game and drink some beers. Might get a Corvette, always wanted a Corvette never could afford one. A new fishing boat would be nice too, not too fancy, just something really practical. Like to have one of those big fancy stainless steel outdoor grills too, those are real nice, and I love to cook on the grill. I would get my wife a new car she probably would get a Toyota or something like that. I always wanted to go on a really nice cruise, you know, first class and have a real good time. Might even buy some new clothes and a Rolex watch, never owned a Rolex but they are something everyone notices. I would hire a lawn service and get a maid and a cook so my wife would not have to lift a finger unless she wanted too. I think I would take half of it and invest it in an annuity or something after I got a really good accountant. Then I guess I would just go fishing, drive the boat around, ride my motorcycle and have parties and pig pickin's for all my friends, with live music. Tool around in my new Corvette and enjoy life. Might even get me a box of those cigars I really like but cannot afford.
I would get all my friends some really nice Christmas presents and I would buy my best friend Joe that new Harley-Davidson he wants. Always wanted to get my pilot's license, might do that to. My wife would probably want some new furniture for the house, almost forgot she would have her very own sewing and crafts room, she would like that
Just wondering, but what would you do with that much money?
 
So lets look at this. At $2/ticket and a 1/175,000,000 chance of winning the "Dollar Cost" is $1/350,000,000. And the "cash out" payoff is $375,000,000 http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20121127&id=15832422&ocid=ansmony11

So that's a whopping $1.07 payoff. Hint - the Stock Market is a better investment - Turns out I guess the notion that Lotteries are a "dumb tax" or an "innumeracy tax" still holds true


But lets look more closely at what AP has suggested he will do: Namely engage in conspicuous consumption of Veblen Goods ("A Rolex [is] something everyone notices")
ie product for which demand goes up as price goes up - but which are fundamentally very inefficient economic expenditures. Notice also how AP's focus is not on wisely
reinvesting his assets and efficiently manageing them. Instead his focuss would be in "tool[ing] around ... and enjoy[ing] life"
Now there is nothing inherently wrong in doing that. But it is AP who among others has been lecturing us on how the Wealthy are "Job Creators" in their attention to their investments.

I think it is useful to once again remind ourselves that CALPERS - which is only one middle class pension plan, in only one industry, in only one state, has more invested in the job creating investments,than the TOP TEN WEALTHIEST AMERCIANS PUT TOGETHER"
 
degsme said:
So lets look at this. At $2/ticket and a 1/175,000,000 chance of winning the "Dollar Cost" is $1/350,000,000. And the "cash out" payoff is $375,000,000 http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20121127&id=15832422&ocid=ansmony11

So that's a whopping $1.07 payoff. Hint - the Stock Market is a better investment - Turns out I guess the notion that Lotteries are a "dumb tax" or an "innumeracy tax" still holds true


But lets look more closely at what AP has suggested he will do: Namely engage in conspicuous consumption of Veblen Goods ("A Rolex [is] something everyone notices")
ie product for which demand goes up as price goes up - but which are fundamentally very inefficient economic expenditures. Notice also how AP's focus is not on wisely
reinvesting his assets and efficiently manageing them. Instead his focuss would be in "tool[ing] around ... and enjoy[ing] life"
Now there is nothing inherently wrong in doing that. But it is AP who among others has been lecturing us on how the Wealthy are "Job Creators" in their attention to their investments.

I think it is useful to once again remind ourselves that CALPERS - which is only one middle class pension plan, in only one industry, in only one state, has more invested in the job creating investments,than the TOP TEN WEALTHIEST AMERCIANS PUT TOGETHER"
Click to expand...

Hey, if he wins he could hob nob with Mitt and Ann and maybe Mitt could tell him where to stash his money so he doesn't have to pay income tax on it. YOU PEOPLE don't know what's important. :)
 
The left trait, negative vibes, always the negative vibes. You people must be a riot at a party. I got my ticket Patriot and guess what two people I won't be sharing the winning with.

ORR
 
Old Ridge Runner said:
The left trait, negative vibes, always the negative vibes. You people must be a riot at a party. I got my ticket Patriot and guess what two people I won't be sharing the winning with.

ORR
Click to expand...
What "negative vibes"? I just did a straightforward math analysis that showed that AP's wife was right.

and then I simply held AP up to the standards he himself has professed (as have you). Or are you saying that if you had $200 mil in the bank, you would spend your daily hours making sure it is invested as efficiently as possible?
 
NinaS said:
Hey, if he wins he could hob nob with Mitt and Ann and maybe Mitt could tell him where to stash his money so he doesn't have to pay income tax on it. YOU PEOPLE don't know what's important. :)
Click to expand...

LOL!! That's exactly what i would PRETEND to do. Then (before he noticed) i would buy him, sell him, and then flick him over into the dustbin of history.

He'd end up at some Safeway in Ohio! :)

http://www.theonion.com/articles/filthy-mitt-romney-delivers-campaign-speech-to-aud,30522/
 
Even though you know the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot aren't good, you probably bought a ticket (or a few dozen of them) anyway.

But just how bad are the odds of any single ticket winning the big prize? 1 in 175,223,510, to be precise -- less than the odds of someone becoming president of the United States or being born with an extra finger or toe.

Here are 11 things -- some good, some not so good -- more likely to happen than your numbers coming up gold:
Click to expand...

I like #7 and #8...
 
degsme said:
So lets look at this. At $2/ticket and a 1/175,000,000 chance of winning the "Dollar Cost" is $1/350,000,000. And the "cash out" payoff is $375,000,000 http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20121127&id=15832422&ocid=ansmony11

So that's a whopping $1.07 payoff. Hint - the Stock Market is a better investment - Turns out I guess the notion that Lotteries are a "dumb tax" or an "innumeracy tax" still holds true


But lets look more closely at what AP has suggested he will do: Namely engage in conspicuous consumption of Veblen Goods ("A Rolex [is] something everyone notices")
ie product for which demand goes up as price goes up - but which are fundamentally very inefficient economic expenditures. Notice also how AP's focus is not on wisely
reinvesting his assets and efficiently manageing them. Instead his focuss would be in "tool[ing] around ... and enjoy[ing] life"
Now there is nothing inherently wrong in doing that. But it is AP who among others has been lecturing us on how the Wealthy are "Job Creators" in their attention to their investments.

I think it is useful to once again remind ourselves that CALPERS - which is only one middle class pension plan, in only one industry, in only one state, has more invested in the job creating investments,than the TOP TEN WEALTHIEST AMERCIANS PUT TOGETHER"
Click to expand...

But what you care about is the expected value. Using P1 x V1 + P2 x V2, I get an expected value per $2 ticket of $2.33. That makes it a decent buy. And, realistically, $2 in the stock market isn't going to give you a huge return.
 
After I set up trusts for all those that I love, I would spend as much as I could making as many lives as I could better. Scholarships, Charities, research.

You know...put it where it could actually benefit others.
 
BrianDamage said:
But what you care about is the expected value.
Click to expand...

Not really. When I took decision theory 25+ years ago, the texts discussed scenarios where the probability is very (qualitative term) low and potental rewards very high. The mathematical concept of ER has no real meaning here. For single decision purposes, you can consider such a low probability of winning to be zero. Therefore, you realistically expect to gain nothing but pay a cost.
 
Corruptbuddha said:
After I set up trusts for all those that I love, I would spend as much as I could making as many lives as I could better. Scholarships, Charities, research.

You know...put it where it could actually benefit others.
Click to expand...

You're a mildly misguided but generally good man CB.

Ditto, but i would definitely splurge on an exotic car, a nice (but not extravagant) home with a view, some help, and a lot of travel.

Hey, i ain't Gandhi okay? ;-)
 
TwoWitnesses said:
You can't afford $2? Gotta be in it to win it....
Click to expand...

Its a terrrible payout. Note that given that since it has sold some 150 million tickets the likelihood of a split winner is very very high. Which means that your ROI is well under 3%. You can do better in a bank
 
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