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Presidents and Property Crime

Arkady

President
As part of my ongoing series comparing Democratic presidential eras to Republican ones (previous entries were deficits, murder, stock performance, job creation, poverty, incomes, productivity, hourly wages, weekly wages, incarceration, violent crime, and GDP growth), here's another bit of number crunching -- the change in property crime by presidential era. Here is the total percentage growth in number of property crimes for each Democratic and Republican presidential eras:

Kennedy/Johnson 97.9%
Carter 16.6%
Clinton -18.6%
Obama -15.3%

Nixon/Ford 68.9%
Reagan/Bush 3.7%
GW Bush -15.3%

Calculating those in sequence, you get a 59.2% increase under the Democrats in 26 years and a 68.0% increase under the Republicans in 28 years. So, property crime's been rising at an annualized rate of 1.59% under Democrats and 1.68% under Republicans.

So far, that's thirteen socioeconomic indicators and, so far, each has shown better trends under Democratic presidents than Republican ones.
 
As part of my ongoing series comparing Democratic presidential eras to Republican ones (previous entries were deficits, murder, stock performance, job creation, poverty, incomes, productivity, hourly wages, weekly wages, incarceration, violent crime, and GDP growth), here's another bit of number crunching -- the change in property crime by presidential era. Here is the total percentage growth in number of property crimes for each Democratic and Republican presidential eras:

Kennedy/Johnson 97.9%
Carter 16.6%
Clinton -18.6%
Obama -15.3%

Nixon/Ford 68.9%
Reagan/Bush 3.7%
GW Bush -15.3%

Calculating those in sequence, you get a 59.2% increase under the Democrats in 26 years and a 68.0% increase under the Republicans in 28 years. So, property crime's been rising at an annualized rate of 1.59% under Democrats and 1.68% under Republicans.

So far, that's thirteen socioeconomic indicators and, so far, each has shown better trends under Democratic presidents than Republican ones.

Yes, if your incarceration rate leaves out the biggest atrocity of the 20th century, the incarceration of Japanese-Americans, Democrat presidents have a lower incarceration rate.

You voiced how bad it was to take away someone's freedom, yet left out FDR's internment camps that incarcerated 120,000 innocent people. Why do you think you or your silly series has a shred of credibility after such a massive lie of omission?

And here you go yet again, crowing about a 0.09% difference between the two parties- assuming you haven't once again concealed relevant information.

Sorry, but your whole "series" is a complete joke.
 
Yes, if your incarceration rate leaves out the biggest atrocity of the 20th century, the incarceration of Japanese-Americans, Democrat presidents have a lower incarceration rate.

If you'd like to recalculate by including Japanese internment, feel free. You'll want to devise some new statistical method, though, since obviously it wouldn't show up in the method I used, since I was comparing incarceration from the start and end dates for each presidential era, and WWII internment was over before Truman left office. Also, I can't see a justification for counting Japanese internment but not other WWII-era internees (Germans, and Italians), so if you recalculate, you should probably factor those in, as well. And once we open the door to war-related internment, there's also going to be the issue of how to treat POWs and other detainees of that sort. But, if you'd like to take that on, you're free to post your results.

Why do you think you or your silly series has a shred of credibility after such a massive lie of omission?

You don't seem to understand what a lie is. You seem to think it means "failing to undermine an argument that makes me uncomfortable." It doesn't. I provided a calculation using the best data source I could find for incarceration. If you have something better, or believe it would be better to calculate the data in some other way (for example, maybe we should only consider federal prisoners, or maybe we should count those exiled by INS, etc.), that's fine. But the fact you would count different things doesn't make the way I did it a lie. I was open and honest about my sources and my method.
 
If you'd like to recalculate by including Japanese internment, feel free. You'll want to devise some new statistical method, though, since obviously it wouldn't show up in the method I used, since I was comparing incarceration from the start and end dates for each presidential era, and WWII internment was over before Truman left office. Also, I can't see a justification for counting Japanese internment but not other WWII-era internees (Germans, and Italians), so if you recalculate, you should probably factor those in, as well. And once we open the door to war-related internment, there's also going to be the issue of how to treat POWs and other detainees of that sort. But, if you'd like to take that on, you're free to post your results.



You don't seem to understand what a lie is. You seem to think it means "failing to undermine an argument that makes me uncomfortable." It doesn't. I provided a calculation using the best data source I could find for incarceration. If you have something better, or believe it would be better to calculate the data in some other way (for example, maybe we should only consider federal prisoners, or maybe we should count those exiled by INS, etc.), that's fine. But the fact you would count different things doesn't make the way I did it a lie. I was open and honest about my sources and my method.

There's no need to "recalculate": everyone can already see your series a laughable.

Now as far as a lie, I believe you did lie somewhere in your ranting and raving. You said:

"I care about our epidemic of incarceration. Lots of people do. In fact, anyone with an honest concern for freedom will care, since, short of capital punishment, incarceration is the ultimate example of government deliberately taking people's freedom away."

If that were true, you would have surely thought about the greatest atrocity on US soil in the 29th century. Not only did FDR incarcerate over 100,000 people without due process, he seized their land and other property.

So either you intentionally left it out or you're lying about caring about incarceration.

Now- I've noticed you haven't included war deaths in your "series". So let's summarize, shall we?

It is your position that if we leave out false imprisonment, seizure of property without due process and deaths from war, Democrats are really much better than Republicans! Of course, it should be noted that these issues are among the most basic of rights in America: the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

These areas you have left out and lied about also happen to be a direct responsibility of government. Take your babbling about property crime, for example. Who is responsible for property crime? I say it's the perpetrators. You of course would argue it's those goddamn Republicans. All the while, you ignore the atrocities and war deaths of Democrats. There's really only one thing left to say:

crying-laughter-smiley-emoticon.gif
 
Looking forward to your upcoming posts on Presidents and Gun Sales, Presidents and Police Shootings, Presidents and National Debt, and Presidents and Welfare Recipients.
 
There's no need to "recalculate"

If you substitute the word "ability" for the word "need," that sums up the situation better. You're welcome to criticize the data or the methods I use, but if you have nothing better, it just comes across as whining.

If that were true, you would have surely thought about the greatest atrocity on US soil in the 29th century.

Having no time machine, I'm unable to do that. If you mean the greatest atrocity on US soil in the 20th century, I don't think I'd treat the internment of Japanese Americans as that. Yes, it was an atrocity. But it was relatively short term and not particularly brutal. I'd call Jim Crow the greatest atrocity of the 20th century. It affected far more people for much, much longer. It included not just systematic denial of people's fundamental rights on a daily basis for decades on end, but also a terror campaign of lynchings of blacks that the government largely turned a blind eye to -- almost 2000 lynchings of blacks just in the first third of the 20th century. And once you start considering the indirect killings, by way of the brutal poverty blacks lived in for much of the 20th century, with the malign neglect of government, the death toll winds up being staggering.

Now- I've noticed you haven't included war deaths in your "series". So let's summarize, shall we?

By all means, please do those calculations, if you have a good data source. I've been reluctant to take it on, because I'm trying to avoid any cherry-picking, by going back to the earliest point for which I have good data, and in the case of war deaths, that is going to mean going back at least to Lincoln (the first Republican president, and thus the natural place to start the comparison). Do we count all those killed on both sides of the Civil War, or just the Union? Do we count civilian dead, too? And how do we deal with the various skirmishes with Native Americans that could be counted as wars or something less than war? If you've got a good way to crunch those numbers, please do so.

These areas you have left out and lied about

I'm not sure if it's because right-wingers are so dishonest themselves, or what it is, but they're very quick to call things lies that plainly aren't lies. I didn't lie about anything. I told you the data source I was using, the method I was using, and the results of using that method on the data source, and I was honest in all of that. If you prefer to focus on some other data source, or use some other method, that's fine. But your alternate preference doesn't transform what I did into a lie.
 
Looking forward to your upcoming posts on Presidents and Gun Sales, Presidents and Police Shootings, Presidents and National Debt, and Presidents and Welfare Recipients.
I can do national debt, since I've got good data for that. Do you have good data, by year, for the others?
 
If you substitute the word "ability" for the word "need," that sums up the situation better. You're welcome to criticize the data or the methods I use, but if you have nothing better, it just comes across as whining.

No, you know nothing about me. I do similar calculations quite a bit when deciding on real estate purchases and later tracking various categories of expenses and profits- as individual units and in the aggregate. I have no interest in doing them here. I simply enjoy debunking your statistics. It's clear you are becoming emotional and lashing out. So let's be clear: when I debunk your statistics, I am under no obligation to recalculate them for you. Got it?

Having no time machine, I'm unable to do that. If you mean the greatest atrocity on US soil in the 20th century, I don't think I'd treat the internment of Japanese Americans as that. Yes, it was an atrocity. But it was relatively short term and not particularly brutal. I'd call Jim Crow the greatest atrocity of the 20th century. It affected far more people for much, much longer. It included not just systematic denial of people's fundamental rights on a daily basis for decades on end, but also a terror campaign of lynchings of blacks that the government largely turned a blind eye to -- almost 2000 lynchings of blacks just in the first third of the 20th century. And once you start considering the indirect killings, by way of the brutal poverty blacks lived in for much of the 20th century, with the malign neglect of government, the death toll winds up being staggering.

If you think the Democrats' Jim Crow era was a bigger atrocity, good for you. I wasn't expecting you to help me make an even bigger case against Democrats regarding the systematic taking of fundamental rights. Consider this a hat tip to you, thanks!!!

By all means, please do those calculations, if you have a good data source. I've been reluctant to take it on, because I'm trying to avoid any cherry-picking, by going back to the earliest point for which I have good data, and in the case of war deaths, that is going to mean going back at least to Lincoln (the first Republican president, and thus the natural place to start the comparison). Do we count all those killed on both sides of the Civil War, or just the Union? Do we count civilian dead, too? And how do we deal with the various skirmishes with Native Americans that could be counted as wars or something less than war? If you've got a good way to crunch those numbers, please do so.

I see.... so depending on the issue, you choose different numbers of decades to go back. Thanks for admitting yet another flaw with your "logic"- selective recall.

I'm not sure if it's because right-wingers are so dishonest themselves, or what it is, but they're very quick to call things lies that plainly aren't lies. I didn't lie about anything. I told you the data source I was using, the method I was using, and the results of using that method on the data source, and I was honest in all of that. If you prefer to focus on some other data source, or use some other method, that's fine. But your alternate preference doesn't transform what I did into a lie.

So you assert you "forgot" about FDR wrongly incarcerating 120,000 people when you created your post on incarceration rates. Very convenient, no?

But hey, look on the bright side! Since FDR increased incarceration rates by 40%, either he or Truman reduced them by the same number of wrongly incarcerated people. You should brag about how Truman had the highest decrease in incarceration and pretend it wasn't because FDR committed atrocities against people here in the US.

Oops, it looks like we've stepped onto another flaw in the entire premise of your "series" of simple-minded rants, yes?
 
Do you have good data, by year, for the others?

Sure, and so do you. But you won't post it, because it contradicts your DNC mandate.

Amazingly, you seem not to realize how incredibly transparent you are. I know you're quite naive and intellectually cloistered, but this is a stretch even for you.
 
No, you know nothing about me. I do similar calculations quite a bit when deciding on real estate purchases and later tracking various categories of expenses and profits- as individual units and in the aggregate. I have no interest in doing them here. I simply enjoy debunking your statistics. It's clear you are becoming emotional and lashing out. So let's be clear: when I debunk your statistics, I am under no obligation to recalculate them for you. Got it?

I'll keep that in mind if you ever debunk my statistics. For now, though, all we have is your persistent whining about which assumptions and methods I use.

If you think the Democrats' Jim Crow era was a bigger atrocity, good for you. I wasn't expecting you to help me make an even bigger case against Democrats regarding the systematic taking of fundamental rights. Consider this a hat tip to you, thanks!!!

There's no question that in the first part of the 20th century the Democrats were by far the worse party. They were the party of southern, white, rural, religious conservatives, who cloaked their white supremacy behind the fig leaf of states rights and anti-big-government rhetoric. That same description now applies to one of the two parties, but it's not the Democrats.

I see.... so depending on the issue, you choose different numbers of decades to go back.

Quite the opposite. In order to prevent myself from cherry-picking, I don't make any choices with regard to how far to go back -- I find the best data source I can and go back to the start of the data source, whenever that happens to be. If it runs back to the 1920s, I calculate from there. If it only goes back to the 1970s, that's the start of my calculation.

So you assert you "forgot" about FDR wrongly incarcerating 120,000 people when you created your post on incarceration rates.

Do you see those two inverted commas before and after the word "forgot"? They're called quotation marks. They actually mean something. When you're using them the way you just did, it implies you're quoting me, which, as you know, you weren't. In fact, not only did I not assert I "forgot" about those detentions, I didn't say anything that could be reasonably paraphrased that way. Rather, I explained that I calculated based on the data source I had. I have no idea whether that data source included or didn't include those particular detentions among the incarcerated. But, given my statistical method, it made absolutely no difference either way, since the detentions started after the beginning of the FDR/Truman era and ended before its end, and so they wouldn't have shown up in the growth of incarceration for the period, whether they were counted or not.

Note, my method here isn't one of selective inclusion and exclusion. I specifically avoid doing that. For example, in 2001, 3000 American were murdered in the 9/11 attacks. I know that they were not counted by the FBI in the murder stats for that year. If my purpose had been to make Bush look worse, I could have added them back into the stats for that year and come up with an averaging method that would have factored them into the comparison. Using that altered method, I suspect I could show that average per capita murders on Bush's watch were greater than the murder rate he inherited (rather than the actual result I showed, which had murders declining a bit under Bush). But I didn't. I used the official data, as with every other calculation, and used the same method of calculating the delta from start to finish, as with every other calculation I did.
I could, of course, easily game the numbers to make the Republicans look worse by tailoring my data and my method from one calculation to the next that way. But I keep myself from doing so by taking the official data straight up, from the start of the data series, and applying a consistent statistical method to it. What you're whining about is that I didn't break from that for purposes of making FDR look worse, by altering methods to include some things into the incarceration rate that may not have been included.

Oops, it looks like we've stepped onto another flaw in the entire premise of your "series" of simple-minded rants, yes?

No. As you'll see above, what you did is gave me an opportunity to highlight the way I've been very consistent in my approach, to deny myself the opportunity to game the numbers. I could have gamed them to make the Republicans look worse, the same way you think I ought to have gamed them to make the Democrats look worse, but instead I calculated neutrally.
 
As part of my ongoing series comparing Democratic presidential eras to Republican ones (previous entries were deficits, murder, stock performance, job creation, poverty, incomes, productivity, hourly wages, weekly wages, incarceration, violent crime, and GDP growth), here's another bit of number crunching -- the change in property crime by presidential era. Here is the total percentage growth in number of property crimes for each Democratic and Republican presidential eras:

Kennedy/Johnson 97.9%
Carter 16.6%
Clinton -18.6%
Obama -15.3%

Nixon/Ford 68.9%
Reagan/Bush 3.7%
GW Bush -15.3%

Calculating those in sequence, you get a 59.2% increase under the Democrats in 26 years and a 68.0% increase under the Republicans in 28 years. So, property crime's been rising at an annualized rate of 1.59% under Democrats and 1.68% under Republicans.

So far, that's thirteen socioeconomic indicators and, so far, each has shown better trends under Democratic presidents than Republican ones.

1. Why was it so high under Kennedy and Johnson? What Democrat policies caused such high numbers?

2. Why is it that 66% of GOP presidents had lower numbers than Kennedy/Johnson/and Carter?

3. What GOP policies allowed for George W. Bush to have such low numbers?

Do explain.

:)
 
As part of my ongoing series comparing Democratic presidential eras to Republican ones (previous entries were deficits, murder, stock performance, job creation, poverty, incomes, productivity, hourly wages, weekly wages, incarceration, violent crime, and GDP growth), here's another bit of number crunching -- the change in property crime by presidential era. Here is the total percentage growth in number of property crimes for each Democratic and Republican presidential eras:

Kennedy/Johnson 97.9%
Carter 16.6%
Clinton -18.6%
Obama -15.3%

Nixon/Ford 68.9%
Reagan/Bush 3.7%
GW Bush -15.3%

Calculating those in sequence, you get a 59.2% increase under the Democrats in 26 years and a 68.0% increase under the Republicans in 28 years. So, property crime's been rising at an annualized rate of 1.59% under Democrats and 1.68% under Republicans.

So far, that's thirteen socioeconomic indicators and, so far, each has shown better trends under Democratic presidents than Republican ones.

Meanwhile, let's continue to look at bland, over-the-top numbers:

imrs.php


By the time Obama leaves office in 2017, the National Debt will be at 20 trillion, so his bar will be another quarter higher at a rise in 10 trillion.

Yet another indicator of how a modern Democrat president is bad for our country economically.

Now that I've dropped my intelligence to partake in your level of analysis, let me get back up to post-elementary school levels.

:)
 
1. Why was it so high under Kennedy and Johnson? What Democrat policies caused such high numbers?

2. Why is it that 66% of GOP presidents had lower numbers than Kennedy/Johnson/and Carter?

3. What GOP policies allowed for George W. Bush to have such low numbers?

Do explain.

:)
As explained elsewhere, I expect that there are multiple factors at work, and a major one is the demographic factor -- that is, age distributions. Some of those factors that hurt when it comes to crime stats, like having a disproportionate share of people in early adulthood, help when it comes to economic stats. So, it's more helpful to think of it in terms of long-term trends across multiple factors. The overall trend we see is that when Democrats have the White House the negative factors are lessened and the positive ones exaggerated. Thus, long-term, Democrats have tended to dominate across all of the various factors, even though some individual Democrats do poorly on some individual factors.
 
As explained elsewhere, I expect that there are multiple factors at work, and a major one is the demographic factor -- that is, age distributions. Some of those factors that hurt when it comes to crime stats, like having a disproportionate share of people in early adulthood, help when it comes to economic stats. So, it's more helpful to think of it in terms of long-term trends across multiple factors. The overall trend we see is that when Democrats have the White House the negative factors are lessened and the positive ones exaggerated. Thus, long-term, Democrats have tended to dominate across all of the various factors, even though some individual Democrats do poorly on some individual factors.

If Democrats were just better, then these large-percentage outliars wouldn't exist.

Yet, you have major examples of horrible results in the given data under Democrat leadership.

Meanwhile, there are major examples of good results under GOP leadership.

Thus, your claim isn't consistent enough to be reputable whatsoever. Or, at the very least, you'd have to address factors to explain things, which you refuse to do.. for obvious reasons.

Come on, you started a thread making big claims, and now it's time to back them up. You talk about how intelligent you are, but then ignore your intellect in practice. You've been called out! It's time to dance!

....
 
Meanwhile, let's continue to look at bland, over-the-top numbers:

imrs.php


By the time Obama leaves office in 2017, the National Debt will be at 20 trillion, so his bar will be another quarter higher at a rise in 10 trillion.

Yet another indicator of how a modern Democrat president is bad for our country economically.

Now that I've dropped my intelligence to partake in your level of analysis, let me get back up to post-elementary school levels.

:)
Aren't nonadjusted trillions of dollars kind of a dumb way to look at it? I mean, across almost any time and country the higher debt would tend to be later just thanks to inflation and overall economic growth.
 
If Democrats were just better, then these large-percentage outliars wouldn't exist.
There's no reason to think that. It would be like saying that if one diet is healthier than another then the person with the healthier diet would never be sicker than the one with the worse diet on even a single day. Just sort of silly.
 
I'll keep that in mind if you ever debunk my statistics. For now, though, all we have is your persistent whining about which assumptions and methods I use.

Your statistics on incarceration have already been debunked. Now it's just a matter of you having the integrity to admit it.

Do you see those two inverted commas before and after the word "forgot"? They're called quotation marks. They actually mean something. When you're using them the way you just did, it implies you're quoting me, which, as you know, you weren't.

I see I'll need to dumb this down for you. The quotation marks mean I think you're being dishonest somewhere along the line. I'll try rephrasing since you didn't get it the first time. You made a statement about how bad incarceration was. Yet when posting statistics on FDR and incarceration, you "forgot" to include him raising the incarceration rate by 40%. So either you're lying about caring about incarceration, completely ignorant about history, or simply chose to give FDR a pass on a major atrocity of the 20th century (to accommodate your whining about Democrats' Jim Crow era). You could very well have included the 911 attack deaths. Of course, that was an act of terrorism and classified differently than murder. However, locking up people is incarceration, whether through the legal process or the way FDR did it- without due process. Your attempt to equate the two is laughable.

As for the rest of your usual verbose tirades, it was all huff, puff and no substance.
 
There's no reason to think that. It would be like saying that if one diet is healthier than another then the person with the healthier diet would never be sicker than the one with the worse diet on even a single day. Just sort of silly.

So it's not Democrat policies that make lower numbers.. it's somehow Democrat presidential flesh?
 
Aren't nonadjusted trillions of dollars kind of a dumb way to look at it?

I think all of your surface-deep, drive-by posts in this "series" is as you describe here.

There are strengths and weaknesses to both Conservative and Liberal policies. I embrace that.

You can't.
 
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