Arkady
President
During most of the Bush era, the dollar fell apart. Relative to a trade-weighted basket of currencies, the greenback lost about a third of its value between his inauguration and mid-2008 (it rebounded a bit in those last few months of his presidency, as global panic about the financial meltdown scared people into moving their money into Treasuries). Ordinarily that kind of massive currency devaluation would have positives and negatives. On the negative side, it means Americans are poorer -- for those who traveled abroad in that period, the sticker shock was awful -- gone were the days when a middle-class American could live an upper-class lifestyle abroad. But on the positive side, a weak dollar is supposed to make US products cheap abroad, helping our exports, resulting in strong job creation. Yet, even as the dollar slumped, so did net exports, and it was one of the worst periods for job creation in American history. Our products were getting cheaper and cheaper, but nobody wanted them.
This was a bit of an economic mystery, but I think one plausible explanation is that US-branded products were increasingly burdened, in the Bush years, with a stigma caused by US behavior. From, say, the perspective of a Norwegian considering the purchase of a substantially similar Ford, Volkswagen, or Toyota, the Ford came pre-loaded with the baggage of US warmongering, torture, and climate change denialism. That made the Volkswagen and Toyota look like better options. Who wants to drive around in a Gitmobile?
It wasn't as conscious as, say, the "Freedom Fries" BS (when Republicans rebranded French fries to protest the French not wanting to invade Iraq until we were sure of our WMD suspicions). But in the same sense that a company's overall branding will impact the desirability of its products (e.g., causing you to pay a little extra for an Apple phone, or causing someone to steer clear of Ivanka fashions), a country's branding can do the same. Bush's America had enough of an image problem that we weren't able to capitalize on the usual benefits of a weakening dollar.
I worry that we'll face something similar today. After years of getting stronger under Obama, the dollar has weakened a bit under Trump (around 3%), but it looks like net exports are down. As in the Bush era, the US image among our key trading partners has gone to crap:
http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26...lics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/
The biggest buyers of US exports are Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, the UK, and Germany. Our image has gotten much worse in all of those that Pew surveyed:
The only place our image has gotten significantly better is Russia, which is a poor country that buys relatively little from the US -- to put it in perspective, Canada buys 46 times as much from us as Russia, so a shiny new image in Moscow isn't going to be much help for US exporters, whereas if America's image problem causes Canadians and Mexicans to look to European competitors, that will cost us.
This was a bit of an economic mystery, but I think one plausible explanation is that US-branded products were increasingly burdened, in the Bush years, with a stigma caused by US behavior. From, say, the perspective of a Norwegian considering the purchase of a substantially similar Ford, Volkswagen, or Toyota, the Ford came pre-loaded with the baggage of US warmongering, torture, and climate change denialism. That made the Volkswagen and Toyota look like better options. Who wants to drive around in a Gitmobile?
It wasn't as conscious as, say, the "Freedom Fries" BS (when Republicans rebranded French fries to protest the French not wanting to invade Iraq until we were sure of our WMD suspicions). But in the same sense that a company's overall branding will impact the desirability of its products (e.g., causing you to pay a little extra for an Apple phone, or causing someone to steer clear of Ivanka fashions), a country's branding can do the same. Bush's America had enough of an image problem that we weren't able to capitalize on the usual benefits of a weakening dollar.
I worry that we'll face something similar today. After years of getting stronger under Obama, the dollar has weakened a bit under Trump (around 3%), but it looks like net exports are down. As in the Bush era, the US image among our key trading partners has gone to crap:
http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26...lics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/
The biggest buyers of US exports are Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, the UK, and Germany. Our image has gotten much worse in all of those that Pew surveyed:
The only place our image has gotten significantly better is Russia, which is a poor country that buys relatively little from the US -- to put it in perspective, Canada buys 46 times as much from us as Russia, so a shiny new image in Moscow isn't going to be much help for US exporters, whereas if America's image problem causes Canadians and Mexicans to look to European competitors, that will cost us.
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