degsme
Council Member
The GOP's attack has been that somehow the polls are oversampling Democrats. The problem here is that the ONLY poll that is sampling democrats at the rate that conservatives would like to see, is Rassmussen. But rasmussen has a serious methodological flaw It basically does not sample voters under 35 in any manner proportional to their proportion of the total voting population because Rassy does not sample cell phones and over 50% of under 35s don't have a land lineBut even so we will lead off wtih Rassy this weekRassy is interesting in that it runs counter to the rest of the polls IN TWO Ways:In its daily tracker it puts Obama with a GREATER margin on Romney, than in the Swing states
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
And it essentially has Obama Romney tied: 47:46 Obama in the Daily Tracker and 46:46 in the swing statesBut this is an outlier poll. And a poll with a long history of getting it wrong Yes they had two accurate polls in the last 10 years, but even a broken clock is right twice per day
Since we are worried about organizations that are "liberal media" lets next look at Fox News http://pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm In a cross-sectional poll THROUGH 9/26.. Fox puts Obama at 48:43. a Solid 5 point lead
Next up is the "i'll Take Gallup"... which on its Daily Tracker at 50:44 http://pollingreport.com/wh12gent.htm And at 50% for the third day in a row. More interesting is to look back at where Obama was vs. McCain back in 2008. it was 48:44 http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/polling/index.html So in the daily Tracker, Obama is now TWO POINTS AHEAD of where he was with McCain
Gallups Job Approval http://pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm is now SIX DAYS of 50% or above for Obama. Which of course is the magic comparison that some of our friends have been citing as the necessary threshold for re-election
Ok onto the Bloomberg Poll that Conservatives have been touting because it shows Romney edging ahead of Obama on the Terrorism issue (which has almost no importance in the priorties of voters but ok) and we have http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQjgh_WBlvCk and Obama is 52:43 a solid 9 point lead.. Hey if you are going to claim one part is valid, you better have a reason to show other parts are not. Note that Obama gets 49% approval for his job as POTUS here as well
Now in Ipsos (which partners with overseas Reuters – hardly media that has a vested interest in Obama) we see Obama slip 2 points to 47:42 http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5798 but that’s also a 1 point slip for Romney, so its likely just statistical noise.
Then we have InTrade https://data.intrade.com/graphing/j...actId=743475&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com Romney is at 21.2% chance of winning. This is the lowest he’s been in OVER A YEAR For you conservatives who BELIEVE Romney will win, this is a fantastic investment opportunity: $1,000 now will put $2330 in your pocket in 5 weeks. That’s a $1330 profit. 1300% annual ROI. Go For it Dudes!!!
Finally we have our friend Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight doing this post with real statistical analysis: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/#more-35173 One thing Silver point out is that while it is true that the polls may be wrongly dinging Romney – it is ALSO possible they are wrongly dinging Obama. So at this point the model shows that the chance of Romney winning the popular vote (17%) is only about twice as large as the chance of an Obama LANDSLIDE (7%)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
And it essentially has Obama Romney tied: 47:46 Obama in the Daily Tracker and 46:46 in the swing statesBut this is an outlier poll. And a poll with a long history of getting it wrong Yes they had two accurate polls in the last 10 years, but even a broken clock is right twice per day
Since we are worried about organizations that are "liberal media" lets next look at Fox News http://pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm In a cross-sectional poll THROUGH 9/26.. Fox puts Obama at 48:43. a Solid 5 point lead
Next up is the "i'll Take Gallup"... which on its Daily Tracker at 50:44 http://pollingreport.com/wh12gent.htm And at 50% for the third day in a row. More interesting is to look back at where Obama was vs. McCain back in 2008. it was 48:44 http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/polling/index.html So in the daily Tracker, Obama is now TWO POINTS AHEAD of where he was with McCain
Gallups Job Approval http://pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm is now SIX DAYS of 50% or above for Obama. Which of course is the magic comparison that some of our friends have been citing as the necessary threshold for re-election
Ok onto the Bloomberg Poll that Conservatives have been touting because it shows Romney edging ahead of Obama on the Terrorism issue (which has almost no importance in the priorties of voters but ok) and we have http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQjgh_WBlvCk and Obama is 52:43 a solid 9 point lead.. Hey if you are going to claim one part is valid, you better have a reason to show other parts are not. Note that Obama gets 49% approval for his job as POTUS here as well
Now in Ipsos (which partners with overseas Reuters – hardly media that has a vested interest in Obama) we see Obama slip 2 points to 47:42 http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5798 but that’s also a 1 point slip for Romney, so its likely just statistical noise.
Then we have InTrade https://data.intrade.com/graphing/j...actId=743475&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com Romney is at 21.2% chance of winning. This is the lowest he’s been in OVER A YEAR For you conservatives who BELIEVE Romney will win, this is a fantastic investment opportunity: $1,000 now will put $2330 in your pocket in 5 weeks. That’s a $1330 profit. 1300% annual ROI. Go For it Dudes!!!
Finally we have our friend Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight doing this post with real statistical analysis: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/sept-27-the-impact-of-the-47-percent/#more-35173 One thing Silver point out is that while it is true that the polls may be wrongly dinging Romney – it is ALSO possible they are wrongly dinging Obama. So at this point the model shows that the chance of Romney winning the popular vote (17%) is only about twice as large as the chance of an Obama LANDSLIDE (7%)
