Weekly Polling Wrapup

[degsme]

Ok so here's the weekly polling Wrap up for the POTUS campaigns

First up Intrade... we've seen a dramatic convergence of the Bollinger Trading bands for both candidates. Essentially putting Obama's Win percentage at 53.25% and Romney's at 43.75% And both are solidly Plateaued



Then we have the various Polls
AP now puts the expectation of Obama winning at 56% vs. Romney's 35%.. Which is a SEVEN POINT JUMP for Obama since December http://pollingreport.com/wh12.htm
Pew puts it at 52:43,

ABC poll puts Obama's Economic Plan with a Two Margin of error lead on Romney's economic plan

That said the daily tracking polls http://pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm Still put it
neck and neck for Gallup
53:40 for Obama at Bloomberg
47:44 for AP (inside the Margin of Error)
50:46 for Pew
45:44 for Reuters (tie)
46:42 for CS Monitor (Obama has a 1 point lead outside the MoE)

Meanwhile FiveThirtyEight.com http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Now has the
EC College at 289.3: 243.7 for Obama
with a 62.6% chance of Winning but only by a 50.4% margin.

More importantly it has the "House Bias" numbers

 

[OldGaffer]

I am surprised at gallup

 

[bdtex]

I haven't been paying much attention to the polling. It's June. Been paying a lot of attention to events and the hot topics. Since Santorum dropped out,Pres. Obama has pretty much been able to dictate the topic focus. The last 2 weeks' events have been disastrous for Willard and GOPs and Willard gained nothing from his little tour in The Willard Coach.

 

[Dawg]

Do you deduct cost of ya sailing boat when doing ya taxes?

Let me guess, ya pay close to what 'O' pays in Income taxes-20.5%.............wait, maybe less.............

Polls suck..........remember Kerry exit polls..............

 

[degsme]

Do you deduct cost of ya sailing boat when doing ya taxes?

Even when I was campaigning to go the Syndey 2000 olympics, I was not being paid to sail so I could not count the $250k or so I spent on that as a "business expense"....