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We've seen some rather dramatic improvement in Pres. Obama's polls over the last....

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Senator
several days. Where are these people coming from? Are they "undecideds" who've now decided? Are they switchers-from-Mitt?

My guess is, that it isn't a whole lot of either. Most of Pres. Obama's newfound polling support comes from people who were intending to vote for him all along, but for a variety of reasons, were "holding fire" on giving him their polling vote. This was to be expected and just another example of those pesky "fundamentals" that convince people like me, that Mitt doesn't have one chance in hell, of winning in November.

For what it's worth, this phenomenon (specific to races that include an incumbent) is not unique to Obama nor to races with Democratic incumbents - ALTHOUGH, I think it's probably just a little more pronounced in the case of Democrats.
 
You are counting a temporary three point post convention polling bump as something significant? Significant enough to prove that Romney is going down in flames? Hmmmm . . . no!
 
Cicero said:
You are counting a temporary three point post convention polling bump as something significant? Significant enough to prove that Romney is going down in flames? Hmmmm . . . no!
Click to expand...

Hmmmm...And you're counting on an "insignificant" 3 point bounce as an indicator Obama is going down in flames.

Funny how that works.
 
Some folks purpose in life is to deflate and deenergize their opponents. It is called "woofing" and "trash talk." Some folks are very skilled trash talkers.

Craig said:
Hmmmm...And you're counting on an "insignificant" 3 point bounce as an indicator Obama is going down in flames.

Funny how that works.
Click to expand...
 
Considering that Obama entered office as a demi-god on earth -- from the way the press treated him and the leftwingers drooled over him -- dropping down in the polls to nearly even status with challenger Mitt Romney is very bad indeed for both Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.
 
Ole fashioned mobster politics by the Chicago Gang... the report a few days ago was Axelrod threatened Gallup when they were about to release a 48-43 poll showing Romney winning.

That's how election results (ala Wisconsin) always come out to be "unexpected".
 
Cicero said:
Considering that Obama entered office as a demi-god on earth -- from the way the press treated him and the leftwingers drooled over him -- dropping down in the polls to nearly even status with challenger Mitt Romney is very bad indeed for both Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.
Click to expand...

And I reiterate: After a solid 4+ years of the right attacking Obama as an abject failure (impeachment groups sprung up BEFORE he was inaugurated), a secret Muslim, an anti American Kenyan Marxist Commie Fascist Radical Blackman who never had a job paling around with terrorists and hell bent on destroying the nation...Obama is ahead of Romney.
 
Cicero said:
You are counting a temporary three point post convention polling bump as something significant? Significant enough to prove that Romney is going down in flames? Hmmmm . . . no!
Click to expand...

Yes since there was only a one point bump after the Republican Convention.
 
Were Obama any good as a president none of that would matter. None of the equivalent things mattered where Bill Clinton was concerned because he was a good enough president to handle the pressures and push his policies through with a republican congress that really did hate him and easily won re-election and I mean easily. Three wasn't any of this squeaking by stuff as with Obama in the polls. Clinton just walked away with it.

But no matter how you try to dress him up Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton. Barack Obama is an over-hyped Clown Prince with large floppy shoes that go Skink! Skink! as he walks.
 
Gasp! You mean that Mitt Romney is going to have to prove himself first just as if he were a-a challenger? Oh say it ain't so!

What none of you seem to be getting -- and probably because grasping that bit of reality would be very disturbing for you -- is that if Obama were actually any good as a president the gap between himself and Obama would be enormous. But then Obama was over-hyped by an adoring press back in 2008 and 2009 and now the entire nation knows it.
 
NCmusicman said:
Ole fashioned mobster politics by the Chicago Gang... the report a few days ago was Axelrod threatened Gallup when they were about to release a 48-43 poll showing Romney winning.

That's how election results (ala Wisconsin) always come out to be "unexpected".
Click to expand...

Well how about more than one poll

Panic on the Right?...can't blame them- per Gordon: My quote "there was some question on the Rasmussen today and I looked at the daily presidential checker and he is correct."

General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Rasmussen Reports

Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2


Reuters/Ipsos- Romney vs Obama

Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2


General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Gallup

Obama 48, Romney 45 Obama +3
 
Cicero said:
Were Obama any good as a president none of that would matter. None of the equivalent things mattered where Bill Clinton was concerned because he was a good enough president to handle the pressures and push his policies through with a republican congress that really did hate him and easily won re-election and I mean easily. Three wasn't any of this squeaking by stuff as with Obama in the polls. Clinton just walked away with it.

But no matter how you try to dress him up Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton. Barack Obama is an over-hyped Clown Prince with large floppy shoes that go Skink! Skink! as he walks.
Click to expand...

Obama is ahead...so it doesn't matter. 4 solid years of hate leveled against the man. Bill Clinton is old news. He's a distraction, he isn't running for President. Gingrich had not vowed to defeat Clinton...and had not based the entire Contract on an irascible and intransigent Congress dedicated to working against the President at all costs.

The EC doesn't look very squeaky...and I never tried to dress Obama in the slightest. Cintion is a non sequitur...and Mitt Romney remains behind an...abject failure. Romney remains behind...A Clown Prince. Doesn't say much for Romney, you must agree.
 
Obama got a 2-3 point +bounce from the convention so far. Romney got a 0.5 point +bounce. These numbers are the differences in Romney versus Obama RCP aggregte polling. That means they are conservative (as in cautious) numbers and represent minimums.

Bounces represent the receptivity of the public to the convention messaging in my opinion.

In terms of Obama job approval, the numbers are similar. Obama got a +2.8 point bounce in job approval according to RCP aggregate polling.

For those Democrats who wish to feel even better, take a look at the Gallup job approval numbers. According to Gallup, Obama's approval is 52-42.
 
But Bill Clinton said two things or significance on Wednesday.

First, he said that given the economic crash between September 18, 2008 and January 20, 2009, no previous President, not him, not Reagan, not Kennedy, not Eisehhower, not FDR would have had more success. He also essentially said that Obama's policies had provided the foundation for a healthy recovery in the next year or two. Now you can disagree with Clinton or think that he is lying for one reason or another. But that is what the Big Dog said.

Second, he said that Obama is cool on the outside but burns with a passion for this nation. I think that this is Clinton's way of saying that though his style and Obama's style were a little different that their motivation and committment were the same. He also clearly feels that Obama deserves reelection in 2012 just as much as he, Bill Clinton, deserved reelection in 1996.

Cicero said:
Were Obama any good as a president none of that would matter. None of the equivalent things mattered where Bill Clinton was concerned because he was a good enough president to handle the pressures and push his policies through with a republican congress that really did hate him and easily won re-election and I mean easily. Three wasn't any of this squeaking by stuff as with Obama in the polls. Clinton just walked away with it.

But no matter how you try to dress him up Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton. Barack Obama is an over-hyped Clown Prince with large floppy shoes that go Skink! Skink! as he walks.
Click to expand...
 
Cicero said:
Gasp! You mean that Mitt Romney is going to have to prove himself first just as if he were a-a challenger? Oh say it ain't so!

What none of you seem to be getting -- and probably because grasping that bit of reality would be very disturbing for you -- is that if Obama were actually any good as a president the gap between himself and Obama would be enormous. But then Obama was over-hyped by an adoring press back in 2008 and 2009 and now the entire nation knows it.
Click to expand...

Cicero, you are a master sophist (as I have told you in the past). In particular, you regularly equate the perceptions of the vast majority of the American people with your own particular viewpoint. I have to tell you that that does come across as hyperbolic. Believe it or not, you are not the "average American." You are simply Cicero the backyard pundit (like the rest of us on PJ).
 
hat none of you seem to be getting -- and probably because grasping that bit of reality would be very disturbing for you -- is that if Obama were actually any good as a president the gap between himself and Obama would be enormous.
Click to expand...

I assume you meant "the gap between himself and Romney would be enormous."

There's another way of looking at these numbers, Cicero. That is that with unemployment at +8% for 4 years, and with record deficits in FY2010-2013, Obama is leading Romney in national aggregate polls, and has for the last year. That's a remarkable defiance of political gravitation.

Even more troubling for Romney, is that Obama has an almost structural advantage in the electoral college. RCP has 221 EC votes in Obama's column, and 191 EC votes in Romney's column. According to RCP, there are 126 EC votes up for grabs. Among those 126 EC votes, Obama is leading in 106 EC votes.

If the election were held today, Obama would win the popular vote and the EC vote.

Supporters of the Citizens United decision such as yourself are going to be disappointed when popular democracy defeats elitist plutocracy.
 
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