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When Policy Goes Wrong

Arkady

President
Last week I posted about both public health and education. What I found fascinating is how closely the two issues tracked. In both cases, the US trailed other wealthy nations, but in both cases there was a huge disparity between the best US states (which would rank among the top nations), and the worst (with rankings that sometimes put them alongside poverty-stricken third-world nations). And, interestingly, the successes and failures on the two lists were mostly identical. The states that do well are, for the most part, deep-blue states (plus, oddly, Utah), while the states that do poorly are the deep red states. Internationally, the leading countries tend to be liberal ones, as well (Northern and Western Continental Europe, plus Canada and Japan), while the countries that do poorly tend to be conservative.

If you take a look at social and economic mobility stats, you'll see the same pattern:

http://www.salon.com/2013/07/22/blue_states_are_better_for_upward_mobility/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_mobility
http://www.verisi.com/resources/prosperity-upward-mobility.htm

Within the US, the places where the bad luck of being born poor matters least include cities in the deep blue states (plus, oddly Utah), while internationally the countries that are doing best at fostering economic mobility are liberal ones like Canada and the countries of Scandinavia.

It's remarkable that these things tend to line up so neatly. You might have been tempted to guess that this wouldn't happen -- that, for example, the prescriptive governmental approach that gives rise to good public health would also burden entrepreneurship, thereby driving down social mobility; or that spending more on education would pull money away from health care, worsening statistics like life expectancy. But, instead, we see that the same states, countries, and regions tend to do well almost without regard to what aspect of life you look at, while states, countries, and regions that are in shambles in one factor tend to be in shambles nearly across the board.

As I mentioned, there's a high degree of correlation between socioeconomic success and liberalism. The question is why. Why does conservatism so often go arm-in-arm with dystopian societies like the American Deep South, portions of Latin America, and the Middle East? Why does liberalism tend to coincide with social and economic systems that have their act together?

The answer isn't immediately obvious. Maybe it's that liberal policies are simply better, so that when liberals run the show, you get great outcomes like Sweden, Canada, and Massachusetts. Or maybe it's that social dysfunction breeds paranoia, so that conservatism is an effect, not a cause. That makes some sense, since the uglier the society around you seems, the less you're going to want to yoke yourself to those people by way of "we're all in this together" liberal policies. Or maybe there's some other factor, like hot climates being bad for the brain, driving people in Mississippi and Saudi Arabia a bit nuts (a scary notion, in light of global warming).

I'm not sure what, exactly, is going on. However, it does strike me as reasonable to at least operate on the theory that liberal policies might be partly responsible for the good outcomes in liberal areas. That makes far more sense than the conservative approach of trying to drive US policy farther away from the models we see in countries and states where things are actually going well.
 
Last week I posted about both public health and education. What I found fascinating is how closely the two issues tracked. In both cases, the US trailed other wealthy nations, but in both cases there was a huge disparity between the best US states (which would rank among the top nations), and the worst (with rankings that sometimes put them alongside poverty-stricken third-world nations). And, interestingly, the successes and failures on the two lists were mostly identical. The states that do well are, for the most part, deep-blue states (plus, oddly, Utah), while the states that do poorly are the deep red states. Internationally, the leading countries tend to be liberal ones, as well (Northern and Western Continental Europe, plus Canada and Japan), while the countries that do poorly tend to be conservative.

If you take a look at social and economic mobility stats, you'll see the same pattern:

http://www.salon.com/2013/07/22/blue_states_are_better_for_upward_mobility/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_mobility
http://www.verisi.com/resources/prosperity-upward-mobility.htm

Within the US, the places where the bad luck of being born poor matters least include cities in the deep blue states (plus, oddly Utah), while internationally the countries that are doing best at fostering economic mobility are liberal ones like Canada and the countries of Scandinavia.

It's remarkable that these things tend to line up so neatly. You might have been tempted to guess that this wouldn't happen -- that, for example, the prescriptive governmental approach that gives rise to good public health would also burden entrepreneurship, thereby driving down social mobility; or that spending more on education would pull money away from health care, worsening statistics like life expectancy. But, instead, we see that the same states, countries, and regions tend to do well almost without regard to what aspect of life you look at, while states, countries, and regions that are in shambles in one factor tend to be in shambles nearly across the board.

As I mentioned, there's a high degree of correlation between socioeconomic success and liberalism. The question is why. Why does conservatism so often go arm-in-arm with dystopian societies like the American Deep South, portions of Latin America, and the Middle East? Why does liberalism tend to coincide with social and economic systems that have their act together?

The answer isn't immediately obvious. Maybe it's that liberal policies are simply better, so that when liberals run the show, you get great outcomes like Sweden, Canada, and Massachusetts. Or maybe it's that social dysfunction breeds paranoia, so that conservatism is an effect, not a cause. That makes some sense, since the uglier the society around you seems, the less you're going to want to yoke yourself to those people by way of "we're all in this together" liberal policies. Or maybe there's some other factor, like hot climates being bad for the brain, driving people in Mississippi and Saudi Arabia a bit nuts (a scary notion, in light of global warming).

I'm not sure what, exactly, is going on. However, it does strike me as reasonable to at least operate on the theory that liberal policies might be partly responsible for the good outcomes in liberal areas. That makes far more sense than the conservative approach of trying to drive US policy farther away from the models we see in countries and states where things are actually going well.

One area where the dysfunction pattern isn't as clear is violent crime. Unlike with so many other stats, it's not the case that deep blue states are nearly all doing very well and deep red ones are doing very poorly. The reason for this is likely urbanization. Generally speaking, violent crime rates rise with population density. People in a big city will kill more often than people out in rural areas where social interactions are less frequent, resulting in fewer opportunities for social friction sparking violence. And so, a few of the lowest-crime states are deep red, like Montana (where only 55.9% of people live in cities, the largest of which is hardly even a major city, with only 100,000 people, ) while some of the highest-crime states are deep blue, like Maryland (where 87.2% live in cities, the largest of which is well over six times bigger than the largest in Montana).

However, when you compare similarly urbanized red and blue areas, you'll find that violent crime tends to be low among the blue areas, and high among the red. All the New England states, for example, are among those with the 15 lowest murder rates in the nation, ranging from the nation's lowest murder rate, in rural New Hampshire, to the 15th-lowest in highly-urbanized Connecticut. On the other end of the spectrum, nearly every red state that has large, dense cities is among the most violent states, with Louisiana being the worst. The Deep South, the most conservative part of the country, is universally more violent than the national average.... which is particularly noteworthy when you recall that some of the Deep Southern states are not highly urbanized. For example, Mississippi, where less than half the population lives in cities, would ordinarily be expected to have very little crime, akin to what we see in Northern New England, and instead is among the nation's worst bloodbaths.

And, of course, as most people know, murder rates are much lower among the various liberal nations of Northern and Western Continental Europe, as well as Japan and Canada.

On a side note, Utah is, yet again, a weird exception. It's urbanized and highly conservative, which would normally mean a high murder rate, but its murder rate is somewhat below average. So, when it comes to social mobility, education, health, and crime, it's an exception to the general rule. I think of this as the "Mormon exception." Say what you want about the silliness of Mormon theology and the backwards nature of predominant Mormon culture, but they sure seem to have figured out a rare way of indulging in conservatism without the normal socioeconomic train-wreck that usually accompanies it. I wonder if this is, in part, because the Mormon Church is so dominant, relative to the size of the population, that it is able to fill the role that is normally played by "Big Government" in more liberal areas (e.g., collecting high "taxes" in the form of tithes, and using those for community building and poverty remediation, as well as providing some forms of central economic planning).
 
not sure what your point is here . . .

that ever escalating "social safety net" wealth transfers don't do any good?

or that personal effort, as in the case of barack obama, marco rubio, elena kagan, clarence thomas - that character and hard work are immaterial?

please clarify
 
not sure what your point is here . . .

that ever escalating "social safety net" wealth transfers don't do any good?

or that personal effort, as in the case of barack obama, marco rubio, elena kagan, clarence thomas - that character and hard work are immaterial?

please clarify

I think you'd have one helluva time trying to make the case that Clarence Thomas's health is merely a function of HIS personal effort. Although.....I'd not be surprised to hear Clarence trying making that case for himself!
 
not sure what your point is here . . .

that ever escalating "social safety net" wealth transfers don't do any good?

or that personal effort, as in the case of barack obama, marco rubio, elena kagan, clarence thomas - that character and hard work are immaterial?

please clarify

Clearly his point was that Liberal states and countries are light years ahead of Conservative states and countries.
 
not sure what your point is here . . .

that ever escalating "social safety net" wealth transfers don't do any good?

or that personal effort, as in the case of barack obama, marco rubio, elena kagan, clarence thomas - that character and hard work are immaterial?

please clarify

No. Quite the opposite. Those states and countries with greatest hostility to social safety net spending are miserable places, whereas, for the most part, the places that take a liberal/progressive approach to policy tend to produce societies with fewer problems.
 
In other words, the same crap he pushes in every one of his verbal diarrhea eruptions...

Marvin, if you want to get serious about public policy, you'll need to find some way to cope with the DEMONSTRABLE FACT that places that have embraced more liberal policy-making are generally doing better than places that haven't. That doesn't prove that liberal policies are responsible for places like New England and Scandinavia out-performing places like Dixie and the Middle East, but it sure does create a challenge for conservative dogma. Rising to that challenge can't be done simply by dismissing the evidence as long-winded. It'll take actually learning to think. Good luck.
 
Marvin, if you want to get serious about public policy, you'll need to find some way to cope with the DEMONSTRABLE FACT that places that have embraced more liberal policy-making are generally doing better than places that haven't. That doesn't prove that liberal policies are responsible for places like New England and Scandinavia out-performing places like Dixie and the Middle East, but it sure does create a challenge for conservative dogma. Rising to that challenge can't be done simply by dismissing the evidence as long-winded. It'll take actually learning to think. Good luck.

As I've indicated, if you were to ever address the other side of every argument you make, you might be perceived as something other than a more verbose version of the other lefty hacks we have around here. As it is, you've yet to go there...
 
You are free to describe how great life is in Mississippi or Iraq, or any Conservative state or country of your choice. The subjects are health and education.

Or economic mobility or crime or divorce or teen pregnancy or or obesity or incarceration rates. It's really quite interesting how the same basic pattern shows up on one indicator after another.... other things being equal, I expect to see that liberal states and countries do well, and conservative states and countries do poorly (with the recurrent exception of Utah -- go figure).
 
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