Yes, The First Debate Was A Big Romney Win

[ARMCX1]

I define the winner and loser of the first debate according to whether the candidates polling numbers went up or down in response to the first Romney -- Obama debate.

The polling reflects a very big Romney win in the first debate.

According to Real Clear Politics, Obama had a +3.1% lead in the national aggregate polling on the day of the debate. One week later, Romney has taken the lead in the national aggregate polling by +0.7% -- a gain of +3.8% for Romney. In aggregate polling, this is a very large change in Romney's numbers, and the clearest indicator of how big Romney's debate victory over Obama really was.

In the swing states, OH, which had gone into the lean Obama column before the debate is now back in the toss up column, along with MO, which had leaned Romney but is now regarded as a toss up. In the same time interval, NH moved from a toss up to leans Obama.

Specifically: current RCP swing state aggregate polling; the numbers in parenthesis show what statewide aggregate polling was on the day of the debate.

CO -- Romney +0.5% (Obama +2.8%)
IA -- Obama +3.2% (Obama +3.5%)
NV -- Obama +0.7% (Obama +5.5%)
OH -- Obama +0.8% (Obama +5.5%)
FL -- Romney +0.7% (Obama +1.6%)
MO -- Romney +5.2% (Romney +5.2%)
NC -- Romney +3.0% (Romney +0.8%)
VA -- Obama +0.3% (Obama +2.0%)

The current RCP electoral college projects a final outcome based upon current statewide aggregate polling:

Obama 294 EC votes
Romney 244 EC votes

On the day of the debate, Obama had a projected 88 EC vote majority. Today, Obama's EC vote majority is 50.

 

[GordonGecko]

The Right DESPERATELY want to cite the polls.....but they spent all last week telling us "ALL the polls are biased, don't trust them!" and know how hypocritical they'll look doing it.

 

[JuliefromOhio]

these two are a puzzler:

along with MO, which had leaned Romney but is now regarded as a toss up. In the same time interval, NH moved from a toss up to leans Obama.

Missouri as a toss up?

 

[ARMCX1]

You can see the PJ Cons inching toward polling posts (several have done so already) now that the numbers are more to their liking. I suppose that last weeks debate is an example of how much impact a debate can have on the electoral dynamics. I think of 1960, 1976 and 1980 as historical examples of influential debates that possibly altered the outcome of an election.

 

[ARMCX1]

these two are a puzzler:

along with MO, which had leaned Romney but is now regarded as a toss up. In the same time interval, NH moved from a toss up to leans Obama.

Missouri as a toss up?

Personally, I don't see MO as fertile Obama territory but RCP data is what it is.

 

[ARMCX1]

Personally, I don't see MO as fertile Obama territory but RCP data is what it is.

It's possible the McCaskill Akin race is having a negative upticket impact on Romney/Ryan -- although Romney's MO numbers remain unchanged in the last week.