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Arkady asks a very good question.....and I'll answer it.....

Z

Zarathustra

Council Member
It's called the Kontradtiev(Kontradieff) Wave.

How can you multiply the monetary base by four times in a five year period and still not get a substantial recovery?

Google it up an find out.

Salaam aleikum!
 
Zarathustra said:
It's called the Kontradtiev(Kontradieff) Wave.

How can you multiply the monetary base by four times in a five year period and still not get a substantial recovery?

Google it up an find out.

Salaam aleikum!
Click to expand...
Spending money we don't have.
 
Zarathustra said:
It's called the Kontradtiev(Kontradieff) Wave.

How can you multiply the monetary base by four times in a five year period and still not get a substantial recovery?

Google it up an find out.

Salaam aleikum!
Click to expand...

Well Kontradtiev Wave is not all that well accepted.
 
It all depends where the "hot" money goes first.

If most of the hot money goes to buy YEN/EURO, or Greek/Spanish Bonds, then it would have little to no effect on U.S in short term.
 
i be the first to admit i'm no expert on the K-wave.

that said, if you "multiply the monetary base" - then spend on consumables rather than investments which create lasting jobs, or send products to export markets, you will be disappointed in the results.

we are spending money to cushion people from working and investing sanely. there are a considerable number of people who's "old jobs" are NEVER coming back . . .

- that small army of "real estate bubble" appraisers and salesmen we never needed
- detroit autoworkers who won't relocate and cling to the idea that the shuttered GM, Ford, and Chrysler assembly plants will re-open, even as japanese and korean automakers build modern factories thousands of miles away in reasonable wage/low tax locations

- the number of factory workers overall is declining as production moves out of the US, Japan, and Western Europe into fast developing places like China, Africa, and Latin America

- some service jobs - accountants, tax return preparers, attorneys who draft wills; bank tellers, telephone operators - will continue to be in jeopardy by ever improving software. the only people who go to H&R Block are those who are illiterate or don't have a credit card to buy tax software.

- there is (allegedly) a farm worker shortage that can (allegedly) only be solved through "immigration reform". why does this lead me to suspect that we are just around the corner from another TV or film expose on the exploitation of migrant farm workers with substandard housing, health care, and wages - problems that congress will then declare it needs to "fix" more legislation?
 
Wahbooz said:
Well Kontradtiev Wave is not all that well accepted.
Click to expand...

Not well accepted by who?.......all the guys who have no explanation why the most massive monetary creation in US history cannot generate a real recovery? All the limpdick academics of the Ivy League combined are not worth Nikolai Kontradatiev's little finger. But seeing as Stalin executed him for "reactionary" thought, we should not expect our Maobamists to know his theory.
 
Zarathustra said:
Not well accepted by who?.......all the guys who have no explanation why the most massive monetary creation in US history cannot generate a real recovery? All the limpdick academics of the Ivy League combined are not worth Nikolai Kontradatiev's little finger. But seeing as Stalin executed him for "reactionary" thought, we should not expect our Maobamists to know his theory.
Click to expand...

A large number of economists. "Maobamists", there you go, perfectly defining yourself. Stalin executing someone, anyone, is not exactly something that causes someone to rise up and take a place on a pedestal; since millions were the victims of Stalin.

First of all, even among those economists who accept K-Waves, there has been no consistent agreement about the cause, the beginning, or the ending of such waves. Kind of like fudging the books when you do a financial statement; seeing data that doesn't even exist. So you can make your ridiculous 'limpdick' statements about Mao all you want, that just shows you're not willing to put forth something worthwhile to change someone's opinion.
 
First of all you need to comprehend this:

Kondratiev provided the single best theory of mass psychology ever proposed. Not even Gustav LeBon's "the Crowd" is the equal of Kontradiev's theory. Mass psychology is what is being expressed in global economics. Mass psychology is what leads to social movements. Mass psychology leads to world wars. And its all described in Kondratiev's theory.

Read Dostoevsky's ..."Notes from Underground". Refresh yourself on Kondratiev.

Then come on back at talk to Z.

Das vadanya
 
The "Kondratiev Wave" theory, actually describes more positive outcomes than it does negative ones. Any screed founded on the idea that it's necessarily negative, is worthless .
 
fairsheet said:
The "Kondratiev Wave" theory, actually describes more positive outcomes than it does negative ones. Any screed founded on the idea that it's necessarily negative, is worthless .
Click to expand...

Kondratiev proposed a theory of collective human behavior. Positive and negative assumptions are really immaterial to his pursuit of truth. But your point is well taken.
 
Zarathustra said:
First of all you need to comprehend this:

Kondratiev provided the single best theory of mass psychology ever proposed. Not even Gustav LeBon's "the Crowd" is the equal of Kontradiev's theory. Mass psychology is what is being expressed in global economics. Mass psychology is what leads to social movements. Mass psychology leads to world wars. And its all described in Kondratiev's theory.

Read Dostoevsky's ..."Notes from Underground". Refresh yourself on Kondratiev.

Then come on back at talk to Z.

Das vadanya
Click to expand...

I suggest you fail to see there are too many variables to claim there are static cycles an economy goes through. Technological breakthroughs, as well as the credit cycles affect an economy, things Kondratiev saw very little of prior to his death. You simply can not pin down an economy into 50 or 60 year cycles.

Human behavior I'll accept, because that is what caused this recession we're coming out of; i.e. greed on the part of certain sectors of this economy. If certain events hadn't taken place, I do not believe we would have experienced any more than a soft cool down.
 
Zarathustra said:
Kondratiev proposed a theory of collective human behavior. Positive and negative assumptions are really immaterial to his pursuit of truth. But your point is well taken.
Click to expand...

I like that you apparently do appreciate Kondratiev, even as you might not reach the same conclusions from his ideas, as I do.
 
I think in the long term a lot of it comes down to politics. As a matter of fact, the U.S.'s bourgeois class is experiencing a substantial recovery. The stock market is at near record levels and real estate prices are rising. There is a simple explanation why this recovery isn't being shared in by the working class: the weakness of our unions.
 
EatTheRich said:
I think in the long term a lot of it comes down to politics. As a matter of fact, the U.S.'s bourgeois class is experiencing a substantial recovery. The stock market is at near record levels and real estate prices are rising. There is a simple explanation why this recovery isn't being shared in by the working class: the weakness of our unions.
Click to expand...

Which is why Goldschmidt says Kondratiev Wave has problems with it.

Different fundamental innovations and their economic stimuli should acc. to Goldschmidt (1.) do not exclude each other, (2.) they mostly vary in length, and (3.) their benefit is not applicable to all participants in a "market“.
 
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