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Did any pollsters get it right in 2016?

bdtex

bdtex

Administrator
Staff member
I got over the election the next day and didn't spend a lotta time parsing polls or arguing what went wrong with folks on my side. I vaguely recall that a couple of pollsters got it right in 2016. Folks on the right often cited them, for good reason it turned out. I can't recall the pollsters' names. One was based in California I think. Perhaps we should look for their names and what their numbers show right now. I completely understand Trump supporters challenging or even disregarding the polls but there were a couple that got it right. The one in California consistently showed Trump winning but it diverged so much from the others that everyone on my side of the aisle thought it was an outlier.
 
bdtex said:
I got over the election the next day and didn't spend a lotta time parsing polls or arguing what went wrong with folks on my side. I vaguely recall that a couple of pollsters got it right in 2016. Folks on the right often cited them, for good reason it turned out. I can't recall the pollsters' names. One was based in California I think. Perhaps we should look for their names and what their numbers show right now. I completely understand Trump supporters challenging or even disregarding the polls but there were a couple that got it right. The one in California consistently showed Trump winning but it diverged so much from the others that everyone on my side of the aisle thought it was an outlier.
Click to expand...

When it gets close to the election I always refer to Las Vegas and Irish betting odds. A week before the 2016 election Trump had almost caught Clinton. The weekend before the election Trump was a slight favorite. I knew by Election Day that Trump had a damn good chance to win. Right now, the guys who put their money where their mouth is have Biden as the heavy favorite.

But never underestimate Trump. Like a cornered rabid animal, he will do anything and everything to remain in power. Make sure to VOTE and make sure that your vote is received and counted by the registrar. Trump has installed a cooked scumbag to ratfvck the US Post Office. Take your ballot directly to the right place.

BTW: The late release by Comey that said the Clinton email investigation had been reopened no doubt cost Clinton the election. If Comey had released the information regarding the Russian investigation Trump would have lost. However Comey and the 9 angry Democrats Trumpists are always crying about did NOT leak regarding the Trump/Russia investigation. That’s why I am really flummoxed by the hatred Trump and his fans have for Comey. He handed Trump the friggin White House. Lol....Go figure???
 
Jack4freedom said:
When it gets close to the election I always refer to Las Vegas and Irish betting odds. A week before the 2016 election Trump had almost caught Clinton. The weekend before the election Trump was a slight favorite. I knew by Election Day that Trump had a damn good chance to win. Right now, the guys who put their money where their mouth is have Biden as the heavy favorite.

But never underestimate Trump. Like a cornered rabid animal, he will do anything and everything to remain in power. Make sure to VOTE and make sure that your vote is received and counted by the registrar. Trump has installed a cooked scumbag to ratfvck the US Post Office. Take your ballot directly to the right place.

BTW: The late release by Comey that said the Clinton email investigation had been reopened no doubt cost Clinton the election. If Comey had released the information regarding the Russian investigation Trump would have lost. However Comey and the 9 angry Democrats Trumpists are always crying about did NOT leak regarding the Trump/Russia investigation. That’s why I am really flummoxed by the hatred Trump and his fans have for Comey. He handed Trump the friggin White House. Lol....Go figure???
Click to expand...

In fact a lot of polls were very close by the end of October. Notice Trump's tweet on November 1st...he brags that the ABC/Washington post poll has him ahead by 1%.

www.newsweek.com

2016 Presidential Election: The Day in Polls

With one week to go, Clinton is forecast to win by large margins.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
Jack4freedom said:
When it gets close to the election I always refer to Las Vegas and Irish betting odds. A week before the 2016 election Trump had almost caught Clinton. The weekend before the election Trump was a slight favorite. I knew by Election Day that Trump had a damn good chance to win. Right now, the guys who put their money where their mouth is have Biden as the heavy favorite.

But never underestimate Trump. Like a cornered rabid animal, he will do anything and everything to remain in power. Make sure to VOTE and make sure that your vote is received and counted by the registrar. Trump has installed a cooked scumbag to ratfvck the US Post Office. Take your ballot directly to the right place.

BTW: The late release by Comey that said the Clinton email investigation had been reopened no doubt cost Clinton the election. If Comey had released the information regarding the Russian investigation Trump would have lost. However Comey and the 9 angry Democrats Trumpists are always crying about did NOT leak regarding the Trump/Russia investigation. That’s why I am really flummoxed by the hatred Trump and his fans have for Comey. He handed Trump the friggin White House. Lol....Go figure???
Click to expand...
You don't recall any pollster being right in 2016? That was my question. I pay no attention to the betting markets.
 
bdtex said:
That article is dated 11/1/16. The election was 11/8/16.
Click to expand...

Yup. I remember it well. My point was the accuracy of the polls. Repubs insist that the polls were way off and predicting Hillary's win even up to election day. That isn't true. Many polls were very close to the results....within the margin of error.
 
bdtex said:
You don't recall any pollster being right in 2016? That was my question. I pay no attention to the betting markets.
Click to expand...

A lot of them had Clinton to win by 2-3 points in the popular vote, which was fairly accurate. However the oddsmakers took into consideration the electoral college and realized that Trump had a much better chance to win several states by very small margins while losing the popular vote by millions and thus made him a slight favorite on the weekend before Election Day. If the oddsmakers have Trump down big on the weekend before Election Day he is most likely toast. I look for Trump to pull some major bullshit before the vote by using his lackeys in the DOJ or the State Department which probably won’t work, but who knows?
 
Jack4freedom said:
When it gets close to the election I always refer to Las Vegas and Irish betting odds. A week before the 2016 election Trump had almost caught Clinton. The weekend before the election Trump was a slight favorite. I knew by Election Day that Trump had a damn good chance to win. Right now, the guys who put their money where their mouth is have Biden as the heavy favorite.

But never underestimate Trump. Like a cornered rabid animal, he will do anything and everything to remain in power. Make sure to VOTE and make sure that your vote is received and counted by the registrar. Trump has installed a cooked scumbag to ratfvck the US Post Office. Take your ballot directly to the right place.

BTW: The late release by Comey that said the Clinton email investigation had been reopened no doubt cost Clinton the election. If Comey had released the information regarding the Russian investigation Trump would have lost. However Comey and the 9 angry Democrats Trumpists are always crying about did NOT leak regarding the Trump/Russia investigation. That’s why I am really flummoxed by the hatred Trump and his fans have for Comey. He handed Trump the friggin White House. Lol....Go figure???
Click to expand...

LMAO..............Putin is wanting to work with Biden 2020 due to Libs and Communist with so much in command!

Dems & Indies handed Trump the White House, there's NOT enough republicans to do that.............Biden thinks he's running for the Senate :)
 
Dawg said:
LMAO..............Putin is wanting to work with Biden 2020 due to Libs and Communist with so much in command!

Dems & Indies handed Trump the White House, there's NOT enough republicans to do that.............Biden thinks he's running for the Senate :)
Click to expand...

Well see who is laughing after the votes are counted Dawg. Not too many Dems and independents are voting for Trump this time. However there are tons of Republicans coming out publicly and endorsing Joe. Putin is obviously trying to help out his butt buddy Donald by trying to paint him as a Commie. Looks pretty bad at this point for Donnie and Vlad. Even Trumps new, less orange more gold paint job isn’t working.
 
middleview said:
Yup. I remember it well. My point was the accuracy of the polls. Repubs insist that the polls were way off and predicting Hillary's win even up to election day. That isn't true. Many polls were very close to the results....within the margin of error.
Click to expand...
Close doesn't matter...when you're WRONG.
 
1602553686476.png
PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)Spread
Final Results------48.246.13.31.1Clinton +2.1
RCP Average11/2 - 11/7----45.542.24.71.9Clinton +3.3
Bloomberg11/4 - 11/6799 LV3.5444142Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking11/4 - 11/71026 LV3.1434582Trump +2
Economist/YouGov11/4 - 11/73677 LV--454152Clinton +4
ABC/Wash Post Tracking11/3 - 11/62220 LV2.5474341Clinton +4
FOX News11/3 - 11/61295 LV2.5484432Clinton +4
Monmouth11/3 - 11/6748 LV3.6504441Clinton +6
Gravis11/3 - 11/616639 RV1.0474332Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl11/3 - 11/51282 LV2.7444062Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos11/2 - 11/62196 LV2.3423963Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports11/2 - 11/61500 LV2.5454342Clinton +2
CBS News11/2 - 11/61426 LV3.0454152Clinton
+4
 
protectionist said:
View attachment 57176
PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)Spread
Final Results------48.246.13.31.1Clinton +2.1
RCP Average11/2 - 11/7----45.542.24.71.9Clinton +3.3
Bloomberg11/4 - 11/6799 LV3.5444142Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking11/4 - 11/71026 LV3.1434582Trump +2
Economist/YouGov11/4 - 11/73677 LV--454152Clinton +4
ABC/Wash Post Tracking11/3 - 11/62220 LV2.5474341Clinton +4
FOX News11/3 - 11/61295 LV2.5484432Clinton +4
Monmouth11/3 - 11/6748 LV3.6504441Clinton +6
Gravis11/3 - 11/616639 RV1.0474332Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl11/3 - 11/51282 LV2.7444062Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos11/2 - 11/62196 LV2.3423963Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports11/2 - 11/61500 LV2.5454342Clinton +2
CBS News11/2 - 11/61426 LV3.0454152Clinton
+4
Click to expand...

So you agree with me...the polls were not far off.
 
middleview said:
A number of the polls were very close to correct, given the margin of error is 3% and Hillary actually won the popular vote by 2%.

This time it isn't close. Biden is up by 12%.
Click to expand...
1. Hillary lost the AMERICAN popular vote (popular vote minus illegal aliens)

2. Generally, Republicans don't answer polls. A Democrat being up 12% could be a Republican being up 25%.

Hopefully, there will be some way of actually determining the winner, since the young people are making such a mess out of our electoral system, just like they've done with professional sports, telephones, etc
 
protectionist said:
View attachment 57176
PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)Spread
Final Results------48.246.13.31.1Clinton +2.1
RCP Average11/2 - 11/7----45.542.24.71.9Clinton +3.3
Bloomberg11/4 - 11/6799 LV3.5444142Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking11/4 - 11/71026 LV3.1434582Trump +2
Economist/YouGov11/4 - 11/73677 LV--454152Clinton +4
ABC/Wash Post Tracking11/3 - 11/62220 LV2.5474341Clinton +4
FOX News11/3 - 11/61295 LV2.5484432Clinton +4
Monmouth11/3 - 11/6748 LV3.6504441Clinton +6
Gravis11/3 - 11/616639 RV1.0474332Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl11/3 - 11/51282 LV2.7444062Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos11/2 - 11/62196 LV2.3423963Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports11/2 - 11/61500 LV2.5454342Clinton +2
CBS News11/2 - 11/61426 LV3.0454152Clinton
+4
Click to expand...
There ya go. We have a winner. I was wondering when someone would post that. Now we can get this thread rolling. Here's the same one with a 2-way race.

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com
 
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