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Don't let them fool ya, the Right isn't as confident as they pretend...

GordonGecko

GordonGecko

President
InTrade has "Romney will win" "stock" at $4.12 a share (i.e. 41.2% chance he will win the election)

But ask the "confident" how much they have bought?....and it's

zero shares.


No explanation...and naturally, they will immediately want to ask the reverse. But I'd say the same thing to anybody who is saying "absolutely, positively President Obama will be re-elected".

Thing is....I thought the Right has all the odds on their favor???
 
The confidence in Romney is derived from the Democrats over confidence. That and the fact that nobody who supports the President is willing to talk about him.
 
SOL....$4.12 a share.....that means a BIG payoff for anybody buying NOW...

come November 7th.

How many shares can we put you down for??? :)
 
You can put me all in (I am actually not even sure what your talking about as far as "shares" go) but another four years of this the entire country will be as fiscally sound as California.....sooooooo.......there you have it.
 
Yep. InTrade is the best check on the rhetoric of each side, since only when people have to put their money where their mouths are do they really make honest assessments. For my own part, I've thought about buying Romney since I'd put his chances higher (48%?), but I'll wait and see if he dips below $4. So much can happen between now and November that we're still in "shot in the dark" territory.
 
Before ya run off to buy the champagne supply for November's victory party, remember that Barack Obama is still a very dangerous man, the last two heads of state with his affliction, Narcisssistic Personality Disorder, were Joseph Stalin and Adolph Hitler.

For this is what he wants to bring to America's shores:

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/06/04/...the-banner-of-the-caliphate-over-the-vatican/

And fruits of the Arab Spring

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/06/04/graphic-video-tunisian-islamists-behead-christian-apostate/
 
What he's talking about is a futures market -- a legal way of speculating on political outcomes. Later, you can sell it, based on how the stock moves, or you can get the payoff at the point where the outcome is certain. So, let's say they were each at $5. If you bought one of each (one bet on Romney winning, one on Obama), then after the election one would pay out at $10 and the other at $0. You'd make nothing. In fact, after accounting for short-term capital gains and the cost of the trades, you'd lose money. But, let's say Romney's at $4.12 and that's the only one you buy. If he wins, it pay's $10. You more than doubled your money. Even after accounting for capital gains and trading price, you could make a serious killing on it. It's like taking the underdog in a sports bet.

Where it arguably differs from sports betting, is that it's meant to be a hedge... a bit like weathers futures, or commodity futures. If Romney gets elected, it's bound to have certain consequences on other things.... for example, it would probably help business for certain businesses that are in good with Romney, and others that tend to do well under Republicans generally (like Halliburton or polluting industries or defense contractors). So, if you have a lot of holdings positioned to do well if Romney wins, you could buy stock in an Obama victory, to offset your loss if Obama wins. Or, on the flip side, if you own a lot of things expected to do well if Obama wins (like green-energy-company stock), you could buy stock in a Romney victory, to offset your loss if that happens. So, it's not exactly gambling. But the great thing is that it acts as a reality check on all the media blather. The media can act like a particular political outcome is all but certain, but if it really were certain, the price would be about $10 for the stock, since there'd be almost no risk for the investment. In the case of Romney, right now the people who are putting their own money at risk, rather than just blowing hot air, are indicating an assumption that Romney is likely to lose.
 
They're not fooling me. Kinda hard to take the right seriously about anything these days.
 
Sickofleft said:
You can put me all in (I am actually not even sure what your talking about as far as "shares" go) but another four years of this the entire country will be as fiscally sound as California.....sooooooo.......there you have it.
Click to expand...

No...how much have YOU actually bought, SOL? Or....not that sure?
 
I'm still of the opinion they'll dump rMoney as soon as he can't make up ground with the ladies...he's around 13-15% behind Obama which is around what McRage was....no way he's wining with LESS votes from women and even less votes from Hispanics.

They'll dump rMoney and give their efforts to congress
 
Arkady said:
GordonGecko, let me know if I got any of that wrong.
Click to expand...

You nailed it....and it's the best proof that the Right is NOT as "confident" as they appear.

See, most of that confidence comes from what they hear in the Rightwing Media Echo Chamber (Drudge...Rasmussen...AM Radio...FOX) all telling them "Obama is toast" and they come here and regurgitate it on command.

But see many of THEM?...KNOW it's an "Echo Chamber" (or more graphically, the term for mutual group masturbation in a roundish conclave. :) ) and they know it's all b.s.

So....they keep their money safely under their mattress...and DON'T bet on the "sure thing" of Mitt Romney winning in November.
 
Sickofleft: That and the fact that nobody who supports the President is willing to talk about him.

LeRoy: Hey, I'm happy to talk about Obama till the cows come home. Right now, I'd give him a letter grade of B, or maybe a B-. Certainly not perfect, but a damned sight better than GWB, who gets an F, or a D- at best.

Right now, I'd give Rmoney about a 45% chance of winning. That's higher than InTrade, but not quite as high as Arkady's estimate of 48%. Will be able to give a more accurate probability when we see who Rmoney picks for his running mate. I think Rmoney's chances are trending up, because the entire global economy is looking pretty sickly. China, Brazil, and India are all slowing dramatically, and Europe is just a mess. That's all Obama's fault, of course. [Sarcasm detector should be in 'ON' position.]
 
As of this writing, those who put their money where their mouths are think there's a 53.9% chance Obama will be re-elected. If I thought that was an underestimate, I could buy it and when he won I'd get $10 -- a return of 85.53% on my investment. Let's say I buy $10,000 worth of Obama. That would be 1855.288 shares, which would be worth $18,552.88 if he won, meaning I'd make a profit of $8552.88... damned good money. I'm not making that trade because I'm not at all sure Obama will win.

If you think Romney will win, you can buy that at $4.15. That's an even bigger gain. For $10,000 you could buy 2409.639 shares, which would be worth $24,096.39 if he wins, for a profit of $14,096.39. If you think he's a lock to win it, easy money is a few clicks of your mouse away. You can have almost two and a half times your investment back in less than half a year. Mortgage your house and you could retire early.
 
Arkady said:
As of this writing, those who put their money where their mouths are think there's a 53.9% chance Obama will be re-elected. If I thought that was an underestimate, I could buy it and when he won I'd get $10 -- a return of 85.53% on my investment. Let's say I buy $10,000 worth of Obama. That would be 1855.288 shares, which would be worth $18,552.88 if he won, meaning I'd make a profit of $8552.88... damned good money. I'm not making that trade because I'm not at all sure Obama will win.

If you think Romney will win, you can buy that at $4.15. That's an even bigger gain. For $10,000 you could buy 2409.639 shares, which would be worth $24,096.39 if he wins, for a profit of $14,096.39. If you think he's a lock to win it, easy money is a few clicks of your mouse away. You can have almost two and a half times your investment back in less than half a year. Mortgage your house and you could retire early.
Click to expand...

Ahhh, but that would be a RISK.....if you weren't as completely "sure" of the President's defeat as one claims after listening to Mr Rush Limbaugh or reading the lastest Rasmussen poll....wouldn't it????

:)
 
I think you're right that the echo chamber of the conservative media gives right-wingers here a false sense of confidence. But even the mainstream corporate media gives a false sense. Their biggest vested interest is in covering a close match -- that's what makes most people tune in to election coverage. They want people to think the candidates are neck-and-neck for as long as possible, for the same reason a fight promoter wants you to think the combatants are evenly matched. They don't want to make people think that one candidate is considered by the "smart money" to be far more likely to win than the other. But that's the current situation. The smart money says Obama's about 30% more likely to win than Romney.

I wonder why that is, exactly. Clearly the polls don't suggest such a big advantage for Obama. Presumably the investors have their reasons, though. I wonder if it's based on wagers on what the economy will do this summer, or on state-by-state handicapping, or what.
 
Arkady: I wonder why that is, exactly. Clearly the polls don't suggest such a big advantage for Obama. Presumably the investors have their reasons, though. I wonder if it's based on wagers on what the economy will do this summer, or on state-by-state handicapping, or what.

LeRoy: I think it is much more likely based on state-by-state handicapping, especially of the swing states that will matter in the electoral college, than it is of "wagers on what the economy will do this summer". That last factor indeed is why Rmoney's chances have been trending up, especially since the release of the rather dismal jobs report last Friday. The entire world economy is looking very ill. A disorderly Greek exit from the Euro-zone might be all that's needed to torpedo Obama's chances of re-election, due to the knock-on effects on the American economy.
 
Arkady said:
I think you're right that the echo chamber of the conservative media gives right-wingers here a false sense of confidence.
Click to expand...

But that in itself is interesting. As I said, it's like THEY know they're listening to an "Echo Chamber"....that Rasmussen tells Drudge who tells Rush who tells them to go to Drudge which tells them to look at Rasmussen then it gets repeated as "There is a lot of talk on radio and on the Internet about a new Rasmussen poll" on Fox News. Just like it is EVERY election cycle...even 2006 and 2008.

And maybe that's why they are so angry....because they're so SCARED that all that "confidence" they're being fed is FALSE.
 
Don't let them fool ya, the Right isn't as confident as they pretend...
Click to expand...


True we are even more confident!......But seriously never under estimate the power of the Democrats to lie and claim victory( see Fla Ouch too soon?)...heck even last year they were claiming to be the Party of Lincoln and comparing themselves to Ronald Reagan.

I just wish that the majority of voters who do not pay attention to what goes on could hear or read what lefty on the P.J. has to say...I can think of no better endorsemnt for Romney.
 
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